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Light Shines Glaringly on Manheim

The Los Angeles Times "It Pays to be a Star on the Celebrity Circuit" broke the story today about Aaron Tonken's bizarre fundraising scheme. Here's a guy who would promise celebrities lots of money to appear at events and then fail to pay them. While most people call this type of person a shyster, the government authorities now claim that Tonken didn't pay not because he kept it to himself. He apparently has little or no wealth that is visible, and one wonders if this is nothing more than a man who made promises he couldn't keep.

The story has a weird Loyola Law School twist: professor Karl Manheim took a sabbatical recently. When his sister, Camryn Manheim, the rotund star of "The Practice, acted as master of ceremonies in September for a Tonken event, the mysterious Canadian offered a "round the world trip" for Karl. The paper indicates that from this promise the professor believed he would incur damages of more than $50,000. The funny part is this statement and the entire story itself doesn't tell us anything that you don't learn in law school or from working in promotions. Most celebrities take money to appear at events, though not all ask for them. Most people damaged in situations like the Manheims won't sue unless they think there is more than $50,000 worth in damages to be had. In fact, the only question you should have is where is the damages Karl is talking about? Did he really spend $50,000 on air travel for his sabbatical? If not, did he take the trip assuming Tonken would pay for it? And lastly, did Camryn think her appearance at the event was worth $50,000? Or was it just that the total cobbling of a more expensive itinerary...The fact that Carmryn received a $25,000 Harley another time she appeared for Tonken...As well as bad faith the reason? And even if so, how are they going to get a judgment against Tonken if he really is broke?

I mean, seriously?
posted by Thomas at 9:43 PM 0 comments

 
Murder One

Though I haven't seen any reason to think that Criminal Law Professor (and former Federal Public Defender for the District of Baltimore) Sasha Natapoff would mourn the death of any of her erstwhile adversaries at US Attorneys Office, that doesn't mean any people in the federal judiciary have ignored the cold-blooded murder of federal prosecutor John Luna. When it was annouced Luna had been found dead, the Boston Globe reported tje public defenders' office was full of teary-eyed people.
Death threats can be common, as many people thought that Luna had been killed for going after a drug ring in Baltimore. The most recent rumor however, provided by the New York Post is that Luna was killed by opportunistic thieves while on a late-night errand around his office. In this posit proves true, it will comfort many in the legal community because any attempt by organized crime to intimidate the "Feds" is almost legendary in nature. Just like how the World Trade Center attack caused many people to think about how they previously felt that hijackings were a thing of the past, the US Attorney and all those involved are getting the same bad vibes from Luna's corpse. It seems as there were mutliple assailants and the distance travelled from his work is more than just a detour.

While this criminal investigation may not have the celebrity of other cases, it appears someone called Luna after he made an attempt to be seen at the Federal Courthouse in Baltimore, travelled north to Pennsylvania. There is reason to think that Luna was looking for mutual sex partners on website and the like. But even if that's true, doesn't that just mean someone either sane or crazy could have discovered Luna's information on the site and planned to kill him. If the murder was motivated by anything other than roberry it's hard to close the book on any outcome. Could it even be a person who sought to kill members of the US Attorney's Office to protest that Circuit's (the 4th's) tought stand on the war on terrorism. In a week without Supreme Court decisions, a murder of a US Attorney is probably the biggest legal story of the week.
posted by Thomas at 1:02 AM 0 comments

 
I know, I know....you want some new content already. I'm working on it...sheesh... ;-)
posted by Thomas at 1:16 AM 0 comments

 
A Million Mogadishus?

Columbia University's most reviled assistant professor, Nicholas De Genova, turned out the be smartest one of them all. For after all, he stated "I wish for a million Mogadishus" at an anti-war teach-in the university held in Low Library on an otherwise quiet Wednesday night in the City. Columbia President (and recent affirmative action defendant from his stint at Michigan) Lee Bollinger distanced himself from the remarks. Historian Eric Foner, the organizer, looked askance at what the green academic said. De Genova tried numerous times to explain what he meant in op-eds and other correspondence. He was drowned out.

And now it really doesn't matter after all. For while "Black Hawk Down" cost then-Defense Secretary's Les Aspin his job, we doubt Don Rumsfeld is going to retire for the last time groundfire brought down a heliocopter and killed approximately the same number of troops as in 1993. Or the time before that, or the time before that. As the BBC surmises nicely, the Iraqi resistance has gotten good and picking off the weakest link in the American military chain: heliocopters. Forget car bombs, assassination ploys, or the "weapons of mass destruction". At this point, the Iraqis have found the principal weakness of the post-war occupation. With a nation's infrastructure more or less in tatters, heliocopters provide an essential means to transfer material and personnel into remote locations. A great idea, but remember, "peppering the LZ"? Remember the fear of the shot coming up from the jungle and into the huey? Well this time, it's not so much a question of shooting at random: it's that given the rather fuel inefficient nature of heliocopters, a bit of practice means any militia could learn how to shoot them down. The birds can't go very far without needing more fuel, and they leave the tank exposed to the ground.

And so, this is precisely the point Mr. De Genova was making. Will a million Mogadishus (18 million troop casulties), convince the American war machine to stop? How much blood on our nose will be enough to have us disengage? As it stands, the government believes there will be an armed presence in the country until 2006. Figure that in first half of November, thirty-nine heliocopter fatalities have been disclosed. If that number doubles in a month it will be seventy eight per month. Should American forces stay until July of 2006 that is thirty-three months left of military occupation (or presence if you prefer). That would equal 2,574 deaths by heliocopter-related attacks alone. A drop in the bucket compared to Vietnam, but a sign that the American military machine may need to reconsider its Achilles heel, the heliocopter. Incidentially, if the pace of attacks stablizes there would be only on the order of 198 heliocopters shot down. So if you are hoping for a million Mogadishus, it likely won't occur. Or more precisely, it won't occur in Iraq but who knows what regime may be next?


