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A Revolution for Riyadh?

As more and more blustering goes on about securing Iraq’s oilfields, a new problem arises in the face of conflict there. No one is much interested in suggesting what could be a strong possibility if the United States proceeds to invade Iraq. Most analyses concentrate on the quick surgical nature of American military prowess able to take Baghdad without much of a fight. It’s very possible that the US could move with enough expertise such that the only real concern would be rebuilding the county’s infrastructure.
Except it might not be. The US remains dependant on foreign oil, and with Hugo Chavez paralyzing his nation’s supply while war worries will send prices rising even if supplies are stable, the strike on Saddam could be an economic lump to swallow. Remember though, that as the US attempts to ramp up product of petroleum in Africa, Central Asia, and Iraq, it will become temporarily more reliant upon Saudi Arabia to bridge the gap from its current arrangement to the next one.
The reason that this is a dangerous proposition is that Saudi Arabia remains a country with a very shaky regime. At any time, the House of Saud could fall and if Wahabbite extremists expel Western firms from their oilfields, the world would face an energy crunch of untold proportions as well as an ensuing depression. Unfortunately, the decline of Saudi Arabia may be tied to the Iraqi conflict. Al Qaeda or other individuals may be waiting for the US to be occupied with fighting to launch a preordained coup. It’s also possible that average Saudis might murder the royal family in response to Hussein’s deposition. While security is strong at the derricks, civil unrest in Riyadh has to be taken very seriously.
If a large scale uprising occurred, it is hard to think that the Kingdom could stop such a thing without American assistance. Given the current zeitgeist, the cure could be worse than the affliction for the royal family. However, unless massive economic restructuring occurs within in the next five to ten year, Islamic fundamentalists probably will be able to co-opt the economic woes of the Kingdom and depose the Sauds regardless. If the majority of the US petroleum producing has moved on, this will be an afterthought for US foreign policy. However, there is a significant window of at least three years in which regime collapse in the Kingdom could punish the world economy in a way that events like the World Trade Center attack could not.

posted by Thomas at 1:14 AM 0 comments

 

Primary Colors on Branson

If you caught Frank Lunz on Hardball, this Tuesday you were subjected to a very interesting experiment. The gravel-voiced GOP pollster rounded up 15 New Hampshire voters and then had then watch clips of all the candidates. He then broke down responses into men and women in real time. The stunning revelation? John Kerry (D-MA) smoked Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and Howard Dean (D-VT) for the favor of the Granite State. But before you get all excited about the prospect of Kerry running away with the nomination consider the logic of an earlier post.
Kerry is going to do well in area of Greater Massachusetts largely because his profile is a long one on Boston-area television. Since those broadcasts resonate as far north as Concord, all this really tells us is that Kerry has the early lead because people know who he is among the candidates that they consider to be representative of their values. Now if you like Howard Dean, do you give up at this point? Probably not. Dean has a whole year to become well known.
What this does make more interesting though is the focus on the primaries the next week. John Edwards fell into the toilet with Lunz’s sample. Nevertheless he’s bound to be the frontrunner down in South Carolina on February 3. However, confirmed for that same date is none other than the Missouri primary. Dick Gephardt, assuming he wins in Iowa would be able to look forward to a lot of support. But with New Hampshire and South Carolina already seemingly discovered country, the Missouri primary could huge. It’s Gephardt’s home turf, but it could also be the best chance for Al Sharpton. Consider that Missouri is a state with a huge rural-urban divide. Many of the Democrats will be polling in places like St. Louis and Kansas City and many of them will be African-American. While it’s uncertain just how well Sharpton or Gephardt will resonate, Edwards has to like the pro-South sentiments in Missouri as well.
There’s no telling just where the politicians will go in the Show Me State. Will Trial Lawyer John go to Hannibal and pose as Tom Sawyer? Does Dick take more photos with Rams owner Georgia Frontiere? Will John Kerry come with Beecher’s Bibles? Will Al Sharpton evoke memories of the 1917 riots? Does Lieberman do Branson? Stay tuned.

