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Another Gulf War Piece

It’s no secret that President Bush wants to find any excuse to send in the troops and oust Saddam Hussein. We here at “Unpaid” went so far as to explain just what is likely to happen when the troops start marching. So the question is, why are we going into Iraq in the first place? Is it really all about weapons of mass destruction, or oil, or what?
There is a possibility that Iraq has nuclear weapons, but the problem with this assertion is that Iraq isn’t about to use them. Iraq is likely to have to sough to develop them because of the Iran-Iraq war and then subsequent fears of an Israeli-Iraq conflict. In fact considering that Iraq is surrounded by nuclear powers like Russia, Israel, the US and the like, one would be hard pressed to think a cagey dictator like Saddam Hussein would want to use nukes for anything but deterrence.
So is it oil? It is true that if the US seizes Iraq that after about five or ten years production there would be enough to minimize reliance on regimes like Saudi Arabia. But the problem with this line of thinking is that if Saddam is left to his own devices he might try and seize Saudi Arabia again, or Kuwait and drive up the price of oil. Unfortunately, most of the foreign oil the US comes from Venezuela, not Saudi Arabia. Secondly, Hussein would not attempt to sequester the oil; he needs it to gain revenue. At one point the Economist pointed out that in fact, while Hussein would keep the pumps going, a radical regime like the Taleban would tear down the wells and plunge the world oil market into crisis.
But if this is what Bush and the Administration fear, why then exactly go into Iraq. The uncertainty and uncomfortable state of affairs in the Gulf exists because the price of oil is going down, and creating more supply from a place like Iraq is going to accelerate the decline of such regimes in places like the Kingdom. It is possible that the US is trying to secure these reserves for the future, but it rings hollow because of the infrastructure invested in Saudi Arabia. To drill in Iraq is to invite economic collapse. But if Bush is worried that these other regimes are tenuous, doing this will be a self-fullfilling prophecy. As the price of oil dives, so will the survival of the emirs along the Gulf and the potential for a radical government to rise.
So why then regime change? In a word, Israel. It appears that the US is trying to prevent a war between Iraq and Israel by eliminating the last major Arab military in the region. The reason? Israel is getting eager to seize more and more of the West Bank and fears that Iraq could be aid the Palestinean cause with weapons. After all, nations like Jordan and Egypt are prohibited by treaty from really getting involved. Iraq, however, has nothing to worry about. It’s already a regional paraiah and would stand to gain points by standing up to the Israelis for the rest of the Arab world. And unlike the Jordanians and Saudis, the Iraqis have a military that will discourage Israel for going to war with them. After all, if Iraq declares war on Israel, it’s over, but if Israel is the provocateur, Bush may decide winning the Jewish vote isn’t worth it.
Then again, if Iraq is removed, Israel becomes the most important military power in the Middle East with the exception of Turkey. It means the arc of American empire there is very strong. It also means that unlike the first Gulf War, a redux is likely the point of no return. Once Saddam is gone, it’s a sign that the Middle East shall soon be in ferment.

posted by Thomas at 12:40 AM 0 comments