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Defense is the Name of the Game

One strategic reason Tom DeLay might have resigned this week is that he has reason to think the Supreme Court will reverse his mid-decade redistricting map that help cement the GOP’s majority in Congress. The logic behind it goes something like this: Texas had a Congressional delegation full of Democrats because of older gerrymandering before the rebirth of the Republicans in the South. DeLay and associates fashioned a new map that didn’t just make seats competitive… incumbent candidates found themselves running against each other. The net impact is that five white, male Democrats: Max Sandlin, Nick Lampson, Charlie Stenholm, Chris Bell and Martin Frost, found themselves out of a job.

But now, Lampson has run in DeLay’s old district because DeLay weakened it to help make the new districts easier for freshmen Republicans to win. Most of the other ousted Dems are not going to run.

But imagine for a moment the old map is brought back…the Republican incumbents are still incumbents now…and Texas 22nd…home to one Thomas DeLay…switches to a more Republican composition. Lampson is also ineligible, living in Galveston. That kills much of the moxie Lampson had not just running against an unpopular DeLay, but also his ability to go nationally to raise money for other Democrats not unlike Barack Obama in 2004.

Remember too that the Democrats need approximately sixteen seats to regain the House. The Republicans used the Texas redistricting not to gain districts, but offset falloff from their strong showing in 2002. With that card expended, and no new redistricting in the works, the name of the game seems to be defense, defense, and defense for the GOP in 2006. As the best defense is, a good offense, however, the only question remains when and where the Party of Lincoln goes on the attack.
posted by Thomas at 12:07 AM 0 comments

 
Party Crashers


I have terrible news for conservatives thinking that the nomination of Sam Alito Jr. is going to rip the Democratic Party in two: the GOP is about to get it ten times worse.

Part of the inherent problem with Congress is that much of the true wrangling between various members and the leadership is not covered well in the media. So while there’s plenty of reports on the State of the Union, and Kerry’s le filibuster… you pretty much have to read the national newspapers to make heads or tails of the race to replace Tom DeLay as House Majoirty Leader. The interesting thing from my perspective is that between the Roy Blunt, John Boehner, and John Shadegg the most compelling question has to be one of immigration policy.

Shadegg is from Arizona where President Bush’s calls for a guest worker program plays as well as the Social Security barnstorming at the AARP Convention. But his district isn’t near the border, comprised instead of mostly north Phoenix. Places where the presence of migrant workers in convenience stores, fast-food restaurants and the like are a daily reminder of the nation’s immigration policy.

And this is a reality that Republicans do not want to face: supposedly the Democrats are divided on national security. But in truth, those divisions are not ideological…they are about process. Republicans actually differ on the concrete role of immigration in America. To a certain extent this is true of Democrats and liberals too. But I would argue that very few liberals think any immigration is an anathema, or that the current exploitation of illegal aliens should continue.

The key thing is that even if Blunt wins and Shadegg loses, the immigration issue does not go away. It’s only going to get worse over time. But because immigration may play no role in how the 2006 election shakes out, I tend to think that when it does cost the Party elections it will be seen as a surprise.
posted by Thomas at 11:12 PM 0 comments

 
Skid Row Power Play?

Over the last month, stories and allegations of homeless individuals being "dumped" in downtown Los Angeles' eastern reaches continue to trickle out. First County Sherrifs were said to have dropped off transients swept off streets elsewhere. Then local hospitals admitted to the practice because of the availability of treatment centers for patients who were without shelter.

But as the story continues to grow legs, there is a degree of mystery just how a few muttering bums happened to convince the Los Angeles Times to print their complaints.

Something tells me they didn't have to. While it's potentially the case that the Times pounded the pavement and figured out this story all by itself...it reeks of a big leak into the newsroom.

That's significant because there are two likely sources of who would provide such a lead. The first is someone in City Hall, eager to stop the practice. The second would be a developer or other real estate player confounded by the inability to move east because of "all these bums around". It's not real clear who at this point, but Mayor Villaraigoisa's response on CNN that he blamed the federal government hints he did not have a planned, locally-significant answer lined up.

That leaves John Q. Developer. More specifically however, Dodger owner Frank McCourt. It has been known for some time that McCourt was unable to buy the team in full, and that the organization owns Dodger stadium outright. Selling it would help balance the books, and the local government would be just so eager to help him publicly finance a new edifice. Suspend your disbelief for a moment that California politicans are usually tight with public money.

McCourt knows that in San Diego, the local police were all too eager to push out the transient population that used to live on the site of Petco Park to help make it a success. This relevation might be the way he gets a crack-down on the practice and frees up enough downtown real estate to build his stadium.