posted by Thomas at 2:16 AM 0 comments

 
I, Schwarzenegger

Everyone seems to have a suggestion why Arnold Schwarzenegger won the special recall election. Latinos carried him, Jews (in the Jerusalem Post) said they won it for Arnie. Tare nice thoughts, but Schwarzenegger won the election on one issue alone: abolishing the vehicle registration fee. If you doubt this...look at the counties that voted for the recall on October 7 that also voted Gray Davis in 2002. And don't forget how Los Angeles County, usually a liberal bastion, split on the issue. And so the question remains, who wanted the Governator? The answer to that is those people that drive. As southern California relies less on public transportation than the "Bay Area" it was clear that this vote was really just a referendum on the unpopular maneuver by Davis raising the vehicle registration fee to its pre-1997 level. In fact, the higher the car ownership percentage in the county (with the exception of Los Angeles) nearly correlates to the success of the recall. And so Schwarzenegger tells us he will abolish the "car tax" and all will be right with the world.

Except he sort of can't. Sure, he can write the idea of a vehicle registration fee out of law, and have the Legislature pass it, but what the fee pays for (you know, roads, license plates...) can't exactly well...I mean it's not like they repave the roads around here for free. So, the attitude would be able to cut other programs in the state budget ... except ballot measures already truncate much of a governor's flexibility in parsing out different dimensions of the state budget. The short answer: by law Schwarzenegger can't really do anything but sell the highways (or start charging tolls which is highly unpopular) the state owns and literally can't do anything to the federal highways that crisscross Los Angeles but regular maintenance.

But the story doesn't end there. The federal government hands out a copious amount of aid to maintain the interstate highways, (after all, they feds built them back in 1957) but under President Bush most of that funding, at least in California, has been curtailed because of the need to allocate funding for the Department of Homeland Security. So surprise, surprise, surprise. California's robust economy wasn't hiding a massive spending orgy by Davis, but rather the steady decline of return from the money California sends to Washington DC.

Schwarzenegger believes that a federal bailout is evident, not just for the "car tax", but for the entire budget. Bush certainly would like to help him. Unfortunately, the President can't spend the people's money...the Congress has to. And if such a thing occurs, expect other states that are battlegrounds for the 2004 election to line up. It's so unlikely, that even former California governor Pete Wilson or Sen. Diane Feinstein don't think it's possible.

Feinstein and Wilson opposed each other in 1990 for the governor's race, and while DiFi rebounded to become Senator in 1992...Pete's designs on becoming President himself exploded when he had vocal chord surgery in 1997. As for the current President, he became Governor of Texas in 1994, and thought he might have to face Davis as the Democrat party candidate in 2004. And while he seemingly killed Davis' political futurestarving the federal highway transportation fund, so too may Bush have sealed his own fate.
posted by Thomas at 9:58 PM 0 comments

 
Is This About the Patriot Act?

Forget the California gubernatorial recall. On a day when nearly everyone's attention was diverted, why does the Federal Bureau of Investigation admit it bugged the office of Philadelphia mayor, John Street? The Bureau seems to think there's some major corruption occurring, and while Mr. Street is fighting a bitter election campaign at the moment, he seems to think that this is the work of the Bush administration trying to win Pennsylvania. How all of this interrelates is anyone's guess. How the FBI got a federal warrant to plant the bug is another. Now it's no secret that Karl Rove's calculations place Pennsylvania as a "in play" state. Somehow though, it seems a bit of a reach to assume that Rove is taking a line from Tom DeLay and using federal law enforcement to further his electoral goals. The article mentions that other warrants were served, so a judge would have to have signed off on those as well.

Nevertheless, the most curious actor in the story so far is Sen. Arlen Specter. The wunderkind of the trial lawyers, Specter effectively faces a primary and general election campaign to keep his senator seat in the Keystone state. He probably wants to appear as moderate as possible by demanding answers from the US Attorney's Office down the street. Nevertheless, thanks to the PATRIOT Act it's unlikely the FBI has to respond right away, and considering some of the businessmen involved in the alleged corruption are Arab, and Republican mayoral candidate Sam Katz is presumably Jewish...(along with Specter and Gov. Rendell) it's clear that someone is in deep trouble.
posted by Thomas at 9:45 PM 0 comments

 
The Last Laugh

The International Herald Tribune drops the bomb Thursday about OPEC's decision to cut production. It's a bit of mystery if the newspaper's analysis is correct and Bush's attempt to look over the cartel's shadow caused the Organization to cut product with the thought that the US would gleefully flood the world oil market when Iraq was ready to go. However, a certain guerilla war is making this impossible. The OPEC states feel that their market share is decling and in many of those countries, oil export price determines the books. As a result, the inevitably of supply and demand means that OPEC will hold out on lower production until it figures out what is going on in Iraq. The threat Saddam Hussein would set it's wells on fire threatened to crush the economy, but now that there is no longer a fear of that, the cartel is moving against the "neocons" of the Bush Administration, who hope that Iraq will allow us to break free of the grip of foreign oil.

Alas, it may not be time to worry about lines at gas stations just yet, but there is an ominous problem to all this. Saudi Arabia current is the only state has enough oil resources to keep the market liquid. As the Saudis are part of OPEC, they largely determine just how liquid (no pun intended) the petroleum market it. The cut in production is due to hit just as winter energy costs rev up and more petroleum and refineries are dedicated to heating oil production. Although not the end of the world, the increased energy costs could really deal a severe blow to economic recovery until the weather warms in '04. It doesn't help that President Bush is seen as cozy, already, to the Texas energy firms like Enron and the Saudi royal family. In fact, unless Iraq is more or less ready to ramp up oil production to meet OPEC head on, the winter is going to be rather tough from an energy point of view. So much so that it would appear at least on Middle East geopolitics, OPEC gets the last laugh.
posted by Thomas at 10:58 PM 0 comments

 
Bush Country Antics

Don't expect John Whitmire of Houston to get any Christmas cards this year. After he returned to Texas, Governor Rick Perry called an unprecedented third special session of the Texas State Legislature. The much ballyhooed redistricting plan has been passed...in principle. So it appears that the Mastero of Texas politics, Tom DeLay has won. In his brutal chessmatch for control of the districts, the GOP is likely to dominate for a generation...except...a new challenge now haunts the Lone Star State. That's right, the Supreme Court is going to decide the merits of gerrymandering in January. As Republicans have ratched up attempts to redraw Congressional maps with whole cloth, the likelihood exists that it will toss aside the current precedent. In which case...sometime next year during the election the bomb is going to drop. The GOP won't be crippled for '04 in this regard, but it likely means that new bipartisan committees would be developed and balance the states out much more comprehensively.

