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Silent Nights?

I can’t explain to you or any person just why Trent Lott waited so long to resign. Instead of getting no one to pay attention, he allowed himself to be the exclamation point, resigning on the Friday before Christmas. Bill Frist won the office of Majority Leader on Christmas Eve, while everyone was busy digging out from the Nor’easter. African Americans are piling it on high and deep with Frist, especially since he didn’t send out any Kwanzaa cards from the GOP. Even so, the President is hiding at the ranch, Cheney in the cave, and Lott is probably still hung over in Shreveport after Ole Miss’s stunning win over Nebraska.
Lost in the fray was news that Joe Lieberman is all but certain to run for the Democratic nomination for president. As mentioned earlier, Howard Dean, Al Sharpton, and John Kerry are wondering how many more people from the Northeast can file a bid. However, when you look at the number of states Al Gore won in 2000, can you blame the New England contingent from being the most confident? Not Joseph and the Technicolor Head Shot.
Yet with Donald Rumsfeld seemingly looking to pick a fight with every member of the Axis of Evil (at once!) more and more conservatives seem to be doubting Bush’s motives for war in Iraq. Oh yeah that’s right, Daniel Pipes can talk about peacenik liberals all he wants, but this time, Nebraska Senator and Republican Chuck Hagel is beginning to disagree about the path to peace running through Baghdad. Moreover, it seems that he would have buried on page A24 save for CNN’s own Robert Novak weighing in on “Sharon’s War”. It’s hilarious to hear an old guard guy like Novak rip apart the Bush plan so eloquently, but he does it to perfection. Israeli politics are going to make the Bush administration choose which constituency he favors more: oil or Jews. Until the New Year however, expect things to be quiet. Maybe too quiet.

posted by Thomas at 12:01 AM 0 comments

 
Trent Lott Roasting on an Open Fire…

It’s Christmas, and while I do not usually expect a Senate Majority leader served on the platter, apparently the war within the Senate GOP grows. However, the problem is that while Senate Whip Don Nickels might have had enough votes to pull Lott out of the race…he might have to wait until the day before Congress reconvenes. Which is great... if you are home with nothing to do during the holidays. This awful little melodrama thankfully only has one more card to play and it’s the intriguing one. If Lott is deposed, at some point in the process, he might resign and let a Democrat fill the void. However, many involved parties with the exception of President Bush may be incommunicado until the January 6th date. Lott could shock us like Al Gore, but he's unlikely to resign and go down fighting. Expect major sabre-rattling on both sides, and if Lott goes, don't be surprised if Daschle succeeds him again as Senate Majority leader.

And in case you smelled something burning besides Ol’ Trent…that would be the Venezuelan oil industry. Despite the fact that American media is spending zero time on this issue, it’s arguably a bigger foreign policy issue than Iraq. In fact, the second largest producer of oil to the US is Hugo Chavez’s backyard. While a coup seemed to resolve the problem in April…in fact you now have a huge general strike that has crippled the country. Gasoline prices are going up in the US, which is certain to slow economic growth here. So if we are so willing to bomb Baghdad to resolve things, why not Caracas?

One reason may be that as a democracy, we are disinterested in doing so. The other reason may be is that Bush does not think that there is a landmass south of Mexico or Cuba. But apparently it may be because there is no good answer. It’s not as if Chavez is going to play the role of a South American Qaddafi. It also may be because Powell himself isn’t sure what you are supposed to do, and that despite being preoccupied with that other nation in the Middle East, he has free rein. There were accusations that the US was behind the coup in April, and it’s hard to know what lay ahead if petroleum production reaches a standstill. Of course, even if the US acts, history has shown that in Latin America it prefers more “covert means”.

Incidentially however, Chavez’s rise does relate to certain pandering in the Persian Gulf. As Venezuela too is dependant on the export price of oil, overproduction has hurt the economy ever since export prices collapsed in 1986. It just so happened that instead of producing an Osama bin Laden-style revolutionary, from Venezuela the world got the myrmidon Hugo Chavez.

