Because the best things in life are free.

 
The Last Laugh

The International Herald Tribune drops the bomb Thursday about OPEC's decision to cut production. It's a bit of mystery if the newspaper's analysis is correct and Bush's attempt to look over the cartel's shadow caused the Organization to cut product with the thought that the US would gleefully flood the world oil market when Iraq was ready to go. However, a certain guerilla war is making this impossible. The OPEC states feel that their market share is decling and in many of those countries, oil export price determines the books. As a result, the inevitably of supply and demand means that OPEC will hold out on lower production until it figures out what is going on in Iraq. The threat Saddam Hussein would set it's wells on fire threatened to crush the economy, but now that there is no longer a fear of that, the cartel is moving against the "neocons" of the Bush Administration, who hope that Iraq will allow us to break free of the grip of foreign oil.

Alas, it may not be time to worry about lines at gas stations just yet, but there is an ominous problem to all this. Saudi Arabia current is the only state has enough oil resources to keep the market liquid. As the Saudis are part of OPEC, they largely determine just how liquid (no pun intended) the petroleum market it. The cut in production is due to hit just as winter energy costs rev up and more petroleum and refineries are dedicated to heating oil production. Although not the end of the world, the increased energy costs could really deal a severe blow to economic recovery until the weather warms in '04. It doesn't help that President Bush is seen as cozy, already, to the Texas energy firms like Enron and the Saudi royal family. In fact, unless Iraq is more or less ready to ramp up oil production to meet OPEC head on, the winter is going to be rather tough from an energy point of view. So much so that it would appear at least on Middle East geopolitics, OPEC gets the last laugh.
posted by Thomas at 10:58 PM 0 comments

 
Bush Country Antics

Don't expect John Whitmire of Houston to get any Christmas cards this year. After he returned to Texas, Governor Rick Perry called an unprecedented third special session of the Texas State Legislature. The much ballyhooed redistricting plan has been passed...in principle. So it appears that the Mastero of Texas politics, Tom DeLay has won. In his brutal chessmatch for control of the districts, the GOP is likely to dominate for a generation...except...a new challenge now haunts the Lone Star State. That's right, the Supreme Court is going to decide the merits of gerrymandering in January. As Republicans have ratched up attempts to redraw Congressional maps with whole cloth, the likelihood exists that it will toss aside the current precedent. In which case...sometime next year during the election the bomb is going to drop. The GOP won't be crippled for '04 in this regard, but it likely means that new bipartisan committees would be developed and balance the states out much more comprehensively.

But if we only told you the news that others regurgitate, what good would we be? So here's a surprise and underreported story: a federal judge was tossed off a case in South Florida after making comments about parties in the trial. Well moreover, Hoeveler has called into question the willingness of Gov. Jeb Bush and the Florida sugar industry to simply abide by legislation and judicial decisions demanding a clean up of the Everglades. If you wonder why this is important, consider...Jeb is hoping to push for strong support from the Florida sugar industry to secure Republican interests in the Sunshine State. The only problem is that the Everglades are slowly being poisoned by phosphate runoff from the sugar plants. By canning the judge, it could effectively mean the massive US Restudy project to rehabitiltate the 'glades could stall...and in 2004...Bush may be trapped trying to help his brother or save himself. This story definitely has some legs.
posted by Thomas at 10:34 PM 0 comments

 
ANWR Calling

With everyone waiting on the decision later today by the Ninth Circuit about the California Recall, Congress has been able to stoke the fires for another crack at ANWR. President Bush and the western GOP Senators are eager to use the blackout in August to prove that a more "comprehensive" energy policy be devised at the national level. Alas, the intention is good, but once again, the problem of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge remains. The amount of oil likely retrievable is not really going to affect the US petroleum market. The reason instead that Alaskans like it is that their economy has gone from industries like drilling (which is a solid middle class job in the Great White North) to fish processing, which pays decidedly less. Add to the fact that ecological damage could be high or nonexistent, and the fact that President Bush refuses to push for drilling in offshore sites in Florida which have more oil and you have the ultimate greater-good, lesser-good dichotomy. After all, with the exception of Pennsylvania and California, most states traditionally with big cities had to import energy from states with smaller populations. Now that Texas is among the most populous states, and California has stiffer environmental regulations, this situation has been turned on its head.