But if we only told you the news that others regurgitate, what good would we be? So here's a surprise and underreported story: a federal judge was tossed off a case in South Florida after making comments about parties in the trial. Well moreover, Hoeveler has called into question the willingness of Gov. Jeb Bush and the Florida sugar industry to simply abide by legislation and judicial decisions demanding a clean up of the Everglades. If you wonder why this is important, consider...Jeb is hoping to push for strong support from the Florida sugar industry to secure Republican interests in the Sunshine State. The only problem is that the Everglades are slowly being poisoned by phosphate runoff from the sugar plants. By canning the judge, it could effectively mean the massive US Restudy project to rehabitiltate the 'glades could stall...and in 2004...Bush may be trapped trying to help his brother or save himself. This story definitely has some legs.
posted by Thomas at 10:34 PM 0 comments

 
ANWR Calling

With everyone waiting on the decision later today by the Ninth Circuit about the California Recall, Congress has been able to stoke the fires for another crack at ANWR. President Bush and the western GOP Senators are eager to use the blackout in August to prove that a more "comprehensive" energy policy be devised at the national level. Alas, the intention is good, but once again, the problem of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge remains. The amount of oil likely retrievable is not really going to affect the US petroleum market. The reason instead that Alaskans like it is that their economy has gone from industries like drilling (which is a solid middle class job in the Great White North) to fish processing, which pays decidedly less. Add to the fact that ecological damage could be high or nonexistent, and the fact that President Bush refuses to push for drilling in offshore sites in Florida which have more oil and you have the ultimate greater-good, lesser-good dichotomy. After all, with the exception of Pennsylvania and California, most states traditionally with big cities had to import energy from states with smaller populations. Now that Texas is among the most populous states, and California has stiffer environmental regulations, this situation has been turned on its head.

But before you turn your head away from this issue, it's important to understand why ANWR continually gets brought up. Recall again, that Alaska's economy is all but falling away, and that after Sen. Frank Murkowski became governor in 2002 he appointed his daughter Lisa to the Senate. On paper, it appears that this race could decide the US Senate in 2004, however the retirments of John Edwards, Zell Miller, Fritz Hollings, et alia in the South could make this a moot point. Also, don't forget, the Senate Democrats are on a roll lately, overturning both the new FCC rules on media ownership (resign now, Mr. Powell) and overtime pay mitigation. So there's definitiely the chance for a showdown before Bush heads to Thailand for the APEC summit in October. Of course, this story won't get nearly as much play as the $87 billion Dubya seeks for the continuation of the Franco-Prussian War in Iraq or Carol Mosely Braun's official announcement to run for President. Hell, even Wesley Clark is going to get more airtime. But the harsh reality of the blackout, the political stew boiling in Alaska, and the sight of tape loops of wild caribou before Christmas mean ANWR's back...on the table.
posted by Thomas at 12:07 AM 0 comments

 
Let Them Eat Cake

So while the Texas 11 now hunker down and wait to see what Rick Perry does next, and California voters await to see if Arnold Schwarzenegger will actually debate...and if and if and if....Hurrican Isabel makes landfall...President George Bush interrupted your Sunday Night Football telecast with an address to the country about the money required to rebuild Iraq and Afghnistan...all $87 billion of it. And Congress is ready to give him the cash if he explains what his buying with this allotment. So it would appear we are back to the 1980s except....

The Washington Post reports that a new poll says that the majority of the 'merican people want Bush to not spend the money...or if they do...repeal the tax cut. So it appears that while there are significant gradations on who is more likely to support it: Republican men to Democratic women...the telling development is that independents are not behind it, and men are almost evenly divided.

Though it would seem unlikely that Bush is all done for now...he definitely has created a serious monster that apparently is turning itself loose. And this time, Bush can't escape by saying "Let the taxpayers eat cake".
posted by Thomas at 7:57 PM 0 comments

 
Here Come the Zapatistas

World history makes a pit stop in Mexico this week as the world's free trade representatives land in Cancun for the World Trade Organization's Semiannual Ministerial Conference. So far the only funny, beach related protest has been peaceful. Having a world event at a beach resort during hurricane season seems odd enough, but to schedule during September 11 is just morbidly ironic. Add to that, it's an event about globalization in a country representing the best and worst about globalization: Mexico.

But let's not beat around the George Bush. The world trembles to hear what happens. First and foremost, most developing nations are desperate to have tarrifs and farm subsidies eliminated in the developed world. The USA and the Europeans are eager NOT to do that, and while it might seem that the developed nations are out of luck, you would be mistaken. For now most of them realise that their regimes are in trouble from the spectre of international terrorism. The infamous "19 hijackers" didn't murder 3,000 people in the name of Allah...they did it to force the Saudi Arabian royal family to realize, in the words of Czar Alexander II: "We can either abolish serfdom from above, or they will do it from below." Poor nations could easily compete with the US and Europe if the subsidies are gone on agriculture and other low tech products. This is what unions and other entrenched companies fear around the world.

But hey, it doesn't end there. The Bush Administration wants the People's Republic of China to stop fixing it's exchange rates so as to make American made manufacturing goods more affordable in China. The Chinese, of course, are all too happy to stick it to Bush for demonizing him over that spy plane two years ago. The Europeans would be more than happy to see that happen, but remember, much of their heavy industry now occurs in the developing world. But it's not just that Bush wants to be a hypocrite: he is scared about that 2004 thing and he knows that states with manufacturing jobs are restless...all too willing to toss him overboard. Having the Chinese take the hit saves him political capital, but with Iraq a war zone and Afghanistan falling into anarchy...he might be all out of bullets before too long.

