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Clark's Notch?

Most people anticipated Wesley Clark would win the first town in New Hampshire: he was the only candidate to visit there. But beyond that most people aren't certain. John Kerry looked prohibitively in control after Iowa, and now it appears Howard Dean is going to push him for every single vote. Edwards is basically pulling out and heading below the Mason Dixon line while Joe Lieberman is wondering if he can steal the Palmetto state away from Al Sharpton and Edwards. Bizarrely, Dean seemingly has no state lined up as his next, but Clark will head to Oklahoma...across the road from his native Arkansas.

But maybe the best news is that the nasty winter storm predicted to hit New Hampshire tomorrow is on hold. After all, no one knows where the candidates will be, for it's an unpredictable day ahead. But the weather could surprise, the results could surprise... and if you know anything about the Republican establishment, they hate that. The more it remains inconclusive who the front runner is, the more they have to attack all the candidates. No more Club for Growth ads at Dean. Now there's a nasty piece in the "New Republic" smashing Kerry. And dare we forget: John Edwards was interviewed by Bill O'Reilly. Perhaps the reality is though that some are hoping Edwards rises up like Clinton did after Paul Tsongas won in New Hampshire in 1992. Bush Sr. thought victory was assured against good ol Bill but he was mistaken.

We would be happy to link to the "New Republic" article about John Kerry...but they want you to subscribe and leave us out in the cold. ABC's "The Note" provided a little hint of what's to come. Needless to say if Kerry wins tomorrow...we will break it all down for you. If he doesn't and Howard Dean comes back to the fore (or anyone else) watch out for another attack from another part of the Republican establishment. Well okay, so Al Sharpton may find himself with little to worry about since no Black Republican group can attack him...after all... can you think of an African American who votes GOP consistently other than Condi, Colin, and ex-Oklahoma QB, ex-Congressman, and current Clear Channel shill Julius Caesar Watts?

If we find one, we will let ya know. Sleep tight.

posted by Thomas at 10:52 PM 0 comments

 
The Music Man Part Two

If you are unfamiliar with Meredith Wilson's play, a moment of review. A shyster, Harold Hill, rolls into River City selling band equippment to the local high school. Never mind that he gets into an unexpected romance and ends up never leaving Iowa. While the play premiered in the 1950s, it was set in 1912. Strange then, that the most famous artistic work about Iowa was against the background of one of the most important elections in US history. Wilson won Iowa that year, but as you may know, there were no large scale caucuses and instead only the Democratic Convention in Baltimore.

Of course, everyone is still trying to figure out just what happened. It boils down to this. Gephardt and Dean slipped out of place going negative at the wrong time. Not that the week before the caucus was a bad time, but rather don't go negative when you leave the state and rest your popularity in the hands of the television producers. Add to that a strange deal first reported by Terry Neal of the Washington Post that apparently Kucinich wanted to send his caucus goers to Edwards assuming he couldn't win in any districts. So as a result, many of the Gephardt people probably defected to Kerry and some of Dean's more populist adherent's probably joined Kerry or Edwards. But let's face another reality, the line up doesn't matter. Each of the top three candidates got delegates and as a result, each walks away from Iowa in good shape. Image-wise each may have to do some retooling, but even those who though Kerry's victory hurt Dean should realize Dean wanted a good showing by Kerry and Edwards. He wanted them becuase he wanted to split the "pro-war" vote. In New Hampshire this will be much easier to do, since it's a primary, not a caucus. Kerry remains dangerous however because if he raises enough money he will be able to compete with Dean on future dates when TV advertising will be crucial.

Of course, now look at the irony of those Club for Growth ads. They didn't knock out Dean from the top three. His core followers stuck with him and didn't trade. The make him look like a frontrunner and the face of the Democratic ticket except...if they weakened him...it now means that until New York on March 9, the campaign could go back and forth. It's also possible that there could be a good race even after that, but in order for that to happen, the candidates will have to have excellent local organizations and not just TV ads as a prelude to the general election. As for Dean: he can only lament that for the first time in his life he got his foot caught in the door.
posted by Thomas at 3:14 PM 0 comments

 
The Music Man Part One

If you thought John Kerry was going to sail through Iowa, you are a bad liar. The caucuses had an ending as much of a surprise as Meredith Wilson's famous play about life in Iowa. Sure, they all gave the state a try, so to speak but the only real loser was Dick Gephardt. Kerry, Edwards, and Dean are all ready to take on Clark and Lieberman in New Hampshire. But if you are still wondering what happened under the night sky of River City, USA look tomorrow for the full post.
posted by Thomas at 10:26 PM 0 comments

