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Does Arnold Consider Bush a Lost Cause?

It is a story which is being underplayed, but probably tells us a lot about 2004 election. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California, was supposed to appear in Ohio earlier this week with President George W. Bush. Ohio is a state in dire economic straits, and one that no Republican has been able to forgo when winning the presidency. Schwarzenegger has reneged a couple times, and now has said he will only appear once in Ohio, this weekend. While the official story is that Arnold is just being fickle, the truth is probably that Bush is in trouble.

Schwarzenegger won the recall election in California because he convinced a core Democratic constituency, African Americans, to choose him instead of Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamente. Latinos and blacks tend not to see eye-to-eye in California, but misery still makes them odd bedfellows. Karl Rove's idea is that in suburban Ohio, places like Cleveland and Cincinnati, which have significant black neighborhoods are fertile ground for a moderate like Schwarzenegger to sway just enough to tilt the state in Bush's favor. Hence, Arnold hasn't been used in razor-thin showdown states like New Mexico or Iowa, or even Florida, because there swing voters are not likely to be black. Still the common thinking is that wouldn't Arnold want to help put Bush over the top and help the Republicans rebuild in California?

Some would speculate that Schwarzenegger simply is worried about being reelected in 2006. Very true, but it is more likely that Schwarzenegger believes that Bush will lose. We say this because Arnold has a long history of reversing himself to always be on the winning team. Most recently, he endorsed Proposition 71 only after polling indicated that the measure would pass. Before that he was ready to negotiate the construction of the state's first Indian casino in a Bay Area suburb until it appeared sentiment in Contra Costa County was against it.

So what indication does Schwarzenegger have that Bush will lose? We say it has a name: Pete Wilson. Good ol' Pete was the governor of California throughout the 1990s, and ironically he found himself in much the same paradox as Schwarzenegger. Elected in 1991, Wilson soft-pedaled his support for then incumbent George H. W. Bush in California. Thanks to Ross Perot, Clinton was the first Democrat since LBJ to carry California. Wilson might simply think that Bush is going to lose, but he is also likely to suggest that Schwarzenegger's energies must be directed in state versus out. The economic malaise of the early 90s was far worse than currently, but they underscore the same sources. Wilson's popularity in 1992, in light of the Los Angeles Riots, was a meager 15%.

Yet somehow, even as divisive as Wilson proved with measures like Proposition 187...he found himself reelected with broad support in 1994. And perhaps this is what he is suggesting to Arnold, cut a bold profile out of state and lose. Yet Wilson himself wanted to run for President but was undercut in 2000 but support by George W. Bush and the unpopularity of Proposition 209 nationally. But Wilson knows that Schwarzenegger cannot run for President yet, while 2006 is only 14 months away. Machinations aside, does Wilson have reasons to suspect Bush is done for?

This is the ominous question, and it's tremendously hard to guess what his rationale could be. Make no mistake, Arnold was not shy in September at the GOP Convention, begging the question why he's suddenly missing now.



posted by Thomas at 8:53 PM 0 comments