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New England Showdown?

We know it’s really early, but word that Massachusetts senator John Kerry plans on forming an exploratory presidential committee indicates that the 2004 primary season will start hot, very hot for the Democrats. This is because of the candidates that appear to realistically on the ballot, two are from New England: Vermont governor John Dean and Kerry. Expect Tom Daschle, Dick Gephardt, and Joe Lieberman to surrender by Iowa, leaving most likely John Edwards, Al Sharpton, Al Gore with the two Northeast candidates to canvass the Granite State in January.
Gore and Edwards will be able to pepper the state’s limited media market with plenty of ads, but as Southerners, face the same sort bias New Hampshire voters had for Bill Clinton in 1992, Bob Dole in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000. Each of these candidates lost only to rebound for their party’s nomination and face the incumbent. Clinton and Bush were Southern governors while Dole remained a purely Washingtonian influence. Edwards, facing a tough reelection bid for Senate in 2004, may elect to wait until 2008 to try for the presidency, figuring that Bush is nearly unbeatable. Sharpton may yet get some significant support somewhere, but labor unions and blacks are not strong in New Hampshire and he is likely to be unpopular.
Nevertheless, Dean and Kerry will dig in early and in a bruising winter campaign keep the nation on edge. Currently, Kerry appears he will escape with the nomination. The reason for this is that Dean is keen to seek out the favor of the more rural and traditional voters that live in the north and west. In other words, the parts of the state that resemble Vermont. Kerry will use his popularity as Massachusetts senator in Greater Mass: hi-tech corridors and more populous areas south of Concord.
In 2002, these constituencies faced off in the Republican Senate primary. Incumbent Bob Smith fought John Sununu Jr. and lost. Sununu cautiously allied himself with Greater Massachusetts and found the numbers to be in his favor. If Kerry does the same, he will ride it to victory and gird for the next week’s contest.
The rest looks decidedly less clear. Democratic Party by-laws indicate that several states may schedule their primaries as soon as possible, namely February 3, 2002. If this is true, Gore will have the advantage over Kerry and Dean. If however, only one big state is up for grabs as is currently, Virginia, Kerry and Gore are likely to fight for it while Dean will concentrate on South Carolina. Dean’s attitudes toward gun control and other issues will resonate with Southern voters. Missouri too will be a hard-fought state as it remains the bellwether for the general election since 1960.

posted by Thomas at 5:29 PM 0 comments

 
Gulf War II: a Military Review

No matter what anyone says, the upcoming war in Iraq will not be a cakewalk. Instead, it will be dinner time television fare for American who watch their armed forces try to do what they are not good at: a manhunt. The Bush administration does not want ot admit it, but as powerful as the US military is, it failed to find either Osama bin Laden or Mullah Omar in Afghanistan. This time, instead of being a wilderness, the search is headed to the cities.

First Phase: US begins a concentrated boming campaing on Baghdad, hoping that Saddam Hussein will surrender. Instead, Hussein responds by hiding. The US, hoping to leave most of the state's infrastructure intact, send Special Forces into Baghdad and other cities. Kurds attempt to mobilize but only succceed halfway. Iraqi National Congress tries to proclaim itself in control, but in reality everyone will be uncertain just what is going on. Iraqi military instead retreats to a guerilla campaign.

Second Phase: Iraqi missles take aim at Israeli military and security targets. Iraq does not have the ability to wage war with Israel, but rather enable the Palestineans to wage another intifada. Iraq also attempts to smash oil refineries and other American targets in the Gulf, but specifically not attack Arabs or Arab targets. Damage to oil production causes European oil prices to spike. EU angrily rebukes the US and demands a quick finish to the conflict.

Third Phase: EU pulls out of a coalition and Israel retakes the West Bank. Support in the Arab world now almost completely eroded. US then begins a massive invasion of troops and Iraqi ground forces withdraw. American forces quickly take Baghdad. Law and order slowly deteriorate. US Congress demands that troops be withdrawn by the end of 2003. Iraqi National Congress asks US military to withdraw, US military refuses.

Fourth Phase: Kurdish troops declare autonomy from INC. INC attempts to take control of central Iraq. US forces hunker down and occupy the bottom third. US asks that the Kurds welcome US military protection at Bayji. Kurds decline. Congress reiterates demand.

Fifth Phase: American military forces carve out "enclaves" in Bayji and Basra for UN Peacekeepers as well as supporting the INC for Baghdad. Regional elections are scheduled for November of 2003. Bush adminstrations declares US peacekeepers may be in Iraq, "for the foreseeable future".

So will Hussein be found? Does it matter? The US will have a very murky situation indeed. The principal military objective will be secure Iraq's oilfields. After that however, it's completely unclear. The reason for this is that military exercises in Afghanistan appear less and less settled every day. Again, it's hard to know the exact sequence of events. However, without any real sort of sign as to what is to come, this is my interpretation of what will occur.
posted by Thomas at 7:22 PM 0 comments