Colin Powell: Mr. Unelectable

Colin Powell is unelectable. Judging by the rumors, you would think he was the most popular man in America. Having never held elective office before, Powell was cajoled by many to run against President Clinton in 1996. And now, some want him to challenge Hillary Clinton for the New York Senate race of ’06. We will say it again and again though; Mr. Powell is unelectable, despite being a wonderful and dedicated public servant.

In general, African Americans rarely attain national office if they are Republican. Julius Caesar Watts represented his native Oklahoma until 2002, but Mr. Watts was also a well-known college football star at the University of Oklahoma in his younger days. Maryland Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele is often-cited as another “up-and-coming” star. But nearly every other black person in elected office sits at the local level. This is not said to denigrate these offices, but to illustrate that strangely, black Republicans seem to do poorly when more is at stake. Democrats do not fair much better, failing to ever elect more than a handful of black Senators, no black President, no black governors and black congressmen only because of district gerrymandering.

Such gerrymandering also means that while Powell could run for any Congressional seat in New York State, nearly all are “safe”. To win, he would likely need to run for the Senate in 2006. And for Powell, that is a big challenge. The assumption is that Powell would magically win over African Americans to the Republican Party. He is more moderate than Alan Keyes, but seeing how dismal Keyes did in both 1996 and 2000…that is still a speculative idea. What could happen is how Alfonzo D’Amato won the Senate in the Empire State…win the swing voters upstate.

One problem…that’s a tall order for Powell, appealing to upstate New York, and specifically vote-rich Buffalo. His achievements on issues like free trade might not sit well among idled factory workers. Not to mention the fact that he did not argue very hard to allow (using free trade as a modicum) for the importation of cheaper prescription drugs from Canada. His biggest asset is name recognition, and going against Hillary Clinton that is not much of an advantage. However, name recognition is usually a force to be reckoned with. Elizabeth Dole used it to win a Senate seat in North Carolina. Both of the Bush sons found it instrumental in being elected governor.

So what is Colin Powell’s best option? He would be an excellent choice for Vice President. Dick Cheney has done much to alienate people in both his own party and outside of it. Powell is erudite but not secretive. Powell is forthright and has a decorated military career. But as much as he has served as a cheerleader, he is not an unrepentant hawk. All of these characteristics make him a tremendous contrast to Dick Cheney. No matter who runs for President on the Republican ticket in ’08, he or she ought to give the outgoing Secretary of State a call. He may be Mr. Unelectable, but he’s not Mr. Un-likeable.