Because the best things in life are free.

 
Cut and Run

There have been no major terrorist attacks in the United States since 2001. Security lapses remain, and Osama bin Laden is nowhere to be found. The only explanation appears to be that America has been lucky, and that “hundreds of plots” have been broken up by the diligence of law enforcement. Nevertheless, the more time passes, the less luck seems a plausible answer.

Instead it seems more like Al Qaeda has pushed US attacks to the backburner. Bush appeased them by withdrawing our military footprint in Saudi Arabia. This leaves the Saudi forces to defend them against popular insurgency. Bin Laden is thrilled and the Iraqi military occupation and strengthening insurgency is precisely what he wants to see as well. In some sense, bin Laden may find Iraq to give cause to a whole new series of attacks on Americans. Yet given the indigenous origin of Iraq’s insurgency and the chance that the new government will favor Islamic rule, he may seek to leave well enough alone.

However, bin Laden may yet attack us again on behalf of other Muslims. The growing footprint in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan could find Al Qaeda turning its energies on Moscow or DC. The hotel bombing in Taba hints at Al Qaeda not only targeting Israel, but also Egypt. No group is a monolith, though. Serious debate may be going on with Al Qaeda as to where the organization should focus the majority of its energies now that US forces have packed up and left Saudi Arabia.

Americans can hope that this debate causes Al Qaeda to fragment and lose much of its effectiveness. But the US Government should not rest on its laurels. To cut and run from Saudi Arabia, or Lebanon for that matter, is one thing. To completely disengage the Islamic world is something far different. Al Qaeda will find a new a cause to champion. Should attacking the US further that cause, bin Laden and the current leadership certainly not afraid to try. But if our intelligence services and general population not know what the new cause is, never shall we know who to look for. And if we have no idea what to expect, we will find ourselves at as much of a loss for words as on that bright day in September 2001.
posted by Thomas at 7:03 PM 0 comments