Because the best things in life are free.

 
New England Showdown?

We know it’s really early, but word that Massachusetts senator John Kerry plans on forming an exploratory presidential committee indicates that the 2004 primary season will start hot, very hot for the Democrats. This is because of the candidates that appear to realistically on the ballot, two are from New England: Vermont governor John Dean and Kerry. Expect Tom Daschle, Dick Gephardt, and Joe Lieberman to surrender by Iowa, leaving most likely John Edwards, Al Sharpton, Al Gore with the two Northeast candidates to canvass the Granite State in January.
Gore and Edwards will be able to pepper the state’s limited media market with plenty of ads, but as Southerners, face the same sort bias New Hampshire voters had for Bill Clinton in 1992, Bob Dole in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000. Each of these candidates lost only to rebound for their party’s nomination and face the incumbent. Clinton and Bush were Southern governors while Dole remained a purely Washingtonian influence. Edwards, facing a tough reelection bid for Senate in 2004, may elect to wait until 2008 to try for the presidency, figuring that Bush is nearly unbeatable. Sharpton may yet get some significant support somewhere, but labor unions and blacks are not strong in New Hampshire and he is likely to be unpopular.
Nevertheless, Dean and Kerry will dig in early and in a bruising winter campaign keep the nation on edge. Currently, Kerry appears he will escape with the nomination. The reason for this is that Dean is keen to seek out the favor of the more rural and traditional voters that live in the north and west. In other words, the parts of the state that resemble Vermont. Kerry will use his popularity as Massachusetts senator in Greater Mass: hi-tech corridors and more populous areas south of Concord.
In 2002, these constituencies faced off in the Republican Senate primary. Incumbent Bob Smith fought John Sununu Jr. and lost. Sununu cautiously allied himself with Greater Massachusetts and found the numbers to be in his favor. If Kerry does the same, he will ride it to victory and gird for the next week’s contest.
The rest looks decidedly less clear. Democratic Party by-laws indicate that several states may schedule their primaries as soon as possible, namely February 3, 2002. If this is true, Gore will have the advantage over Kerry and Dean. If however, only one big state is up for grabs as is currently, Virginia, Kerry and Gore are likely to fight for it while Dean will concentrate on South Carolina. Dean’s attitudes toward gun control and other issues will resonate with Southern voters. Missouri too will be a hard-fought state as it remains the bellwether for the general election since 1960.

posted by Thomas at 5:29 PM 0 comments