posted by Thomas at 12:42 AM 0 comments

 
The All-Consuming Fire

Two political bombshells in one day, and the implications could not be more far reaching. The first is that Don Nickels of Oklahoma is eager to supplant Trent Lott for majority leader. Of course, if Lott were to resign or be removed, Nickels would be the most likely candidate along with Bill Frist of Tennessee, and perhaps Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. But McConnell is worried that if Lott resigns in disgrace, he will punish the party in the best way he knows how: leave the Senate. Mississippi’s Democratic governor, Ronnie Musgrove, then appoints recently gerrymandered ex-congressman Ronnie Shows to split the Senate 50-50. Of course, remember Lott was the one to castigate Jim Jeffords’ departure in February. Apparently of course, the other senior partners in the GOP Senate want a sign from President Bush before continuing. Consider for Bush though that this is a no-win situation. Either he alienates his conservative base in the South that like men like Lott or alienate the Senate leadership for the two most important years of his presidency. You get the feeling that Bush would rather see the Supreme Court play kingmaker but this time it’s him.

Not to be outdone, Al Gore tells the nation on 60 minutes that it is over. He will not make a return overture for the presidency. So why is this important? Because now that Gore is out of the primary…the Hobbesian nightmare has begun between who knows how many people that will ultimately vie for the Democratic nomination. Remember too that Joe Lieberman has a cozy base of operations in Connecticut which like Dean and Kerry place him in very good position to day trip into New Hampshire. So of course, don’t be surprised that John Edwards, the Southerner already has plans for a firewall in South Carolina. It also casts doubts who would win in Iowa exactly. Polling data has suggested it would be Gephardt because of his proximity to the state. But the same data seemingly underpins Daschle’s chance. This doesn’t make much sense, since the Iowa electorate is bound to represent Daschle’s hometown of Aberdeen, South Dakota over Gephardt’s in Saint Louis, Missouri.

It appears that pundits proclaiming a "Pax Republica" in the historic November mid-term elections were a slight bit premature. Who could have thought that as bad as it looked before Senator Lott took the podium that fateful night in the Capitol that he would singlehandly swtich the momentum to the Democrats just as the point in which the GOP appeared ascendant. Within the course of but a couple weeks suddenly Mary Landrieu appears to be the Democrats' Genevieve to Karl Rove's Atilla. Bush just better hope the weapon inspectors find something incriminating, and fast.

posted by Thomas at 10:29 PM 0 comments

 
A Lott of Questions

It was supposed to be Strom Thurmond’s night on Thursday. He was supposed to be the guest of honor with his illustrious Senate career behind him, and the Senate newly returned to Republican hands. The champion of the GOP in the Senate was there, one Trent Lott. The Senate majority-turned minority-back to majority leader praised Thurmond’s “Dixiecrat” run for president in 1948 and declared that Mississippi (Lott’s home state) had voted for him and that if the rest of the nation had joined in, there would not be all these “problems”.

Not long after of course, people found the clip of Thurmond proclaiming that there were not enough soldiers in the wake of World War II to force the “nigger race into our schools”, homes, and golf courses. Instantly the connection was made that Lott was trying to win brownie points with Southern nostalgia. Except it was probably the wrong piece of nostalgia. Lott was most likely referring to the platform of “states’ rights” and the ever more increasing bite that the federal government took out of state autonomy. The destruction of slavery and the Civil War was just part of a two hundred year struggle with the “gummint” and “freedom”.

And there is no doubt that Lott paints himself as a fan of states’ rights. But with the great expansion of federal power after domestic terror, Republicans often were chided as discarding their fear of big government for more protection. And with Lott’s base the biggest Navy yard in the south, he’s likely to vote for any defense pork. In 1998, he even went so far to introduce legislation that trumped state laws about “rebuilt wrecks”. So why then does it surprise us that Lott is a hypocrite, not a racist?

Well it is because the Council of Conservative Citizens continues to praise Lott for his association with him. And they want him to use federal troops to patrol the border. The real irony, federal troops cannot serve because of states’ rights legislation: the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 at the end of Reconstruction. So if this whole matter appears to be confusing, don’t worry. Instead of a nice way to celebrate Thurmond’s life and the resumption of Republican control of the Senate, Lott has provided more questions. Lotts of them.

