Unpaid Commentary

1.28.2006
 
Party Crashers


I have terrible news for conservatives thinking that the nomination of Sam Alito Jr. is going to rip the Democratic Party in two: the GOP is about to get it ten times worse.

Part of the inherent problem with Congress is that much of the true wrangling between various members and the leadership is not covered well in the media. So while there’s plenty of reports on the State of the Union, and Kerry’s le filibuster… you pretty much have to read the national newspapers to make heads or tails of the race to replace Tom DeLay as House Majoirty Leader. The interesting thing from my perspective is that between the Roy Blunt, John Boehner, and John Shadegg the most compelling question has to be one of immigration policy.

Shadegg is from Arizona where President Bush’s calls for a guest worker program plays as well as the Social Security barnstorming at the AARP Convention. But his district isn’t near the border, comprised instead of mostly north Phoenix. Places where the presence of migrant workers in convenience stores, fast-food restaurants and the like are a daily reminder of the nation’s immigration policy.

And this is a reality that Republicans do not want to face: supposedly the Democrats are divided on national security. But in truth, those divisions are not ideological…they are about process. Republicans actually differ on the concrete role of immigration in America. To a certain extent this is true of Democrats and liberals too. But I would argue that very few liberals think any immigration is an anathema, or that the current exploitation of illegal aliens should continue.

The key thing is that even if Blunt wins and Shadegg loses, the immigration issue does not go away. It’s only going to get worse over time. But because immigration may play no role in how the 2006 election shakes out, I tend to think that when it does cost the Party elections it will be seen as a surprise.