And what about Cancun itself, a perfect metaphor for the uneasy globalized world. The economy is based on services( tourism) and faces the law of diminishing returns with a tricky balance to strike with the natural beauty and environmental impact that tourism brings. Add that Mexico is slowly being ripped apart by class war and those really high-minded rebels in Chiapas, and well .... on the one hand it's nothing new under the sun. On the other hand, an illiterate man in the developing world will base whether he joins the ranks of terrorism or starts a small business on just how much better his lot gets in the next year or so. For even Alexander II, the most progressive of all Russian czars, was killed by revolutionaries because despite abolishing feudal serfdom, most Russians were still starving... in 1862.

As the AP story says, the naked protestors may elicit a giggle, but the Zapatistans are on their way.
posted by Thomas at 11:22 PM 0 comments

 
Speaking of the Supreme Court...

The days are getting shorter, and so with the harvest about to be culled from the fields, this can only mean that the Supreme Court is ready to start another term. It is true that the Supreme Court is gearing up for another term, and they are going to be in session tomorrow. However, it's overtime for the justices. FEC v. McConnell or should we say The United States Federal Elections Commission v. Sen. Mitchell McConnell rolls into the docket tomorrow morning. Due to fact that the current session ends by the start of the next one (October 8th), campaign fundraisers, politicians, television stations, interest groups, and even you and I wait with baited breath. And even more ironically, the leadoff arguments will be between noted Federalist Society members: Ken Starr for the opposition and Ted Olson for the FEC. It can't get any weirder than this. Ken Starr, the man who hunted Bill Clinton for years as the Independent Counsel for the US Congress, walks into court to face the Solicitor General of the United States. Olson got the job because Bush signed the Bipartsian Campaign Reform Act with a great deal of anguish. As the Solicitor General, he must defend the Executive Office which is ultimately...yup the Federal Elections Commission.

But the plotline is anyone's guess about how the judges will rule. Neverthless, as the court of last appeal, the law will either be cut down, remanded, or otherwise refit to the US Supreme Court's instructions. The impact will be huge as Howard Dean has hinted me might opt out of public campaign financing and fight Bush head-to-head in a money primary. Bush is seen as grudgingly supporting the BCRA and so either way it is a defeat for him in some capacity. Either he loses in name, or he loses the ability to use more "soft money". The ways things are going, Bush might actualy hope for something with a non-military victory. After all, he nearly is begging for more money for the war in Iraq and has nothing to show for it. But it's also quite fitting that the start of the 2004 campaign season begins with the Supreme Court, just as 2000's election ended in the chambers of....the Supreme Court.


posted by Thomas at 4:42 PM 0 comments

 
Packing the Bench

Filling the federal judiciary with like-minded people has been a Presidential prerogative since oh, I dunno, Marbury v. Madison? Dubya, in his hopes of finding just those people who think akin to him, had selected Miguel Estrada as a person to nominate to a federal circuit court in the hopes of promoting him to the Supreme Court whenever someone decides to retire. Estrada isn't popular because he never has written an opinion on abortion or anything else. As a result, the Senate has nothing to ask him about when it comes to decide if he's open to constitutional interpretation or not. Estrada was also sort of an attempt at Bush Affirmative Action, putting token minorities into high places to claim a committment to diversity. The story was out earlier Thursday, and we only amend a link for you here.

So what made all the Democrats willing to use the fillibuster on this guy besides the overriding abortion issue that writes checks from the National Organization of Women and the Family Research Council? The answer is in part the Federalist Society, which was started by Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham during his days in law school. The Federalist Society is many things to many people, but they also do a great job of being the modern-day fount of strict constructionism. Now, the funny part is not that a bunch of white men in the tree house can stick to this model. Indeed, liberal law students only founded the rival American Constitution Society in 1999. The humor comes from the fact that Bush has scoured long and hard to name federal judiciary nominees that sound like they were picked by Karl Rove:

Priscilla Owen (female justice) from Texas, Bill Pryor (Alabama Attorney General), Caroline Kuhl (woman jurist), and Charles Pickering of Miss-uh-sippi. Pickering made those choice comments about black people that he seemingly can't recall. Who knows, maybe it's not true. Owen, of course, was selected after Clinton had made his own selection but the Republican Senators from Texas, Jon Cornyn and Kay Bailey Hutchinson refused to submit his form (which they have to) to the Senate Judiciary Committe. Pryor is a embroiled in the Ten Commandments spat in Alabama, and Kuhl has yet to surface on the radar. Conservative justices all, and all aimed at a swing vote consitutency.

Now the irony comes when the Post then adds an editorial that is doleful of how smear politics worked. The New York Times countered with an opinion so defensive of state power it sounded like it was secretly written by Robert Byrd. Luckily, there was no mention of the "Republic", Marcus Tullius Cicero, the Twelve Tables, the Rostrum, or even the populares and optimates. However, Gaius Ambulator Bush finds himself in a tricky situation, needing to either call up another replacement from his ever thinning depth chart or to wait until after 2004 to suggest a "new guy". Bush really just wants someone to be ready when Rehnquist, O'Connor, or even Anthony Kennedy give it up. And he'll kick himself if John Paul Stevens resigns and he doesn't get a chance to blast the last vestiges of the Ford Administration from the US government. But let's face facts: Senate Democrats have to at least respect the person El Presidente Arbusto sends to the floor for a vote. And if Bush can't pack the bench, is it safe to say his influence has faded to where he needs to pack his bags instead?

That question, we find out, has only begun to be answered.



posted by Thomas at 10:29 PM 0 comments

 
Curtains for the Texas 11?

The Dallas Morning News broke this story late day about how one of the "fugitive" Texas state senators, John Whitmire, is going to leave exile in Albuquerque and return to Houson. To hear them tell it, the game is up and the Democrats are finished. In fact, even the Washington Post seems to convey that it's time for an exit strategy. Nevertheless, this isn't quite the full story.