posted by Thomas at 11:03 PM 0 comments

 
House of the Ricin Sun

The paranoia that accompanied words like “box-cutter” and “anthrax” has returned. It’s returned in the form of a contact poison called ricin, and instead of hiding the carry-on bags of first class passengers or business-sized envelopes, the focus has turned to the flats of the United Kingdom. The British government, used to dealing with dangerous cells from its tangles with the Irish Republican Army, has now launched a major offensive designed to arrest individuals who may be plotting an attack. Most terrifying of course has been that when the initial arrests were made in Manchester, England, only trace amounts were found, leading Scotland Yard to continue a crackdown. Making matters all the worse was that another forced entry in Manchester ended with a police officer being killed by a suspect resisting arrest. Law enforcement, having lost one of its own over the ricin ring has moved to London. The Finsbury Park Mosque was the subject of a massive raid early Monday morning.
The increased police pressure seems to indicate that an attack is coming, but where? Given ricin’s use as a contact poison, the leading fear is that a small amount would be placed on the London Underground. The impact would be much like the anthrax letters: the actual risk to a person would be minimal, but the fear of dying huge as nearly all Londoners rely on the subway. Then again, the letters targeted heads of state, not the common man. Could it be that the once world-famous post could be the harbinger of doom to come? Or could it all be a distraction towards another plot? Is the real attack going to take another form whilst the bobbies chase rumors of hidden labs in the neighbors’ attic?
Maybe the most delicious irony of all is that many people are suspicious of the raids as publicity stunts by Prime Minister Tony Blair to help convince the otherwise reluctant British that war in Iraq and the threat of terror is real and imminent. There’s no doubt that Al Qaeda needs another successful attack. However it seeks to do so to help raise funds which are starting to wane. The immolation of a Bali night club in October has alleviated this cash crunch, but not for long. After attacks in Africa, the Middle East, the US and Southeast Asia, Europe must be worried that so far bin Laden is nowhere to be found.
They should also keep in mind Al Qaeda case history. The group tends to stage attacks that it believes will kill in the hundreds. It guessed wrong in 2000 (barely denting the USS Cole), but was pleasantly surprised in 2001. Law enforcement hopes for a disappointment again.

posted by Thomas at 10:39 PM 0 comments

 
Why Fox News Has no Democratic Equivalent

A story that ruffled feathers all the way across the country among big time Democrats and liberals was that the left was tired of getting pounded in the media on cable TV news and talk radio that some individuals were hoping to duplicate the success of such individuals as Ben Shapiro and Rush Limbaugh with a Democratic News Channel. The answer that conservative pundits gave was that if you looked over all, most liberals tended to watch the local TV news and Network news for their information, forcing people looking for a conservative slant to either subscribe to the Wall Street Journal or turn on Larry Elder. The networks and other mass media were so unforgivably liberal that this was born out in the Gallup study.
This grand theory however, does not work. While it is true that many of the media network are owned by a few companies who seemingly all are commanded by Jews, and therefore must be liberal in this sort of antiquarian thinking, there is a much simpler reason for all of this. It’s called money.
Thinking about how much a new format of media cost the individual consumer. Fox News is on cable, and cable usually costs a person $40 a month for a subscription. Then consider how much the cheapest Internet connection cost is, and then realize that network TV costs a person that owns a TV set….absolutely nothing! It should be no surprise to anyone that the poorest people in society favor the most accessible means of information. It could be true that the networks are guilty of pandering to people on the lower rings of society, but that would make them no different than Fox News. The problem is that too many people get caught up in this idea that poor people are seemingly able to have the same access to the same media (or dare we say has time to watch shows and the like) and therefore assume suddenly that Rush is the only thing people are watching.
Instead, conservatives should be more worried that while talk shows continue to grow, they can’t seem to get rid of NPR.

posted by Thomas at 5:08 PM 0 comments

 
Bordering on Trouble

Just a week after five mystery men supposedly snuck across the Canadian-US border on a tip from an informant, the information turns out to be false. Coupled though with this, is news of a different kind, and on the opposite border. For those of you who haven’t heard of the Civilian Homeland Defense take heart: you will. This group, led by the editor of the Tombstone Tumbleweed, Chris Simcox, hopes to help prevent illegal immigrants ranging from Mexican day workers to Islamic terrorists from using Arizona as their waystation.
His method is to patrol the dusty, oft-neglected boundaries along the Mexico-US border with other people and his hope is that he won’t have to do it for long. Simcox hopes the National Guard will take up positions along the fence and thereby allow he and his fellow volunteers to stand down. But let us face the facts.
Cochise County, which occupies the southeastern reach of Arizona, is among the most white counties that straddle the border with Mexico. Only Pima and San Diego county could claim to be “whiter”. So even though only 40% of illegal aliens use Arizona as their choice to enter America, it makes sense, does it not? With all of Texas buffered by the Rio Grande, and a large Border Patrol presence in San Diego, does it not surprise anyone that the area where resistance to aliens would be greatest is none other than Cochise County? But now that it is clear why it happens there, just what is the average Joe to think.
Remember when Trent Lott told Bill O’Reilly he wanted troops on the border? Well we tend to think the Factor is not so eager to point out that statement now, but Simcox continues to bang the drum that others like Tom Tancredo of Colorado have. But while it is alleged that Karl Rove has banned Tancredo for his comments from visiting the White House, Simcox’s group is bound to cause lots of problems.
After all, according to the activist, CHD only calls the Border Patrol to apprehend illegals once they cross the border. Just how they would detain these individuals remains a mystery, but should there be injuries and deaths from what some would call vigilantes…the political pressure could be huge. Many poorer Americans are unhappy with the Bush administration’s two-faced attitude on immigration: homeland security is important, but only when not talking about Mexican illegals. While the Defense is not well funded and may not have much shelf life, should it persist in its activities…this might be a dangerous issue, especially with Arizona’s primary among the first in 2004.

posted by Thomas at 12:11 AM 0 comments

 
Predictions Anyone?

