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Defense is the Name of the Game

One strategic reason Tom DeLay might have resigned this week is that he has reason to think the Supreme Court will reverse his mid-decade redistricting map that help cement the GOP’s majority in Congress. The logic behind it goes something like this: Texas had a Congressional delegation full of Democrats because of older gerrymandering before the rebirth of the Republicans in the South. DeLay and associates fashioned a new map that didn’t just make seats competitive… incumbent candidates found themselves running against each other. The net impact is that five white, male Democrats: Max Sandlin, Nick Lampson, Charlie Stenholm, Chris Bell and Martin Frost, found themselves out of a job.

But now, Lampson has run in DeLay’s old district because DeLay weakened it to help make the new districts easier for freshmen Republicans to win. Most of the other ousted Dems are not going to run.

But imagine for a moment the old map is brought back…the Republican incumbents are still incumbents now…and Texas 22nd…home to one Thomas DeLay…switches to a more Republican composition. Lampson is also ineligible, living in Galveston. That kills much of the moxie Lampson had not just running against an unpopular DeLay, but also his ability to go nationally to raise money for other Democrats not unlike Barack Obama in 2004.

Remember too that the Democrats need approximately sixteen seats to regain the House. The Republicans used the Texas redistricting not to gain districts, but offset falloff from their strong showing in 2002. With that card expended, and no new redistricting in the works, the name of the game seems to be defense, defense, and defense for the GOP in 2006. As the best defense is, a good offense, however, the only question remains when and where the Party of Lincoln goes on the attack.
posted by Thomas at 12:07 AM 0 comments