Effectively, when the measure to redistrict appeared at the end of the regular session of the Texas Congress, 50 House member bolted for Oklahoma, with Tom DeLay in hot pursuit. DeLay pressured Gov. Rick Perry to call special sessions. At the first special sessions, the Democrats, who comprise 12 of the 31 state senate seats in Texas, refused to put the issue on the ballot. Frustrated, Lt. Gov. Dave Dewhurst amended the Congressional Rules to allow measures to come to the Senate floor in the second special section with a simple majority instead of a two thirds vote. Hence 11 of the 12 Democrats bolted to the Albuquerque Marriott. This destroyed quorum, and caused the second session to collapse on August 26th. Whitmire actually returned home over the weekend to Houston, where his district buffets the northern reaches of the city and suburbs of Harris County. But nevertheless, quorum isn't established until Whitmire returns to Austin. There's reason to think that unless he's arrested Whitmire might not be doing that: “I just don’t understand the rationale of staying in New Mexico when we’re not in session,” he said. So hypothetically there is the possibility that arrest could happen, but it's also likely that he could book a flight back to Albuquerque. After all, Whitmire was in his district all weekend and saw no shenanigans. It's also evident that Perry has aggravated people by having two special sessions in a row. As the Texas Congress isn't schedule to convene again until January of 2005, it's safe to say this battle isn't over just yet.

Sen. Ken Armbrister had been the Andrew Johnson among his colleague, preparing apparently to show that at least he wasn't backing down. The other 10 aren't leaving just yet...and who can blame them. New Mexico governor Tony Richardson still has a few mind games to play with Tom DeLay. Perry still has to call another special session and see what the Democrats do. Furthermore, the 2/3 clause would have to be suspended...again....so before you think it's over, don't.

posted by Thomas at 10:04 PM 0 comments

 
That Which Doesn't Matter and That Which Does

Wonder why I never mention the California Recall? Reason being...the election has minimal importance on what happens in the state, but at the same time, it's also because none of the candidates will likely win in '06. Gray Davis also might yet pull it out, so if that is the case, neither Cruz Bustamente, Ahnold, or Tom McClintock has a political future left. Furthermore, Schwarzengger refuses to anything but the most minimal number of debates. Who does this remind you of...perhaps a primary warrior named George W. Bush? Yes that's right, don't be fooled: this race is really between two robotic, career politicians in Bustamente and McClintock. Schwarzenegger has been the media darling so far, but the longer this campaign goes...the less substance he will be able to provide and look a lot like Will Ferrell on Saturday Night Live saying "strategery".

So onto a story of mind-numbing complexity and importance to the future of the world. President Bush has sent Treasury Secretary John Snow to China on the hopes of getting Beijing to stop fixing the exchange rate between US and Chinese currency. In the Bush White House, this measure is seen as crucial to help making American-made manufacturing products more competitive worldwide. The Chinese have promised the following. Of course, there's no certainty yet as to the successfulness of the strategy. The problem is, Bush seemingly doesn't have a whole lot of other ideas how to revive the job market, especially in manufacturing.

So why, you ask, does it seem that all our jobs have gone to immigrant workers, outsourced, downsized, or just generally retired off? Well, the answer is that the idea of "skilled labor" has largely gone by the wayside. Firms that never would have operated plants, or outsourced to the Third World are willing to. Part of the reason is that the Cold War prevented many emerging economies from being competitive areas to run firms from. Don't get the wrong idea though: The firms are still operated by Americans, Europeans, and Japanese in the board room, but the underlings frequently become the lowest bidder. The flip side is that products do become cheaper on the world stage, but suddenly you have to find new jobs for the people you expect will buy those goods. In the US, this means that the majority of these people have gone into services, and with only limited success. How any person plans to stop the bleeding is a good question, but for Bush it could be a life-or-death political issue as well.

posted by Thomas at 9:33 PM 0 comments

 
Collateral Damage

Al Qaeda is running out of targets to attack. Or at least if the British <em>Sunday Observer has accurate depicted the situation in Iraq. After hanging tight and attack the country's infrastructure, the Islamic terrorist network used a car bomb to damage the United Nations headquarters in Baghdad. Within a week, another car bomb killed over a hundred Shia Muslims in Najaf. Clearly, the attack on the UN envoy was to convince unaligned European and international aid workers that just because they don't wear American military fatigues that they are seen as invading Iraq too. The subsequent incident in Najaf seems to be an attempt to assassinate important social leaders who have appeased or at least worked with the United States. For the Shias, the end of a repressive Sunni regime was completely welcome and perhaps Al Qaeda either sought to punish the Shias at large or simply plunge Iraq into civil war.

The concern is that, as the Observer explains, Iraq is falling apart. L. Paul Bremer is not home, and may even be evacuated with the fear that Al Qaeda hopes to kill him next. After disabling the oil infrastructure and attacking the electricity grid, Al Qaeda, if behind both of the recent automobile bombings, may have a hard time outdoing itself. Nevertheless, the pressure on the Bush Administration grows, as other nations balk and replacing US military personnel. It may be that Bush has to hand over control to the UN and send the boys home. But the White House and Defense Department will play dumb, at least until the next car bomb.
posted by Thomas at 1:57 AM 0 comments

 
Full Disclosure

The Texas Democrats still aren't coming home to the range, while the Ten Commandments have been chipped and shipped from the Alabama Judicial Center and Fox News even has dumped its suit against Al Franken. So even as the liberals celebrate three more points it would seem this week, there's no denying that Iraq and its discontents are still on the majority of people's minds. How so? Well consider this ominous piece from the Washington Post.

