Because the best things in life are free.

 
Surprise, the Club for Growth just fired the first shot in Campaign 2004. The ad can be viewed at clubforgrowth.org Though ostensibly just the views of simple, Bush Country folk about Howard Dean, Stephen Moore's group's commercial reveals much about Republican strategy in 2004. Iowa barely went for Gore in 2000, and there's hope that if Dean wins the nomination, while demographically Iowa hasn't gain any electoral votes, he could appear to be unpalatable for "social conservatives" in Iowa. Amazingly, the Club decided to use a strategy pioneered by ousted California governor Gray Davis. Attack the opponent you fear most in the primaries while you run unopposed, and let the easier target win the nomination. There's just one problem:

California is a state that relies heavily on television advertising. It is the preferred method to get out your message among it's thirty million people. Iowa has a total of three million residents. Des Moines, the target television market of the ad, has around 200,000. The signals might at best reach half the state's population. Secondly, most of the cities in Iowa went Democrat and most of the rural areas were Bush Country, with the exception being Sioux City and Council Bluffs. As a general rule, the state becomes more conservative the farther west you travel from the Mississippi River. Des Moines stands as the outpost of the Democrats surrounded by "red" counties in all directions but north.

But what about this ad? It portrays an elderly couple standing outside a barbershop. It accuses Dean of being a member of the sushi-eating, New York Times reading, and dare we say, Volvo-driving left. It hints at gay marraige, but doesn't come out and make that attack just yet. It hints at gay marriage because elderly Americans oppose it, while younger generations approve. It is true that American cars are more popular in the heartland of America than on the coast. The sushi is probably not as fresh in Iowa than California. And who knows who reads the Old Grey Lady outside of the Tri-State. But Iowa's economy is a interesting mix that defies the typical Republican strategy for the Midwest.

Iowa is the capital of corn. It produces more corn than Illinois, which is far more populous. And with its reliance on corn comes the desire to market corn by-products such as corn syrup and ethanol. Consider that ethanol disagreements killed the 2003 version of the energy bill, led by Iowa Senator Charles Grasserly ( a hog farmer by trade). The problem with this is Grasserly is a Republican and if he can't deliver on a revised '04 energy bill with generous ethanol allowances Dean might gain valuable traction on Bush, perceived as being biased toward oil-production. Secondly, the state is more strongly anti-war than others, and Dean would play in Iowa better than in states with a larger military presence. But don't forget, Howard Dean still has to win the Iowa caucus first, and that's not a certainty, no matter what Steve Moore thinks.

Still, it's funny to hear every overused stereotype about liberals hurled by who obviously are two actors. It's just too bad that Moore believes somehow attacking Dean won't somehow mean he and Bush face off in a contest which the Club considers favorable to Bush. Or is that what he's doing in the first place?
posted by Thomas at 12:30 AM 0 comments