Because the best things in life are free.

 

Primary Colors on Branson

If you caught Frank Lunz on Hardball, this Tuesday you were subjected to a very interesting experiment. The gravel-voiced GOP pollster rounded up 15 New Hampshire voters and then had then watch clips of all the candidates. He then broke down responses into men and women in real time. The stunning revelation? John Kerry (D-MA) smoked Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and Howard Dean (D-VT) for the favor of the Granite State. But before you get all excited about the prospect of Kerry running away with the nomination consider the logic of an earlier post.
Kerry is going to do well in area of Greater Massachusetts largely because his profile is a long one on Boston-area television. Since those broadcasts resonate as far north as Concord, all this really tells us is that Kerry has the early lead because people know who he is among the candidates that they consider to be representative of their values. Now if you like Howard Dean, do you give up at this point? Probably not. Dean has a whole year to become well known.
What this does make more interesting though is the focus on the primaries the next week. John Edwards fell into the toilet with Lunz’s sample. Nevertheless he’s bound to be the frontrunner down in South Carolina on February 3. However, confirmed for that same date is none other than the Missouri primary. Dick Gephardt, assuming he wins in Iowa would be able to look forward to a lot of support. But with New Hampshire and South Carolina already seemingly discovered country, the Missouri primary could huge. It’s Gephardt’s home turf, but it could also be the best chance for Al Sharpton. Consider that Missouri is a state with a huge rural-urban divide. Many of the Democrats will be polling in places like St. Louis and Kansas City and many of them will be African-American. While it’s uncertain just how well Sharpton or Gephardt will resonate, Edwards has to like the pro-South sentiments in Missouri as well.
There’s no telling just where the politicians will go in the Show Me State. Will Trial Lawyer John go to Hannibal and pose as Tom Sawyer? Does Dick take more photos with Rams owner Georgia Frontiere? Will John Kerry come with Beecher’s Bibles? Will Al Sharpton evoke memories of the 1917 riots? Does Lieberman do Branson? Stay tuned.

posted by Thomas at 11:03 PM 0 comments