 
Cavuto Silences Bush Critics

Not every person affiliated with Fox News is a Republican. That's not the case with "Your World" anchor Neil Cavuto. Not only did he contribute the maximum allowed $2000 for George W. Bush in 2003, he also showed his colors last Friday. While doing a segment on Starbucks's entry to France, Cavuto believed he would have a panel with a person for and against the Seattle coffee house moving into Paris. When he addressed the caller, an American named "Andrew" living in France, the caller proceeded to ask Neil "why Bush is holding up the 9-11 Commission". A stunned Cavuto attempted to act as if he was not caught off guard and simply said, "that's not what we are talking about" and then had his staff hang up on "Andrew" and continue the coversation with the other guest. After all, why let a heckler get to you like that, right?

Turns out, Matt Drudge informs us that Bush and Speaker of the House Denny Hastert are ready to close the 9-11 Commission and want pressure to end it. Obviously Neil Cavuto isn't going t shed light on why exactly Bush wants the Commission turned out, but perhaps he feels the admission of Paul O'Neill might embolden them to investigate more. After all even media whores get caught flat footed once in a while.
posted by Thomas at 5:21 PM 0 comments

 
Tune In Tomorrow

Neither the Brown and Black Forum nor the O'Neill piece on "60 Minutes" has seemingly shaken the political landscape as much as we thought. We then again...when the biggest story is Al Sharpton pointing out Howard Dean never hired a black man on his cabinet. While this would be shocking and outrageous, we remind you that Vermont is still 97% white and that's hard to figure how he could avoid being called a tokenizer if he just had one African-American employee....Nevertheless...the dirt has been hurled and who knows what's going to happen.

But so that left the evening to be headlined not by Donovan McNabb's miracle pass but instead Paul O'Neill. A disaffected fiscal conservative, O'Neill has finally reaffirmed the fears of others. There is no link between Iraq and Al Qaeda and it turns out that Dick Cheney and the others really don't care about "Social Security and fundamental tax reform". So while the CBS went and served the red-meat as early as Friday morning, the true impact won't be known until tomorrow when the country goes back to work. The major events are over in Iowa, meaning now it's just time to do the standard campaigning. And of all people, who got the biggest endorsement today, courtesy of the Des Moines Register: John Edwards. It might seem like a stretch but actually remember aside from Gephardt, this campaign is dominated by men who were either going to challenge Gore outright in 2000 or run with him. Eventually the race will come down to three men: Dean, Clark, and Edwards.
posted by Thomas at 10:54 PM 0 comments

 
The Perfect Storm?

At least that is what Howard Dean calls his mobilization effort in Iowa. Sure, he's getting decked left and right this week from other Democratic challengers. But the President is having fun himself. First, he decided to "modernize" immigration policy and then he made a bold call for a mission to Mars. Nevermind the fact that Bush already is going to have "plenty of "splainin' " to do when former Treasury Secretary and Alcoa boss Paul O'Neill sits down with 60 Minutes tommorrow night. We can imagine this is perhpas an attempt to sell more copies of his book on Amazon.com. But the fact is when one of your own accuses you and says that the other team is right...well it's never good.

But because of all the attention on Iowa, the Republicans have been out there going after everyone from the sushi-eaters to the Volvo-drivers. But before the GOP gets ready to celebrate the nomination of Howard Dean just yet...good ol' "Shrub" might have a problem on his hands. I don't mean O'Neill's tangy memoir either.

Bush's immigration strategy isn't working in the states he wants to make headway in, such as California, Arizona, New Mexico, and even Texas. And this alone isn't really where things get bad. Instead, Bush opened his mouth and said something incredibly unartful. He believes there should be a "guest worker program" for jobs Americans are "not willing" to do. This statement is complete and utter POLITICAL SUICIDE. Not more than ten minutes later Bush had to admit that even with holiday hiring patterns, unemployment barely budged. Think about it logically: Bush argues that it's time to let in more people so that labor markets starved for employees can find them. And sure, when the times get tough suburbanites don't run to the fields to pick lettuce.

