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The Last Hajj

It appears that “Unpaid” has to apologize. You see, it seemed for the longest time that military maneuvers in Iraq had much more to do with Israeli expansionism under the Sharon regime than with “weapons of mass destruction”. But alas, this turns out to be at least partially not the case. A shocking NY Times article on Friday reveals that Saudi Arabia is very eager to have the US Army leave…once Iraq is no longer the home of Saddam Hussein. Sound confusing?
The House of Saud wants to have its cake and eat it too. The Saudi royal family is eager to have the US vacate its positions in the Kingdom, but it does not want them to leave until Saudi hegemony in the Arab world is assured. Iraq is the only nation (Iran too for that matter) that could challenge the royals for their righteous place in the Gulf. In a sense, Israeli hawks are likely to enjoy the idea of Iraq being eliminated as well, but the current system of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Iran being pitted against each other is attractive. With Iraq mollified, Iran could focus more on Hezbollah while the Saudis too could focus more on internal measures.
However, there is reason to think that an Iraqi invasion is exactly what the nefarious Al-Qaeda types want. As stated before, Saudi oil will become crucial during the period of reorganization after the invasion is successful. But furthermore, the use and extension of troops into the Fertile Crescent would stretch US forces to the limit. Bin Laden might simply order a coup in the Kingdom once American troops are busy fighting house to house in Baghdad. This would force Central Command to divert an attack south and into Saudi Arabia. Of course, this is exactly what bin Laden would dream of doing. Defend Islam’s holy ground from crusaders who would attempt to wipe him out. He would assume that act of Gentile troops marching into Mecca would incite the Arab world to expel the West once and for all. Militarily of course, the US would still likely complete the job and destroy Islamism once and for all.
But before one gets too excited about this option, remember that the world’s energy rubric is awfully dependant on these countries that would likely protest. Even though the US would win the battle, it could find itself in a permanent energy crisis with more moderate Arab countries refusing to pump oil out of the ground. Hypothetically of course, the current regimes in nations like Kuwait or Qatar would be forced to continue selling oil on the world market. Nevertheless, these regimes, if the Americans invade Saudi Arabia, might be overthrown and with most of the Arab’s world heaving masses not enjoying the benefit of petrodollars….
Also intriguing is that Al Qaeda continues to make chatter to believe that the target of their activities is somewhere in the United States. Yet it would appear that the next wave of attack is supposed to begin with “assassinations” which considering how cephalized succession lines are in the US seems a little overwrought. However, this could also apply to the royal family in Saudi Arabia and could be exactly how bin Laden seeks to lie with the truth. With the FBI and CIA hunting shadows, it would allow the murder of the princes to occur and set the stage for Al Qaeda’s endgame, and the last Hajj.

posted by Thomas at 2:57 AM 0 comments