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Gulf War II: a Military Review

No matter what anyone says, the upcoming war in Iraq will not be a cakewalk. Instead, it will be dinner time television fare for American who watch their armed forces try to do what they are not good at: a manhunt. The Bush administration does not want ot admit it, but as powerful as the US military is, it failed to find either Osama bin Laden or Mullah Omar in Afghanistan. This time, instead of being a wilderness, the search is headed to the cities.

First Phase: US begins a concentrated boming campaing on Baghdad, hoping that Saddam Hussein will surrender. Instead, Hussein responds by hiding. The US, hoping to leave most of the state's infrastructure intact, send Special Forces into Baghdad and other cities. Kurds attempt to mobilize but only succceed halfway. Iraqi National Congress tries to proclaim itself in control, but in reality everyone will be uncertain just what is going on. Iraqi military instead retreats to a guerilla campaign.

Second Phase: Iraqi missles take aim at Israeli military and security targets. Iraq does not have the ability to wage war with Israel, but rather enable the Palestineans to wage another intifada. Iraq also attempts to smash oil refineries and other American targets in the Gulf, but specifically not attack Arabs or Arab targets. Damage to oil production causes European oil prices to spike. EU angrily rebukes the US and demands a quick finish to the conflict.

Third Phase: EU pulls out of a coalition and Israel retakes the West Bank. Support in the Arab world now almost completely eroded. US then begins a massive invasion of troops and Iraqi ground forces withdraw. American forces quickly take Baghdad. Law and order slowly deteriorate. US Congress demands that troops be withdrawn by the end of 2003. Iraqi National Congress asks US military to withdraw, US military refuses.

Fourth Phase: Kurdish troops declare autonomy from INC. INC attempts to take control of central Iraq. US forces hunker down and occupy the bottom third. US asks that the Kurds welcome US military protection at Bayji. Kurds decline. Congress reiterates demand.

Fifth Phase: American military forces carve out "enclaves" in Bayji and Basra for UN Peacekeepers as well as supporting the INC for Baghdad. Regional elections are scheduled for November of 2003. Bush adminstrations declares US peacekeepers may be in Iraq, "for the foreseeable future".

So will Hussein be found? Does it matter? The US will have a very murky situation indeed. The principal military objective will be secure Iraq's oilfields. After that however, it's completely unclear. The reason for this is that military exercises in Afghanistan appear less and less settled every day. Again, it's hard to know the exact sequence of events. However, without any real sort of sign as to what is to come, this is my interpretation of what will occur.
posted by Thomas at 7:22 PM 0 comments