But before you turn your head away from this issue, it's important to understand why ANWR continually gets brought up. Recall again, that Alaska's economy is all but falling away, and that after Sen. Frank Murkowski became governor in 2002 he appointed his daughter Lisa to the Senate. On paper, it appears that this race could decide the US Senate in 2004, however the retirments of John Edwards, Zell Miller, Fritz Hollings, et alia in the South could make this a moot point. Also, don't forget, the Senate Democrats are on a roll lately, overturning both the new FCC rules on media ownership (resign now, Mr. Powell) and overtime pay mitigation. So there's definitiely the chance for a showdown before Bush heads to Thailand for the APEC summit in October. Of course, this story won't get nearly as much play as the $87 billion Dubya seeks for the continuation of the Franco-Prussian War in Iraq or Carol Mosely Braun's official announcement to run for President. Hell, even Wesley Clark is going to get more airtime. But the harsh reality of the blackout, the political stew boiling in Alaska, and the sight of tape loops of wild caribou before Christmas mean ANWR's back...on the table.
posted by Thomas at 12:07 AM 0 comments

 
Let Them Eat Cake

So while the Texas 11 now hunker down and wait to see what Rick Perry does next, and California voters await to see if Arnold Schwarzenegger will actually debate...and if and if and if....Hurrican Isabel makes landfall...President George Bush interrupted your Sunday Night Football telecast with an address to the country about the money required to rebuild Iraq and Afghnistan...all $87 billion of it. And Congress is ready to give him the cash if he explains what his buying with this allotment. So it would appear we are back to the 1980s except....

The Washington Post reports that a new poll says that the majority of the 'merican people want Bush to not spend the money...or if they do...repeal the tax cut. So it appears that while there are significant gradations on who is more likely to support it: Republican men to Democratic women...the telling development is that independents are not behind it, and men are almost evenly divided.

Though it would seem unlikely that Bush is all done for now...he definitely has created a serious monster that apparently is turning itself loose. And this time, Bush can't escape by saying "Let the taxpayers eat cake".
posted by Thomas at 7:57 PM 0 comments

 
Here Come the Zapatistas

World history makes a pit stop in Mexico this week as the world's free trade representatives land in Cancun for the World Trade Organization's Semiannual Ministerial Conference. So far the only funny, beach related protest has been peaceful. Having a world event at a beach resort during hurricane season seems odd enough, but to schedule during September 11 is just morbidly ironic. Add to that, it's an event about globalization in a country representing the best and worst about globalization: Mexico.

But let's not beat around the George Bush. The world trembles to hear what happens. First and foremost, most developing nations are desperate to have tarrifs and farm subsidies eliminated in the developed world. The USA and the Europeans are eager NOT to do that, and while it might seem that the developed nations are out of luck, you would be mistaken. For now most of them realise that their regimes are in trouble from the spectre of international terrorism. The infamous "19 hijackers" didn't murder 3,000 people in the name of Allah...they did it to force the Saudi Arabian royal family to realize, in the words of Czar Alexander II: "We can either abolish serfdom from above, or they will do it from below." Poor nations could easily compete with the US and Europe if the subsidies are gone on agriculture and other low tech products. This is what unions and other entrenched companies fear around the world.

But hey, it doesn't end there. The Bush Administration wants the People's Republic of China to stop fixing it's exchange rates so as to make American made manufacturing goods more affordable in China. The Chinese, of course, are all too happy to stick it to Bush for demonizing him over that spy plane two years ago. The Europeans would be more than happy to see that happen, but remember, much of their heavy industry now occurs in the developing world. But it's not just that Bush wants to be a hypocrite: he is scared about that 2004 thing and he knows that states with manufacturing jobs are restless...all too willing to toss him overboard. Having the Chinese take the hit saves him political capital, but with Iraq a war zone and Afghanistan falling into anarchy...he might be all out of bullets before too long.

And what about Cancun itself, a perfect metaphor for the uneasy globalized world. The economy is based on services( tourism) and faces the law of diminishing returns with a tricky balance to strike with the natural beauty and environmental impact that tourism brings. Add that Mexico is slowly being ripped apart by class war and those really high-minded rebels in Chiapas, and well .... on the one hand it's nothing new under the sun. On the other hand, an illiterate man in the developing world will base whether he joins the ranks of terrorism or starts a small business on just how much better his lot gets in the next year or so. For even Alexander II, the most progressive of all Russian czars, was killed by revolutionaries because despite abolishing feudal serfdom, most Russians were still starving... in 1862.

As the AP story says, the naked protestors may elicit a giggle, but the Zapatistans are on their way.
posted by Thomas at 11:22 PM 0 comments

 
Speaking of the Supreme Court...