After all, the majority of people without backgrounds in international relations claim that every act the US does in the Middle East has something to do with oil. Western Republicans are eager to think about the possibility of getting exclusive rights in Iraq's supposedly huge cahce of black gold underneath the ground. Apparently, men like Vice President Cheney whet their appetite by telling them just how much they would stand to gain if they got on board the war effort. Remember too that oil companies often operate in dangerous or tumultous regimes, and had OPEC stung the US, many of the petroleum firms would be feeling it. But maybe there's something to be said about it not being about oil. Maybe the concern is that the US military is hobbled by another GOP world goal. In effect, the GOP wants to contract the size of the federal bureaucracy.

Don't laugh, however: the US Armed Forces is the biggest bureaucracy of them all. So Cheney's boys at Halliburton provide an exit, a way to expand the role of the military without relying on more civil servants. The only problem is that the article indicates many of KBR's snafus have cost us in a tangible way. As my congressman Waxman points out, even having to pay insurance premiums is padding the Iraq war bill. Of course, the White House is leaking through the State Department news that it would like more Muslim nations to participate militarily under the US flag. Well that's a neat idea, but quite frankly this is an American-made mess and now the Europeans and Arabs are ready to let Bush hang himself. What's worse...no weapons of mass destruction appear to be in the offing and the longer the petroleum infrastructure is dead the less we can assume that Iraq will begin to pay for itself. But Iraq isn't Vietnam. Vietnam was a proxy war against a Soviet-backed regime. Iraq is nothing more than an attempt to use the sword to strike at the heart of the leverage the Arab-Islamic world has developed over the West in terms of natural resources, Israel-Palestinean relations, and the notion of terrorism. So far the oil problem is still acute, the Colin Powell induced "roadmap" has Abu Mazen asking direction, and by all accounts, Islamic fundamentalists are ramping up attacks outside the US.

And all of this brings us back to Halliburton. They can't carry the sword as soldiers and can't deliver the destruction required to qualify as "victory." In other words, unless Bush and the Carlyle Groups of the world assent to privitizing the army itself the problem will still stand. The budget deficit and current problems aren't caused by school lunches or tax cuts or the stock market. It's that no matter how you try to avoid it, the military is the greatest expense that a national government carries and that no amount of "downsizing" will provide you with the outcome you desire. Just as Ronald Reagen learned in the 1980s...you cannot be a libertarian and an imperialist. In fact, the nation state arose from the need for national armies and permanent taxation. Abraham Lincoln invoked the federal income tax to keep the Union Army afloat during the Civil War. The National Militia have been reorganized in the US into the National Guard. And it doesn't matter what ideas you suggest...Bush won't have them. He won't hire more troops, he won't touch the draft, he refuses to extend benefits for retired and incapacitated personnel. In short, we have an army that has too few people to do the job, and an attitude toward taxation as if wars are paid on credit card. No matter how sophisticated the US military becomes in techonology and training, the system still requires a huge amount of money and it has to be something Grover Norquist can't drown in a bathtub.
posted by Thomas at 10:58 PM 0 comments

 
No End in Sight

Tuesday marks the end of the special legislative session called in Texas by Governor Rick Perry. On the one hand, things don't look like they will change much, as the state has a lawsuit in Travis County due on Monday to determine if they can go into New Mexico to retrieve the derelict lawmakers. Even if they don't all indications have Perry giving the Republicans a break until after Labor Day and then calling an unprecedented third special session about congressional redistricting. After all, the Democrats in the Texas Senate fled to Oklahoma at the traditional close of the Session, only to find the governor, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, and Representative Tom DeLay forming a triumvirate of sorts eager to force the Democrats' hand. DeLay has been eager to see the Texas delegation finally be more accpeting of his political proteges (by stacking the districts), Dewhurst by suspending a two-third rule to vote on something in the Texas Senate, and Perry by continuously calling more special sessions. The only problem is that the sessions continually expire after 30 days, and the Texas Legislature only meets for about five months every two years.

The 11 Democrats in the Senate rolled out of town after Dewhurst suspended the minimum vote for a floor vote to Albuquerque, New Mexico. The GOP has tried everything, and now, it has the chance to either compromise or try to break solidarity among the eleven and get enough back to Austin for quorum and a vote. But don't be fooled, the Senate Democrats won't be back right away. Some are even claiming to stick out to at least Christmas and learn how to ski. But the truth is, the day that Clinton pal and New Mexico governor Bill Richardson (who has welcomed them to New Mexico), the Senators, and Willie Nelson have circled is September 4th.

For on that day, the television trucks descend on sleepy Albuquerque for the first "official" Presidential Debate for the Democratic Party. The event is being organized by Richardson and the Hispanic Caucus. You can imagine that all of the Democratic candidates will at least visit with the self-exiled lawmakers and that when the cameras turn on at Popejoy Hall at the University of New Mexico, one of the candidates will direct the unblinking eye to their presence. This is precisely what Richardson wants and unless the judge in Laredo rules that the Texas Rangers can then swoop in and arrest them, expect the candidates to get on the horn and claim how these "patriots" need your money to keep up the good fight. Dewhurst already wants a break before the next session is called, and Perry is losing political capital by being stiffed. The only person eager to use the smashdown tactics is DeLay who has been ass-mastered this round by Richardson. See you in the Land of Enchantment with the escort, Tom.
posted by Thomas at 11:27 PM 0 comments

 
No Spin Zone

Here I thought it was going to be a pretty boring day with the best news that President Bush once again is trying to gain that elusive Jewish vote by appointing Daniel Pipes to a government commission. I'll get to that in a minute, but first I have to apologize for not at least linking to an update about the Ten Commandments row in Alabama. Here's the link. It is safe to say that Roy Moore might be done in the Alabama judiciary. The folks in Alabama rarely seem to get it, but here's the fact I must explain. The Ten Commandments are not the basis of US Law. English Law and before that, fedual law has minimal links to the Ten Commandments or even the Code of Hammurabi. Of course, given the majority of religious persons in the US are either Jewish or Christian, it's fair to say the Decalouge is the basis of our morality. But as anyone will tell you the First Commandemnt (you shall have no other God but me) and the First Amendment (Congress shall make no law) are hardly complimentary ideas.

