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Where's my Carpetbag?

How electrified is the Illinois Republican Party? Why don't you ask Alan Keyes, who will challenge rising star Barrack Obama for the state's open Senate seat in November. The GOP originally thought that the Southern Democrats retiring this year (John Edwards, Zell Miller, Fritz Hollings, John Breaux, and Bob Graham) would ensure that there would be no chance of the Democrats retaking the Senate. Nevertheless, John Edwards' seat in North Carolina is no longer looking so available. Breaux's Louisiana seat is a toss-up, along with Graham's in Florida. But with the GOP already up a seat 50-49-1, the only thing that could cause sweat on the brow would be several races all turning the other way outside of the South.

At first, it was just the retirement of Illinois Senator Pete Fitzgerald, which on it's own didn't seem to matter all that much. But that was followed by the retirement of Majority Whip Don Nickles in Oklahoma. And then there's Alaska, where Governor Frank Murkowksi appointed his daughter when he went left the Senate for the Juneau.

Like it or not, the GOP has to contend with Obama in Illinois, and Mike Ditka wasn't up for the challenge. But Keyes knows why he is doing this. He ran twice in his home state of Maryland and lost both times. He ran for President and lost twice in the primaries. Even so, Keyes could still win the Land of Lincoln.

Keyes is articulate and Harvard-educated, just as Obama is. However, despite Chicago and the rest of Illinois having a large Catholic population, the former ambassador won't win on gay marriage or his usually tough stance on abortion. Instead, he's going to focus on trade. Manufacturing job loses to China have caused tremendous unhappiness in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, where the President desperately wants to hold on. But while Illinois's economy is diversifying, unions remain a force to be reckoned with. If Keyes comes out hard against "job loss" and "ending the WTO" he may not sway any of the traditional, rank and file union voters. But Obama is vulnerable here...Keyes is an ardent critic of China, Keyes is black, and Keyes is a Catholic. And the Democrat core constituency in Illinois are China-wary unions, blacks, and Catholics.

And then there's Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert who hails from Illinois. His recent book leaked plans under wraps for the next Congress which would have the GOP majority abolish the income tax and replace it with a national sales income tax. With Hastert's re-election pretty secure, he has the ability to open doors for Keyes among his backers. The biggest being Morgan Stanley, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange second. If the former ambassador sounds like he's making sense to them...Obama will have to cancel the coronation.

Friday: The Politics of Stem Cells

posted by Thomas at 2:04 PM 0 comments