Texas Justice

House Majority Leader Tom DeLay thinks he will be indicted. He had the Republican House Conference change its leadership rules because he believes the indictment is fait accompli. But that does not mean it will happen, and even if it does, will DeLay be convicted and jailed?

Unpaid is going to say no to both. The District Attorney for Travis County (where Texas’s capital city Austin sits) has noticed a great deal of state election law violations regarding the political action committee Tom DeLay founded. The full name of the PAC is Texans for a Republican Majority (TRMPAC). The DA, Ronnie Earle, happens to be a Democrat though by all accounts the elected office of district attorney in Travis County is a non-partisan one. After nailing three top members and organizers of TRMPAC, speculation remains high that Earle will arraign both the Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives, Tom Craddick, or DeLay himself. The GOP in both Texas and Washington is ready to smear Earle into oblivion. And that should tell you something.

Earle knows convicting DeLay would be next-to-impossible. However, he may wait until he has enough evidence to arraign Craddick, and call DeLay as a witness. If there’s a real political motivation to the D.A.’s strategy, getting DeLay under oath would be the equivalent of frying him. For his part, Earle has few good options. State law in Texas is quite harsh about corporations donating to legislative elections. If he prosecutes, immediately it is a witch-hunt. If he does not investigate, he becomes just another spineless Democrat. With Tom DeLay the most powerful man in Washington, the major media is afraid to allege his demise only to be shut out of the Capitol if they are wrong. But it doesn’t look good even with the set of indictments Earle already has.

Craddick and DeLay already can be called as witnesses for the prosecutions for the current indictments. Many of DeLay’s closest fundraisers may be staring at very hard time in the Texas prison system. Not to mention that any testimony given by DeLay can be used by federal authorities for additional investigations. And then, just imagine if faced with charges, DeLay has the chance to turn state’s evidence. The ensuing rabbit-hole of corruption could lead all the way to China (literally). Earle has said investigating the case is taking a long time because he said, “it’s like watching clowns climb out a Volkswagen. There are a lot more in there than I imagined.” Lou Dubose, who co-wrote the book Shrub with Molly Ivins, speculates that the Republican Party of Texas may be guilty of even greater violations than TRMPAC.

DeLay’s actions indicate he feels an indictment is coming. This would not materially affect him, but a long trial in Austin would cause serious disruption. House Majoirty Whip, Roy Blunt, would invariably help DeLay manage things while Hot-tub Tom was away. However, should DeLay leave the House under any circumstance, there is likely to be a fight brewing between moderate and more conservative Republicans. Secondly, if DeLay’s fundraising machine is eviscerated, the Congressional races in ’06 could be ugly. But most of all, DeLay’s disappearance would eliminate the biggest enemy to John McCain. Already investigating DeLay as a member of the Indian Affairs Committee for his involvement in a tribal gaming scam with two fundraisers in Louisiana, McCain knows DeLay is the reason he lost to George W. Bush in the 2000 primary season. Seeking comprehension campaign finance reform, McCain would love nothing more than to use DeLay’s misbehavior as the central plank of 2008 run.

And that should explain more or less everything. DeLay knows even if he survives the indictments, he will have to answer under oath anything Earle wants in Austin, and anything McCain wants in Dirksen. So while the Republicans in the House circle the wagons, realize in part they already have conceded defeat.