But the funnier story has to be Fox News Channel's unfortunate surprise at the federal courthouse in Lower Manhattan. If the lawyers had to pay for a cab ride, Rupert ought to reimburse them because the story on this is too unbelievable. Basically, Al Franken has gotten under Bill O'Reilly's skin several times (last of which was at the LA Times Festival of Books) for being anything but "Fair and Balanced." Unhappy that Fox was attempting to get many Republican pundits to make outrageous claims of unbias, Franken wrote his most recent work "Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them: A Fair and Balanced Look at the Right" to slam the Ann Coulter crowd of attack dogs. Fox, who owns a trademark on the phrase "Fair and Balanced", attempted to get an injunction on the title, Penguin the publisher released the book early to avoid having to draft a new cover. It turns out to not matter very much.

That's right, when the judge says this is an "easy case" to decide that code to the highly paid lawyers that basically you shouldn't have even brought this motion.


Now on to the whole thing with Daniel Pipes. In case you don't know, Pipes is the fellow who started "Campus Watch" to report on the liberal bias inherent at US university and the implicit "anti-Zion" message being spewed forth. President Bush decided to add Pipes to the US Institute of Peace. This is a valentine to the Paul Wolfowitzs of the world to let them know that in Bush and Karl Rove's eyes, conservative Jews should come in the from cold and know that when people like Trent Lott call them "Christkillers" it's just out of habit. No seriously, Pipes' idea of unAmerican thought at univerisities is pretty ridiculous because nearly a quarter to as many as half of all American academics are Jews. Some of them, like Noam Chomsky, are going to lash out at the Israeli Government verbally. However, the majority of pro-Palestinean fever on campuses I have been to is largely because other underrepresented groups tend to equate the Israel-Palestine conflict as just another front of the developed world's war on the developing world. And sure, when you then take what some professors might say against the United States from time to time and equate that with this Third World partisanship it appears that the whole academic system has gone to rot and that every university student, facutly member, and employee is better dead than red.

What' even more depressing is that the Council of American-Islamic Relations is screaming at this recess appointment. The poor people at CAIR have been forced to act as the main TV presence for America's 2 million Muslims at a time when Roy Moore, Pipes, and Bill O'Reilly are purporting that all Muslims secretly want to be and are martyr's committing jihad for their faith. Of course, that's true, because "martyr" and "jihad" doesn't mean the same thing to Allah. Instead, Muslims believe they must not be swayed from their convictions and struggle to achieve them. That's right folks, "jihad" means "struggle" in Arabic, not "blowing yourself up on a bus". When you consider the religious zeal of fringe Jewish and Christian groups, if you don't get a little worried about mixed messages, you ought to realize that ol John Ashcroft is a Pentacostalist.

posted by Thomas at 4:45 PM 0 comments

 
Not Quite Midnight in Montgomery

Somehow, religious matters seem to outstrip structural ones. Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore even managed to make it on the "The Early Show" Wednesday to decry the Supreme Court's decision not to stop the removal of religious display from the Alabama Judicial Building. This didn't stop an army of protesters from showing up all day and even some staying inside after closing time. Thankfully, most of the WHITE protestors did get the famous Montgomery "dog treatment", but they still acted up a storm. Caught in the middle is State Attorney General Bill Pryor who is on Bush's list for a federal judgeship. While it's boundless fun to watch the chaos, it is a shame that the governor Riley finds himself upstaged on a much more pressing issue. Nevertheless, at midnight tonight the penalties will ensue, so we will have an update for you then.
posted by Thomas at 5:13 PM 0 comments

 
A Glimpse into the Future?

When two bombings occur on the same day, what do you generally assume? An afternoon attack in Baghdad is followed by a nightime explosion in Jerusalem. Obviously, resistance in Iraq is emboldened and the usual suspects are stepping up their efforts against Israel. Some will espouse that a sort of conspiracy exists between all Muslim terrorism and resistance, thereby making it seemed planned that whoever committed the Iraq assault on the UN realized there would be a later event in Jerusalem. However, it seems more likely that Hamas or similar organizations responded quickly because they feel that more pressure has to be put via the United States now. If Iraq gets much worse, the Palestineans get put on the back burner again.

Nevertheless, the best question to ask about the killer cement truck will be who did this? The logic answer seems to be the naughty Sunni population in Iraq hoping to engage the US in a war of attrition. CNN asked Peter Bergen what his thoughts were though, and he replied it was likely Saudi men who were flocking to die as martyrs for Islam in Iraq. The whole car bomb bit sounds a little Al Qaeda. The Embassy Bombings in 1998 were car bombs, as were attacks in Tunisia and the bombings in Indonesia by Jeemah Islamyiah. It should be also noted that this sort of attack could be a trial run.

President Bush is going to attend the Asian Pacific Economic Community Summit in Thailand in October. The dates nearly intersect with the bombing of a Bali night club last year. There seems to be little doubt that the Secret Service has that date circled and will do everything it can to protect the President. But maybe, just maybe, the cement trucks will have to wait.
posted by Thomas at 11:37 PM 0 comments

 
We Won't Call it a Crisis Just Yet

Sadly, it took a decade of energy woes and economic doldrums to make America serious about conservation. It's already a fact that the US energy grid is breaking down. Millions of New Yorkers need no reminder how everything fell apart last Thursday. Suddenly, politicians like Spencer Abraham of the Energy Department and members of Congress' energy committees are superstars. We want to know everything about how they are going to fix this. Even President Bush is getting close to promising something for his 2004 presidential bid. After all, didn't you see the hours of coverage of people wandering through the dark streets of Gotham?

The next sign of energy trouble, try Phoenix, Arizona. There aren't any "rolling gas blackouts" here because of deregulation or other assorted bogeymen. A failed pipeline that connects Tucson, Arizona to El Paso, Texas had a rupture on July 30th, and pressure on the market has been building ever since. The pipeline was shut down on the 8th of August, causing a snap in the supply and raising prices. As customer fear the possibility there will not be enough gasoline, the problem snowballs. Anyone alive in the 1970s seemingly can think of only one time they have felt this way before. The ripple effect now has made California's gasoline prices rise, too. And worst of all, there's no timetable when the gas will start flowing again. KinderMorgan has only promised Arizona when it will next test the pipeline for repairs done.