The new year allows us to make more than one prediction about the future, and all the exciting (bad) things that are on the way. Cynicism aside, the American public thinks they have it really hard these days. Obviously, no one seemingly remembers the 1970s, but keep in mind the majority of people living in this country had yet to be born or arrive on the golden shores.

• Joe Lieberman ultimately will refrain from running for president. Caught off guard by Al Gore’s remarks, the Democratic pool is now almost full. In addition if Lieberman runs, every state in New England beside Maine and Rhode Island would have a man in the running. And this does not even begin to consider New York, which so far has Al Sharpton and even Hillary Clinton as a possible candidate.

• Evidence of Osama bin Laden’s tutor, Ayman Al-Zawhiri, will surface in Egypt. Unlike Osama Bin Laden, Al-Zawhiri likely is not interested in eating bugs after the Taliban collapsed. He likely returned to Egypt figuring that Cairo is a much more comfortable place to hide. After all, Colin Powell is not likely to attack one of the US’ staunchest allies in the Arab world simply to capture him. Should things get dicey, the borders are very porous for Zawhiri to hide out in Sudan or Libya or the endless expanses of the Sahara Desert.

• Traces of Osama bin Laden will be found in Indonesia that will place him in Indonesia shortly before the attack on the Bali discotheque. It will remain uncertain where he is now.

• The Los Angeles Lakers will not repeat as NBA Champions. During the course of the season, star Kobe Bryant will be traded after his feud with coach Phil Jackson becomes public, and Jackson threatens to leave if Bryant does not.

• Ariel Sharon will win reelection for Prime Minister in Israel. The Middle East will lurch into another turbulent year with continued US military presence there.

• Chief Justice William Rehnquist will step down. George Bush will attempt to please Democrats by suggesting White House Counsel Alberto Gonzalez. Major resistance will come not from the Democrats alone but from Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist who will seek to torpedo the nomination fearing that the GOP will not get a hard-line anti-abortion justice.

• New York City will be awarded the 2012 Summer Olympics while South Africa will once again submit a bid for the 2010 World Cup. However, those wishing to keep the Cup closer to Europe will suggest either Morocco or Egypt as a rival African bid.

• Pope John Paul II will die and the election of a new pope will be a protracted affair. The developing world in particular the Philippines will seek out a candidate from outside the “First World”.

•While Microsoft Xbox will sales will continue to rise in 2003, the plateau is about to be reached still putting the console behind the Sony Play Station 2. Microsoft will try for a universal legal settlement with the remaining states but not until after this year.

• The US Supreme Court will declare the actions of the University of Michigan Law School constitutional in regard to racial considerations for admission but not preferences or quotas.

posted by Thomas at 12:36 AM 0 comments

 
The Way of the Gun

'With 2003 barely hours old, word comes that US troops and Pakistan troops have been involved in an altercation along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The official line is that members of the Pakistani Border Patrol approached and shot in the head a member of the US forces accompanying them. A number of individuals, including the shooter fled into an abandoned madrassa only to have the field commander for the US call out the birds and bomb the structure. However, it is unclear just where these events took place. The US military insists that the Border Guard were in Afghanistan and told to return to Pakistan but instead shot the individual and then cowered in the madrassa on the Afghan side of the line. The poor fellow injured apparently was escorting the Border Guard in carrying out a mission of destroying weaponry that had been recovered. When the attacker approached the US solider, he was told to return to the Pakistan side of the line.
The shooter consulted with other Pakistanis before carrying forward.
There remain few if any good explanations as to why this attack would occur. Had this occurred in Afghanistan, the standard response would be that feuding warlords decided to turn the tables on American forces. However with Pakistani forces allied with the US, there is some question as to how far this ambush resonates up the chain of command. It could be that local Taliban sympathizers hoped to kill the troops by posing as the Border Guard. But it could also be that the local commanders are in not interesting in having the Americans poke their head into Waziristan. It could also be that there was a general communication problem between Arabic and English, and that after accidentially firing, the Pakistanis retreated to a location that they believed to be in Pakistan, but on American maps was across the border.
Make no mistake, the murky details are exactly what we didn’t want to hear. Afghanistan is turning into a bottomless pit, and with momentum building toward a war in Iraq it’s not clear if the situation on the first front is about to deteriorate. A new year yes, but old fears persist.

posted by Thomas at 5:49 PM 0 comments