But remember, many people are losing their jobs to outsourcing and tech workers especially, see the labor market depressed by the influx of temporary workers on such things as the HB-1 visa. So with unemployment not going down, jobs exported by the day, medical and other benefits shrinking, Bush is then going to say we need more workers? Sure from his perspective it's a magnficient idea to destroy unions and revolutionize the world labor markets. But he forgets the cardinal rule of American politics: don't cater to those who can't vote. Then again, this could prove to be the piece d' la resistance for Karl Rove and the apex of conservatism dominance in America....or the perfect storm.
posted by Thomas at 12:50 AM 0 comments

 
Is Steven Moore's grand plan working? Friday, January 9th saw the most revered Democrat in all of Iowa, Sen. Tom Harkin put on the Dean sticker at the candidate's Iowa headquarters, southwest of central Des Moines. Dean wasn't even around; he was campaigning much closer to home. In some ways, Harkin might have been trying to gain positive news for his choice after the negative coverage that Mr. FrontRunner has received all week. Of course this maneuver infuriates Rep. Richard Gephardt, but it's hard to say if Dean will devote more time this week in the Hawkeye State or where they Live Free or Die. If the weather is any indication, it's warmer this weekend in Iowa than New Hampshire, but apparently it will be far below freezing after a new snow storm dumps more of the white stuff across the place in anticipation of the big day.

It appears the last big television event before next Monday will be the "Black/Brown Forum" on MSNBC. Wesley Clark won't be there, but Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley Braun will. Ironically Iowa might not be the "whitest" state out there, but Non-Latino Caucasians were 92% of the state's population as late as 2000. Which state had the highest number, you might ask in 2000...why it was Vermont.

So now that you know that little tidbit (that Iowa and Vermont are pretty similar in many ways) it has come to my attention that many people I know can't seem to figure out the strange and bizzare "code" of the anti-Dean Club for Growth ad in Iowa. Bill Maher, appearing on "Hardball with Chris Matthews" sputtered that he felt "latte-sipping referred to "gays" and that "New York Times-reading" meant Jews. When Matthews asked were he could get a dictionary...Maher said, "I'm sure it's on sale at Bob Jones University".

But we know, we know, your life is short and you want to know what all the fuss is about.

Tax Hiking: Most people will tell you this has all to do about that Democrats are the party that likes to tax the big corporations and raise taxes on everyone. They say this because ever since Frankline Delano Roosevelt, the Dems have been about bigger and bigger social programs. The size of the government always increases because...surprise our population rises. Don't forget thout that regulation nut Teddy Roosevelt was a Republican and that the South during the 1830s opposed the idea of a large goods tariff because it hurt the cotton industry and benefited those who lived in Philadelphia, Boston, and New York City.

Government-expanding: They could have said "nigger-loving" but then someone would really get angry. After all, FDR secretly gave the Democrats a huge boost by hiring lots of blacks to do civil service in his adminstration who then became Democrats for the rest of their lives. Many fiscal conservatives will point to this as the turning point to when the size of government actually became a political issue. Naturally of course the Republicans now figure the smaller the federal government is, the less they will have this type of support in the future.

Latte Drinking: Maybe there are no Coffee Bean's yet in Iowa, but there are definitely a few Starbucks. Bill Maher as you know claims this is a slight at gays, who must just control all of Vermont given Dean's popularity. This isn't true, but hey maybe gays and lesbians are at least happy that they are now a political force to be reckoned with.

Sushi Eating: Remember when Terry Bradshaw calls it bait in the famous 10-10-220 ads? This one is sneaky, but it's aimed at vegetarians/anti GM food/ animal rights people. You might think, aren't they just making fun of that fact that sushi is hugely popular in liberal states? Well sure there's that, but it's also the idea that Iowa produces corn, which in turn is used for feed in beef. Sushi eaters are seen as being anti-red meat. The interest groups that represent such things desire to turn America off of the taste of cow forever. Moo.

Volvo-Driving: If you ever read the work of UCLA political scientist James Q. Wilson, you would know of a particularly strange study done in the 1980s regarding the popularity of foreign cars. What the study found was that liberals believed and bought foreign cars if they wanted a sign of wealth, but conservatives/Republicans favored American-made cars. This hits the Rust Belt harder than Iowa, but foreign models are far less popular in the Midwest than California. The "are you kidding?" part of the ad is that Volvo isn't just a European car, it's a car that emphasizes safety (the first car to have side impact airbags) and is from Scandanavia...socialist paradise under the Northern Star. See how this works? Not only does it reflect a general truth, but goes towards the more outrageous stereotypes out there. Unless somehow owning a BMW makes you a Nazi sympathizer (ask any Jew who had to work there during WWII)


New York Times Reading: As if all American Jews consider New York City their second home. This sort of slap is pretty well-nuanced, much like the previous one. But it's not a token hit at people of Jewish descent. Rather in the 1940s and 50s the New Yorker became the cultural Bible not just of the City but of the entire liberal, educated urban etc. etc. population. While Jews were obviously integrated into higher education at this time, the idea that New York became sort of a nexus for the Fitzgeraldian literati. Ironically, with the New Yorker no longer the voice of the rich left in America the New York Times rankles many for its supposedly more progressive coverage of the news. Capitalizing on this and the fact that many industries based in New York City are dominated by Jews is proably why Maher said this. (Not to mention the fact that he himself is a part of the Tribe.)

