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Specter of Dissent

With Senate Majority leader Tom Daschle defeated, President Bush re-elected, and the Texas redistricting working according to plan, the Republicans stand at the very apex of their power. An ambitious agenda for 2005 awaits, but it turns out 2004 is not yet fait accompli for the future. Already, “Unpaid” explored Bush’s options if Chief Justice William Rehnquist either retired or died during the current Supreme Court term. Somehow, the story gets even weirder. It appeared that Bush had a yellow-brick road to any nomination, with the Senate slipping even more into Republican hands. Arlen Specter, the Pennsylvania senator set to succeed Orrin Hatch as Judiciary Committee chairman announced that he would approve the hearing for no judges who want to overturn Roe v. Wade. He then issued a press release a day later saying he would apply “no litmus test” in regard to abortion. Nevermind the fact that Specter was challenged in a primary with an evangelical candidate, Pat Toomey, and that Bush endorsed Specter giving him a close win. Nevermind that the general election against Democratic congressman Joe Hoeffel was also too close for Specter’s comfort. The 72-year old Specter who may never run for office again suddenly had the President by the tail.
Unless Bush invokes the recess appointment tactic and one of the justices leaves the Court while the Senate is not in session. In theory, Bush could wait until the Senate resumes on November 16th. However, with more Democratic senators this time around, there could be a costly showdown in the waning days of 2004. Recall too that if Bush utilizes the recess appointment it would expire in 2006, with the potential that the balance of the Senate could reset to Democratic control. Already Democratic strategists have mentioned that more Senate seats are up in “blue states” come 2006, but no Republicans look particularly vulnerable yet.
Still, what brought Specter to make comments about this in the first place, even if he now downplays them? Until 2002, Specter was the only Republican senator who was Jewish. After the death of Paul Wellstone in Minnesota, Republican Norm Coleman joined Specter. This is not to imply that Jews are underrepresented on Capitol Hill. It is just that the rest of them, with the exception of Virginian congressman Eric Cantor, are Democrats. And specifically, Specter’s retraction mentioned he had no desire to apply a litmus test on abortion. But what about say, cross-burning? Bush already has utilized the recess appointment tactic already, to appoint Charles Pickering to the Fifth Circuit of Appeals and William Pryor. Both of them stalled in the Senate not because of abortion concerns but instead civil rights. Pickering failed because of his leniency to cross-burner Daniel Swan in 1994. Pryor, conversely, believes that public prayer and the Ten Commandments are not out of place at government offices.
It is also true that Specter is pro-choice. Yet, he does not need his judiciary chairmanship to stop nominees like Janice Brown of the California Supreme Court or Priscilla Owen of the Texas Supreme Court. Unless pro-life Democrats defect (which seems unlikely for they could have other reasons to dislike these nominees), Bush stands to get strung up by his own party. Maine’s two female senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, combined with Rhode Island’s Lincoln Chafee, Specter himself, and three other Republicans: Lisa Murkowski, John McCain, and Mel Martinez would certainly not dismiss all conservative judges, but would like toss Owen, Carolyn Kuhl, and Janice Rogers.
Therefore, what Specter really means is something along the line of: “Go ahead, nominate conservative justices but be forewarned that Pickering and Pryor will not make it out of committee, whereas Owen, Kuhl, and Rogers will just be voted down on the floor of the Senate. Miguel Estrada and Alberto Gonzales are still welcome. Now go send Colin Powell to Israel before Arafat’s death causes a real problem.
Until there’s true transparency about Rehnquist’s health, Specter probably will not change his tune.

posted by Thomas at 8:07 PM 0 comments