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A Million Mogadishus?

Columbia University's most reviled assistant professor, Nicholas De Genova, turned out the be smartest one of them all. For after all, he stated "I wish for a million Mogadishus" at an anti-war teach-in the university held in Low Library on an otherwise quiet Wednesday night in the City. Columbia President (and recent affirmative action defendant from his stint at Michigan) Lee Bollinger distanced himself from the remarks. Historian Eric Foner, the organizer, looked askance at what the green academic said. De Genova tried numerous times to explain what he meant in op-eds and other correspondence. He was drowned out.

And now it really doesn't matter after all. For while "Black Hawk Down" cost then-Defense Secretary's Les Aspin his job, we doubt Don Rumsfeld is going to retire for the last time groundfire brought down a heliocopter and killed approximately the same number of troops as in 1993. Or the time before that, or the time before that. As the BBC surmises nicely, the Iraqi resistance has gotten good and picking off the weakest link in the American military chain: heliocopters. Forget car bombs, assassination ploys, or the "weapons of mass destruction". At this point, the Iraqis have found the principal weakness of the post-war occupation. With a nation's infrastructure more or less in tatters, heliocopters provide an essential means to transfer material and personnel into remote locations. A great idea, but remember, "peppering the LZ"? Remember the fear of the shot coming up from the jungle and into the huey? Well this time, it's not so much a question of shooting at random: it's that given the rather fuel inefficient nature of heliocopters, a bit of practice means any militia could learn how to shoot them down. The birds can't go very far without needing more fuel, and they leave the tank exposed to the ground.

And so, this is precisely the point Mr. De Genova was making. Will a million Mogadishus (18 million troop casulties), convince the American war machine to stop? How much blood on our nose will be enough to have us disengage? As it stands, the government believes there will be an armed presence in the country until 2006. Figure that in first half of November, thirty-nine heliocopter fatalities have been disclosed. If that number doubles in a month it will be seventy eight per month. Should American forces stay until July of 2006 that is thirty-three months left of military occupation (or presence if you prefer). That would equal 2,574 deaths by heliocopter-related attacks alone. A drop in the bucket compared to Vietnam, but a sign that the American military machine may need to reconsider its Achilles heel, the heliocopter. Incidentially, if the pace of attacks stablizes there would be only on the order of 198 heliocopters shot down. So if you are hoping for a million Mogadishus, it likely won't occur. Or more precisely, it won't occur in Iraq but who knows what regime may be next?


posted by Thomas at 2:16 AM 0 comments