Breaking the Bank: The US is Running out Troops to Send to Iraq.

Former drug czar Barry McCaffrey suggested on Sunday’s episode of “Meet the Press” that the fifth troop rotation into Iraq would mark the limit of American military capabilities. He went on to suggest that if nothing is done, within a year “we’re in trouble”. The host of Meet the Press, Tim Russert, then asked if a larger army was necessary and McCaffrey along with other panelists agreed. None of them attempted to propose other solutions…and opening the door for a real debate. How does one solve the imminent manpower shortage in Iraq?

Hire More Soldiers: Given how the civilian American labor markets works, somehow there’s the belief that if the US offers more open positions with the armed service, more people will gladly join. But undoubtedly the conflict in Iraq has all but ensured those joining the military are from either from a proud family of servicemen, or they have few other opportunities to better themselves. During the relative peace of the Cold War, military pay and benefits were enough to ensure a middle class existence for many that served. However, for middle-class college graduates a life in the Army has become the very anathema of their ambitions. That leaves the military to compete for the most undesirable members of the American workforce.
A totally separate question is if the armed services can attract enough people from any station in life. Demographics point to this being a harder task overall as the labor market continues to shrink. Should the economy continue to grow, this task could become even more difficult.

Outsourcing: You heard us right, send most of the troops home. If most of the country is peaceful and safe as claimed, the Iraqi National Forces should have little trouble keeping the peace there. An American military contingent would remain, but largely to carry out “hornet’s nest” operations like Fallujah. However, we suspect the reason this idea is not pursued heavily is because of one word: oil.
The public eye spends plenty of time concentrating on attacks in the Green Zone and other insurgent attacks in the cities. However, far less attention is given to the struggle for Iraq’s oil-producing infrastructure. The Pentagon is coy to say how much military might is actually protecting these pipelines and oil fields as opposed to patrolling the streets of Sadr City. It is no secret how much the Bush Administration planned to use oil revenue to pay for reconstruction. McCaffrey comments indicate the US is afraid to use Iraqi troops to protect these petroleum reserves. If this commitment alone is big enough to as McCaffrey says, “break the bank”, America finds itself in a real pickle.

Beg the UN for Help: President Bush won’t call it that, but he may try and use the oil-for-food imbroglio to suggest that the UN “repay its debt to the Iraqi people”. The biggest stumbling block is none other than Secretary General Kofi Annan. While it is likely true there was corruption involving Oil-for-Food it is probably that the US firms involved were simply not getting the better end of the deals. Certainly companies like Bechtel and Halliburton are now, but even those have come with a price. Annan currently is not volunteering to bail out the US because of the nearly ad hominem style attacks by Senator Norm Coleman. Make no mistake, the United Nations would love to use Iraq as proof that no nation is as strong as to disregard the will and the resources of the UN. But he wants to make sure that efforts to unseat him are unsuccessful first.

Bring Back the Draft: Oh sure, Bush said it was just a rumor during the debates, but he’s not running for President anymore. Even though there is no shortage of young men to serve, the real questions are if the draft army would work and if the occupational strategy is ever winnable. Because of the nature of Vietnam, there is a disagreement whether conscription itself is the problem or that occupation is always a recipe for failure. No one truly wants to take the political consequences from a draft, but under the right circumstances these can be mitigated. Unfortunately given the nature of Bush’s conduct, such circumstances are unlikely to happen.