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Pale Rider

No political issue proved more divisive for Democrats in the 1990s than free trade. It pitted the social liberals who wanted to encourage immigration against economic ones who favored controlled markets and powerful unions. But it also hinted that when the Republicans took control, they would face the yang to free trade’s yin: immigration. Now Hillary Clinton knows that the Republicans want to do what the Democrats did to free trade: split the baby. But she knows that won’t work and has not been afraid to mention tightening immigration in public. Everyone assumes that she does this because she wants to run for President in 2008: but look alive…it’s also extremely sweet revenge against many of these Republican Revolution generation lawmakers who pummeled her and her husband throughout the Clinton Administration.

Here at last is George W. Bush’s “NAFTA/WTO Spring”. Now in theory, there won’t be all that much drama. The House of Representatives approved an emergency war supplemental with an unusual rider about tougher immigration restrictions and now has to work out a compromise with the Senate. So as hard as it might be to find Republicans in the Senate raring to go about Social Security privatization…try finding fifty votes for this one.

After all, in December of 2004 House Judiciary Chairman James F. Sensenbrenner refused to put out another appropriations bill until heavy negotiation with the White House on these “restrictions”. This has the making to be even worse. But the Democrats can’t exactly smile. Most Americans think either party is afraid to crack down on illegal aliens. While undocumented workers are only part of the bigger picture on immigration, they elicit the most visceral response from the public. And that is the problem in a nutshell.

Throughout Bush’s time in office, attacking the most visceral fears of America has covered up for more structurally-oriented shortcomings. But on immigration there is no substitute for stopping its illegal form. The most effective way to do this has nothing to do with border security: suing employers who hire undocumented workers for tax evasion. Bush’s solution: a guest worker program.

Still, the amount of Republican fratricide ought to make for serious entertainment. Any Senator with 2008 aspirations now has to vote on this issue. Add the seeming helplessness of Bush against Sensenbrenner last December, and this could be a classic intra-party fight. And no one will smile in private more than Hillary Clinton herself.
posted by Thomas at 1:32 AM 0 comments