The days are getting shorter, and so with the harvest about to be culled from the fields, this can only mean that the Supreme Court is ready to start another term. It is true that the Supreme Court is gearing up for another term, and they are going to be in session tomorrow. However, it's overtime for the justices. FEC v. McConnell or should we say The United States Federal Elections Commission v. Sen. Mitchell McConnell rolls into the docket tomorrow morning. Due to fact that the current session ends by the start of the next one (October 8th), campaign fundraisers, politicians, television stations, interest groups, and even you and I wait with baited breath. And even more ironically, the leadoff arguments will be between noted Federalist Society members: Ken Starr for the opposition and Ted Olson for the FEC. It can't get any weirder than this. Ken Starr, the man who hunted Bill Clinton for years as the Independent Counsel for the US Congress, walks into court to face the Solicitor General of the United States. Olson got the job because Bush signed the Bipartsian Campaign Reform Act with a great deal of anguish. As the Solicitor General, he must defend the Executive Office which is ultimately...yup the Federal Elections Commission.

But the plotline is anyone's guess about how the judges will rule. Neverthless, as the court of last appeal, the law will either be cut down, remanded, or otherwise refit to the US Supreme Court's instructions. The impact will be huge as Howard Dean has hinted me might opt out of public campaign financing and fight Bush head-to-head in a money primary. Bush is seen as grudgingly supporting the BCRA and so either way it is a defeat for him in some capacity. Either he loses in name, or he loses the ability to use more "soft money". The ways things are going, Bush might actualy hope for something with a non-military victory. After all, he nearly is begging for more money for the war in Iraq and has nothing to show for it. But it's also quite fitting that the start of the 2004 campaign season begins with the Supreme Court, just as 2000's election ended in the chambers of....the Supreme Court.


posted by Thomas at 4:42 PM 0 comments

 
Packing the Bench

Filling the federal judiciary with like-minded people has been a Presidential prerogative since oh, I dunno, Marbury v. Madison? Dubya, in his hopes of finding just those people who think akin to him, had selected Miguel Estrada as a person to nominate to a federal circuit court in the hopes of promoting him to the Supreme Court whenever someone decides to retire. Estrada isn't popular because he never has written an opinion on abortion or anything else. As a result, the Senate has nothing to ask him about when it comes to decide if he's open to constitutional interpretation or not. Estrada was also sort of an attempt at Bush Affirmative Action, putting token minorities into high places to claim a committment to diversity. The story was out earlier Thursday, and we only amend a link for you here.

So what made all the Democrats willing to use the fillibuster on this guy besides the overriding abortion issue that writes checks from the National Organization of Women and the Family Research Council? The answer is in part the Federalist Society, which was started by Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham during his days in law school. The Federalist Society is many things to many people, but they also do a great job of being the modern-day fount of strict constructionism. Now, the funny part is not that a bunch of white men in the tree house can stick to this model. Indeed, liberal law students only founded the rival American Constitution Society in 1999. The humor comes from the fact that Bush has scoured long and hard to name federal judiciary nominees that sound like they were picked by Karl Rove:

Priscilla Owen (female justice) from Texas, Bill Pryor (Alabama Attorney General), Caroline Kuhl (woman jurist), and Charles Pickering of Miss-uh-sippi. Pickering made those choice comments about black people that he seemingly can't recall. Who knows, maybe it's not true. Owen, of course, was selected after Clinton had made his own selection but the Republican Senators from Texas, Jon Cornyn and Kay Bailey Hutchinson refused to submit his form (which they have to) to the Senate Judiciary Committe. Pryor is a embroiled in the Ten Commandments spat in Alabama, and Kuhl has yet to surface on the radar. Conservative justices all, and all aimed at a swing vote consitutency.

Now the irony comes when the Post then adds an editorial that is doleful of how smear politics worked. The New York Times countered with an opinion so defensive of state power it sounded like it was secretly written by Robert Byrd. Luckily, there was no mention of the "Republic", Marcus Tullius Cicero, the Twelve Tables, the Rostrum, or even the populares and optimates. However, Gaius Ambulator Bush finds himself in a tricky situation, needing to either call up another replacement from his ever thinning depth chart or to wait until after 2004 to suggest a "new guy". Bush really just wants someone to be ready when Rehnquist, O'Connor, or even Anthony Kennedy give it up. And he'll kick himself if John Paul Stevens resigns and he doesn't get a chance to blast the last vestiges of the Ford Administration from the US government. But let's face facts: Senate Democrats have to at least respect the person El Presidente Arbusto sends to the floor for a vote. And if Bush can't pack the bench, is it safe to say his influence has faded to where he needs to pack his bags instead?