Body Piercing: Non-Christians. Sure lots of women get ritualistic piercing in their ears and they aren't considered devil-worshipers. But the confluence of nose-piercing as well as mysticism drawn from both India and Native Americans don't sit well with the Christian backbone of America. Add to that the notion that every tattooed young man out there must be a Satan-worshipper or some other form of deviant and you get the picture. This goes as far back as Nixon's infamous comment about he never cared what a man's religion was so long as he had one.

Hollywood-loving: This is at once a slap at the Clintons as much as it is the rise of pornography and the supposed explosion of "entertainment news" and moral erosion. Now remember the orthodox of mullahs always pointing out our "decadent" culture seen in our films and you sort of wonder how the Club can stand side to side with the Saudi religious police but...

freak show Yes if you didn't know it already Republican consider the Democratic party a bunch of freaks. After all, isn't this about "tolerance" versus "tradition"? Isn't it because the Democrats are the team with all the "losers" the kids who get picked last and the Republicans are those who are the "winners".. I mean isn't that why the current divide seems to favor the bullying of the "alpha dog Republicans". Could it be pubery is just around the corner in America?

So there ya have it. Now you too can understand the intricacies of American politics like a true Beltway insider. Or at least Steve Moore's brain.

posted by Thomas at 1:06 AM 0 comments

 
Surprise, the Club for Growth just fired the first shot in Campaign 2004. The ad can be viewed at clubforgrowth.org Though ostensibly just the views of simple, Bush Country folk about Howard Dean, Stephen Moore's group's commercial reveals much about Republican strategy in 2004. Iowa barely went for Gore in 2000, and there's hope that if Dean wins the nomination, while demographically Iowa hasn't gain any electoral votes, he could appear to be unpalatable for "social conservatives" in Iowa. Amazingly, the Club decided to use a strategy pioneered by ousted California governor Gray Davis. Attack the opponent you fear most in the primaries while you run unopposed, and let the easier target win the nomination. There's just one problem:

California is a state that relies heavily on television advertising. It is the preferred method to get out your message among it's thirty million people. Iowa has a total of three million residents. Des Moines, the target television market of the ad, has around 200,000. The signals might at best reach half the state's population. Secondly, most of the cities in Iowa went Democrat and most of the rural areas were Bush Country, with the exception being Sioux City and Council Bluffs. As a general rule, the state becomes more conservative the farther west you travel from the Mississippi River. Des Moines stands as the outpost of the Democrats surrounded by "red" counties in all directions but north.

But what about this ad? It portrays an elderly couple standing outside a barbershop. It accuses Dean of being a member of the sushi-eating, New York Times reading, and dare we say, Volvo-driving left. It hints at gay marraige, but doesn't come out and make that attack just yet. It hints at gay marriage because elderly Americans oppose it, while younger generations approve. It is true that American cars are more popular in the heartland of America than on the coast. The sushi is probably not as fresh in Iowa than California. And who knows who reads the Old Grey Lady outside of the Tri-State. But Iowa's economy is a interesting mix that defies the typical Republican strategy for the Midwest.

Iowa is the capital of corn. It produces more corn than Illinois, which is far more populous. And with its reliance on corn comes the desire to market corn by-products such as corn syrup and ethanol. Consider that ethanol disagreements killed the 2003 version of the energy bill, led by Iowa Senator Charles Grasserly ( a hog farmer by trade). The problem with this is Grasserly is a Republican and if he can't deliver on a revised '04 energy bill with generous ethanol allowances Dean might gain valuable traction on Bush, perceived as being biased toward oil-production. Secondly, the state is more strongly anti-war than others, and Dean would play in Iowa better than in states with a larger military presence. But don't forget, Howard Dean still has to win the Iowa caucus first, and that's not a certainty, no matter what Steve Moore thinks.

Still, it's funny to hear every overused stereotype about liberals hurled by who obviously are two actors. It's just too bad that Moore believes somehow attacking Dean won't somehow mean he and Bush face off in a contest which the Club considers favorable to Bush. Or is that what he's doing in the first place?
posted by Thomas at 12:30 AM 0 comments