posted by Thomas at 6:52 PM 0 comments

 
Another Gulf War Piece

It’s no secret that President Bush wants to find any excuse to send in the troops and oust Saddam Hussein. We here at “Unpaid” went so far as to explain just what is likely to happen when the troops start marching. So the question is, why are we going into Iraq in the first place? Is it really all about weapons of mass destruction, or oil, or what?
There is a possibility that Iraq has nuclear weapons, but the problem with this assertion is that Iraq isn’t about to use them. Iraq is likely to have to sough to develop them because of the Iran-Iraq war and then subsequent fears of an Israeli-Iraq conflict. In fact considering that Iraq is surrounded by nuclear powers like Russia, Israel, the US and the like, one would be hard pressed to think a cagey dictator like Saddam Hussein would want to use nukes for anything but deterrence.
So is it oil? It is true that if the US seizes Iraq that after about five or ten years production there would be enough to minimize reliance on regimes like Saudi Arabia. But the problem with this line of thinking is that if Saddam is left to his own devices he might try and seize Saudi Arabia again, or Kuwait and drive up the price of oil. Unfortunately, most of the foreign oil the US comes from Venezuela, not Saudi Arabia. Secondly, Hussein would not attempt to sequester the oil; he needs it to gain revenue. At one point the Economist pointed out that in fact, while Hussein would keep the pumps going, a radical regime like the Taleban would tear down the wells and plunge the world oil market into crisis.
But if this is what Bush and the Administration fear, why then exactly go into Iraq. The uncertainty and uncomfortable state of affairs in the Gulf exists because the price of oil is going down, and creating more supply from a place like Iraq is going to accelerate the decline of such regimes in places like the Kingdom. It is possible that the US is trying to secure these reserves for the future, but it rings hollow because of the infrastructure invested in Saudi Arabia. To drill in Iraq is to invite economic collapse. But if Bush is worried that these other regimes are tenuous, doing this will be a self-fullfilling prophecy. As the price of oil dives, so will the survival of the emirs along the Gulf and the potential for a radical government to rise.
So why then regime change? In a word, Israel. It appears that the US is trying to prevent a war between Iraq and Israel by eliminating the last major Arab military in the region. The reason? Israel is getting eager to seize more and more of the West Bank and fears that Iraq could be aid the Palestinean cause with weapons. After all, nations like Jordan and Egypt are prohibited by treaty from really getting involved. Iraq, however, has nothing to worry about. It’s already a regional paraiah and would stand to gain points by standing up to the Israelis for the rest of the Arab world. And unlike the Jordanians and Saudis, the Iraqis have a military that will discourage Israel for going to war with them. After all, if Iraq declares war on Israel, it’s over, but if Israel is the provocateur, Bush may decide winning the Jewish vote isn’t worth it.
Then again, if Iraq is removed, Israel becomes the most important military power in the Middle East with the exception of Turkey. It means the arc of American empire there is very strong. It also means that unlike the first Gulf War, a redux is likely the point of no return. Once Saddam is gone, it’s a sign that the Middle East shall soon be in ferment.

posted by Thomas at 12:40 AM 0 comments

 
Kerry Admits to Committee

First it was Al Sharpton. Then it was Vermont governor Howard Dean. And now at last, John Kerry has upped the pressure on the 21st century Andrew Jackson: Al Gore. Kerry announced he will set up an exploratory committee to seek the Democratic nomination for the Presidency. This puts pressure on Gore and Southerner sweetheart John Edwards to move. Gore is set to host Saturday Night Live in two weeks, but he may yet wait until 2003 to make his announcement. Whether or not stated, most campaigns will have to be viable by August of 2003 to be ready for an ever-earlier primary season.
By announcing early, Kerry may sap fundraising dollars from his regional rival, Howard Dean. However, the Doctor is about to be freed from his day to day duties in Montpellier. This means he can spend a lot more time in New Hampshire than Kerry. This is not to say that it isn’t easier to get from Boston to Manchester. When Congress is not in session you can be sure Kerry will be canvassing the state. However Dean is empowered by new FEC guidelines that allow him to collect a salary from his campaign.
So at least at the moment expect Dean to hit the more rural areas of the state in the early going with Kerry hoping to hit its more urban ones. Al Sharpton meanwhile has a problem on his hands. Iowa has Iowa City, which is 14% to use as his proscenium for the straw poll. New Hampshire on the other hand is 2% black. No city or township is more than 3% black. At least South Carolina has a healthy population of African Americans along with Richmond, Virginia.
The other detail that is significant is John Kerry’s reliance on the trial lawyers lobby for money. It was stated that John Edwards the protégé of this lobby in the primary, yet Kerry early entrance again might mean slimmer pickings for the boy senator from North Carolina. At least there are more lawyers than African-Americans in New Hampshire.

posted by Thomas at 12:20 AM 0 comments