That question, we find out, has only begun to be answered.



posted by Thomas at 10:29 PM 0 comments

 
Curtains for the Texas 11?

The Dallas Morning News broke this story late day about how one of the "fugitive" Texas state senators, John Whitmire, is going to leave exile in Albuquerque and return to Houson. To hear them tell it, the game is up and the Democrats are finished. In fact, even the Washington Post seems to convey that it's time for an exit strategy. Nevertheless, this isn't quite the full story.

Effectively, when the measure to redistrict appeared at the end of the regular session of the Texas Congress, 50 House member bolted for Oklahoma, with Tom DeLay in hot pursuit. DeLay pressured Gov. Rick Perry to call special sessions. At the first special sessions, the Democrats, who comprise 12 of the 31 state senate seats in Texas, refused to put the issue on the ballot. Frustrated, Lt. Gov. Dave Dewhurst amended the Congressional Rules to allow measures to come to the Senate floor in the second special section with a simple majority instead of a two thirds vote. Hence 11 of the 12 Democrats bolted to the Albuquerque Marriott. This destroyed quorum, and caused the second session to collapse on August 26th. Whitmire actually returned home over the weekend to Houston, where his district buffets the northern reaches of the city and suburbs of Harris County. But nevertheless, quorum isn't established until Whitmire returns to Austin. There's reason to think that unless he's arrested Whitmire might not be doing that: “I just don’t understand the rationale of staying in New Mexico when we’re not in session,” he said. So hypothetically there is the possibility that arrest could happen, but it's also likely that he could book a flight back to Albuquerque. After all, Whitmire was in his district all weekend and saw no shenanigans. It's also evident that Perry has aggravated people by having two special sessions in a row. As the Texas Congress isn't schedule to convene again until January of 2005, it's safe to say this battle isn't over just yet.

Sen. Ken Armbrister had been the Andrew Johnson among his colleague, preparing apparently to show that at least he wasn't backing down. The other 10 aren't leaving just yet...and who can blame them. New Mexico governor Tony Richardson still has a few mind games to play with Tom DeLay. Perry still has to call another special session and see what the Democrats do. Furthermore, the 2/3 clause would have to be suspended...again....so before you think it's over, don't.

posted by Thomas at 10:04 PM 0 comments

 
That Which Doesn't Matter and That Which Does

Wonder why I never mention the California Recall? Reason being...the election has minimal importance on what happens in the state, but at the same time, it's also because none of the candidates will likely win in '06. Gray Davis also might yet pull it out, so if that is the case, neither Cruz Bustamente, Ahnold, or Tom McClintock has a political future left. Furthermore, Schwarzengger refuses to anything but the most minimal number of debates. Who does this remind you of...perhaps a primary warrior named George W. Bush? Yes that's right, don't be fooled: this race is really between two robotic, career politicians in Bustamente and McClintock. Schwarzenegger has been the media darling so far, but the longer this campaign goes...the less substance he will be able to provide and look a lot like Will Ferrell on Saturday Night Live saying "strategery".

So onto a story of mind-numbing complexity and importance to the future of the world. President Bush has sent Treasury Secretary John Snow to China on the hopes of getting Beijing to stop fixing the exchange rate between US and Chinese currency. In the Bush White House, this measure is seen as crucial to help making American-made manufacturing products more competitive worldwide. The Chinese have promised the following. Of course, there's no certainty yet as to the successfulness of the strategy. The problem is, Bush seemingly doesn't have a whole lot of other ideas how to revive the job market, especially in manufacturing.

So why, you ask, does it seem that all our jobs have gone to immigrant workers, outsourced, downsized, or just generally retired off? Well, the answer is that the idea of "skilled labor" has largely gone by the wayside. Firms that never would have operated plants, or outsourced to the Third World are willing to. Part of the reason is that the Cold War prevented many emerging economies from being competitive areas to run firms from. Don't get the wrong idea though: The firms are still operated by Americans, Europeans, and Japanese in the board room, but the underlings frequently become the lowest bidder. The flip side is that products do become cheaper on the world stage, but suddenly you have to find new jobs for the people you expect will buy those goods. In the US, this means that the majority of these people have gone into services, and with only limited success. How any person plans to stop the bleeding is a good question, but for Bush it could be a life-or-death political issue as well.

posted by Thomas at 9:33 PM 0 comments