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Defense is the Name of the Game

One strategic reason Tom DeLay might have resigned this week is that he has reason to think the Supreme Court will reverse his mid-decade redistricting map that help cement the GOP’s majority in Congress. The logic behind it goes something like this: Texas had a Congressional delegation full of Democrats because of older gerrymandering before the rebirth of the Republicans in the South. DeLay and associates fashioned a new map that didn’t just make seats competitive… incumbent candidates found themselves running against each other. The net impact is that five white, male Democrats: Max Sandlin, Nick Lampson, Charlie Stenholm, Chris Bell and Martin Frost, found themselves out of a job.

But now, Lampson has run in DeLay’s old district because DeLay weakened it to help make the new districts easier for freshmen Republicans to win. Most of the other ousted Dems are not going to run.

But imagine for a moment the old map is brought back…the Republican incumbents are still incumbents now…and Texas 22nd…home to one Thomas DeLay…switches to a more Republican composition. Lampson is also ineligible, living in Galveston. That kills much of the moxie Lampson had not just running against an unpopular DeLay, but also his ability to go nationally to raise money for other Democrats not unlike Barack Obama in 2004.

Remember too that the Democrats need approximately sixteen seats to regain the House. The Republicans used the Texas redistricting not to gain districts, but offset falloff from their strong showing in 2002. With that card expended, and no new redistricting in the works, the name of the game seems to be defense, defense, and defense for the GOP in 2006. As the best defense is, a good offense, however, the only question remains when and where the Party of Lincoln goes on the attack.
posted by Thomas at 12:07 AM 0 comments

 
Party Crashers


I have terrible news for conservatives thinking that the nomination of Sam Alito Jr. is going to rip the Democratic Party in two: the GOP is about to get it ten times worse.

Part of the inherent problem with Congress is that much of the true wrangling between various members and the leadership is not covered well in the media. So while there’s plenty of reports on the State of the Union, and Kerry’s le filibuster… you pretty much have to read the national newspapers to make heads or tails of the race to replace Tom DeLay as House Majoirty Leader. The interesting thing from my perspective is that between the Roy Blunt, John Boehner, and John Shadegg the most compelling question has to be one of immigration policy.

Shadegg is from Arizona where President Bush’s calls for a guest worker program plays as well as the Social Security barnstorming at the AARP Convention. But his district isn’t near the border, comprised instead of mostly north Phoenix. Places where the presence of migrant workers in convenience stores, fast-food restaurants and the like are a daily reminder of the nation’s immigration policy.

And this is a reality that Republicans do not want to face: supposedly the Democrats are divided on national security. But in truth, those divisions are not ideological…they are about process. Republicans actually differ on the concrete role of immigration in America. To a certain extent this is true of Democrats and liberals too. But I would argue that very few liberals think any immigration is an anathema, or that the current exploitation of illegal aliens should continue.

The key thing is that even if Blunt wins and Shadegg loses, the immigration issue does not go away. It’s only going to get worse over time. But because immigration may play no role in how the 2006 election shakes out, I tend to think that when it does cost the Party elections it will be seen as a surprise.
posted by Thomas at 11:12 PM 0 comments