Nevermind the fact that no one is actually advocating from the transients' position. The homeless are not usually a major economic or political force. Still, "trash" often precipates some of the headiest public policy clashes...so don't be be surprised if the real impact is a much bigger struggle by the City of Los Angeles to exert itself on the County and the other 88 incorporated cities within it.
posted by Thomas at 3:46 PM 0 comments

 
Nissan's Tennessee Titans

The Los Angeles Times reported recently that Nissan USA is thinking of jettisoning its California headquarters for one closer to its plant in Smyrna, Tennessee. This development is curious for a number of reasons. There's the obvious culture shock for visiting Japanese executives (after their connecting flight through Chicago or Dallas) of a place as unlike California as one can imagine: conservative, inland, and devoid of racial diversity.

But just like Los Angeles, Nashville's economy increasingly relies on a burgeoning tourist industry that began with country music and has blossomed into other media. Even Miami does not match the glamour of Tennesee's capital in the South. Now, the tourist and entertainment indstury is inherently service oriented. So why are big manufacturers eager to move there?

Don't count out potentially a pension or accounting scandal here. Cost savings would be significant if it completely relocated to Tennessee. But why else would there be such pressure to do so? And does this mean Honda and Toyota, also based in Los Angeles County, are soon to follow to the South?

One factor to consider: imported brands are decidedly less popular in Middle American than in California. The efficiency of smaller, Japanese cars is a lost cause throughout much of the nation. So Nissan may feel it is going to change that trend by learning about these "red state values".

Yet curiously enough, Nissan's premium truck model, the Titan isn't produced at the Smryna plant. The more demure Frontier is, as well as the Xterra, and Altima. If the company wants to make their move stick, they might take a hint from the NFL and move the Titans to Tennessee.
posted by Thomas at 12:53 AM 0 comments

 
The Minuteman Come Home?

What to make of a Washington Post story about "Minuteman" border patrols in the Green Mountain State?

Well, it is true that Vermont was the site of a Confederate raid south into the US in 1864...and the it is the first New England state to see this sort of activity. (After all, the Minute man caricuature was a description penned by Boston newspapers.)

But my own guess is that the "Minuteman" local chapters are tired of being accused of racism or targetting Latin American migrants in their hunts. And where else is a better place to break that mold but the progressive Eden of Vermont. The Post is actually doing them a huge favor by writing this story, though there's no telling if more patrols will pop up along the border with our northern neighbor.

It's also a slow time in Vermont as the "foilage season" is over already but the ski season has yet to begin. Though it does give a whole new meaning to Smuggler's Notch.
posted by Thomas at 1:15 AM 0 comments

 

Saving the Best for Last?

As hurricane season has been particularly active and destructive this year, it’s hard to imagine how things could get any worse. But alas, Wilma has already broken the seventy year old record for intensity in the Atlantic basin. Floridians previously breathing sighs of relief that their state had been spared a major hurricane landfall after surviving four of them in 2004 now find themselves boarding up and heading out.

It’s revealing to see that in Florida the real anguish over Wilma is that her arrival cuts into the start of the tourist season which is usually ramping up as temperatures drop in the rest of the country. After all, the state has seen numerous storms within the past decade and escaped from most with only moderate property damage. No one is talking much about Lake Okeechobee.

The likelihood that the dam surrounding the lake burst and floods all of South Florida is pretty small, but it could inundate much of the Everglades to the south which is used to grow sugarcane and vegetables. Not a big deal, unless you like that slice of tomato or lettuce on your hamburger.

But can it be that in a year of peerless natural disasters, the only victim of Wilma’s wrath could be Mickey Mouse? Or is the hurricane season saving its best for last?

posted by Thomas at 1:19 AM 0 comments

 

Best Places to Work: Rating the Federal Government


There is not a lot of fanfare for this list, but personally it’s not all that helpful to a person with a Master in Public Policy. Ranking the OMB first is not that surprising given the relatively small size of the agency and that it is within the Office of the President itself. The GAO gets good marks, but apparently, there’s no breakdown of its ranking. And the CBO, as an arm of Congress, was not even considered.

It’s too bad there are not more surveys done of local or state agencies. Word is that morale in California state agencies is pretty low, but that it’s better at the county or city level.

This is not making it any easier to decide where a person with a degree in policy ought to hang his hat. Although the OMB website is quick to point out that nearly 90% of their positions are career, not political. And hey, it would be cool to say “I work at the White House”. (The offices for the OMB are actually in the Eisenhower Executive Building which is part of the complex but not inside the White House itself.) But it ranks dead last in “family friendly and benefits”. If it hadn’t it would be head-and-shoulders ahead of other agencies in the rankings. Good thing I don’t need maternity leave.
posted by Thomas at 12:11 AM 0 comments