Though Kinder Morgan likely wanted no part of this shutdown, there are now discussions afoot to reform Arizona's gasoline supply system. It looks like though the Bush Administration will at least go to bat for the eponymous Richard Kinder who is decidely pro-Republican and is based in the
GOP's new homeland state of Texas.

And what about Mr. Abraham's previous comments? He appeared on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday and didn't even mention the crisis in Arizona. He instead chose to talk about how the administration has been trying for years to get the energy grids back on track (by charging consumers a premium to fix the grid) and how it's all Congress' fault. Hopefully Bush finds a more qualified man than Abraham to help him stump in energy-sensitive states like Arizona, or else the combination of new state residents, unemployment, energy concerns and the like may push The Grand Canyon state from "Red" to "Blue" in '04.
posted by Thomas at 11:46 PM 0 comments

 
Give to Caesar What is Caesar's

Just when you thought all the cameras were turned on California's recall, the Washington Post uncovers the plight of Southern Baptist Alabama Governor Bob Riley. Gov. Riley was faced with a giant $675 million deficit. He cut spending, but still found the need to quadruple taxes just to break even in accordance with the state's balanced budget requirement. He then decided it was time for a change in how the state raised, managed, and spent revenue. But in Alabama, the tax code is part of the state constitution and requires a referendum to reform it, instead of just legislative action. Riley now has until September 9th to convince voters this change is good for them.

Conservative tax policy guru Grover Norquist is already promising to sic the dogs on Riley, a Republican no less, for equating the GOP with tax increases. Riley responds that as a Christian he finds inspiration in the Bible to do what is he is doing. Norquist will likely gag, but for years, many Democrats turned Republican in the South because they found their socially conservative views to be partnered with the fiscally conservative ideology favored by Republicans in the West, Midwest, and Northeast. Now this is called into question if Nose-twist and the supply-side goons undermine Riley.

And what about God? Turns out the national Christian Coalition gives the Governor an "Amen" while the state chapter is busily opposing it as they try to keep the Ten Commandments up in the Alabama Judical Building. As they gleefully hope that the US Supreme Court will uphold their rights, there's the potential that the federal judge sitting in Montgomery, Myron Thompson, will impose daily fines for not removing the structure. Let's see Grover defend the state wasting thousands of dollars a day to thumb his nose at a federal judge and then call Riley fiscally irresponsible. Wait, he might delegate that responsibility to weekend rally speaker, Alan Keyes.

So while John Giles of the CCA appears to be Gov. Riley's biggest adversary, the Post reports it happens to be blacks, who find just about anything a Republican man says to be untrustworthy. The endorsement of the Alabama Democratic Party is helping to stem this, but it appears the measure is going down in flames, with over fifty percent opposed. So with this most radical of solutions to the nearly nationwide problems with budget deficits among states, why isn't Riley on Fox News Sunday or Meet the Press with Timmy Russert? Do you really think the national political establishments want to turn the deficits into an academic discussion as Riley has done, or keep it more reactionary?

The Economist has shown particular interest in illustrating Alabama's recent constitutional struggles. They went so far as to discuss the failings of the 1901 constitution over one year ago. They also have gone so far as to chronicle the recent shenanigans with characteristic British wit. When Bagehot's Boys beat the American press to a story that's usually a bad sign. Heck, Riley hasn't even been on C-SPAN yet. Of course, national media attention will soon be focused on Alabama. The USC Trojans are coming to Auburn courtesy of CBS. Hopefully, Dan Rather at least mentions this story on the Evening News the week prior. At least that would be giving God what is God's.


posted by Thomas at 7:18 PM 0 comments

 
The Disappearing Mr. Voinovich

In the end, Senator George Voinovich of Ohio decided he wanted a tax cut after all. It's a peculiar thing when a politician of the president's own party opposes him. But is it even more peculiar to have it be that the pols switches horses? Consider Voinovich who went on many a TV show complaining about George Bush's incessant desire for tax cuts which he thought would "place that jacket on the backs of our children and our grandchildren". What's more interesting though...is that other "deficit hawks", a term you would think Republicans would like, supported the Ohio senator and gave Minority Leader Tom Daschle a glimmer of hope that Dick Cheney wouldn't get to cast the tiebreaking vote. As a result, Bush went on a cross-country journey to New Mexico, Nebraksa, and Indiana. The Center from Growth blasted Voinovich in ads around the Columbus area..(largely because they were too cheap to televise them in Cleveland and Cincinnati). Nevertheless, the question remains what sort of deal was cut for Voinovich's vote. It's not obvoius just yet, but it can't be too far in coming.
posted by Thomas at 11:13 AM 0 comments

 
Capital Punishment

Monday morning began with me stumbling through the predawn darkness approaching the Super Shuttle. I made it to the Minneapolis airport on time. I marched toward the skyway only to watch my suitcase flop down the escalator once I thought it had been propped safely. As I went down to retrieve it, it turned out that eventually it had caught itself and followed me to the second floor. After this of course, I got to see the morning rush hour at the security checkpoint. It was the heaviest traffic I had seen, but it was over very quickly and I found myself hungry for food and with a Bank of America ATM nowhere in sight. As a result, I bought a few books and starting reading them. One was terrible “The Floating Brothel”. The other, David Brock’s memoir, was heady stuff.
Landing at National Airport was easy enough but I managed to get lost in Colonial Alexandria for my hotel. The weight of it was killer and I almost pulled out my back. Luckily, the Morrison House proved to be a very nice place. Maybe I should have pulled back and stayed with the Greaney’s in Rockville, but that was further away than Alexandria.
I had reassured myself that the House was a few blocks from the King Street Metro Station. I had forgotten of course the exact address so I spend nearly an hour and a half dragging my huge and heavy suitcase through the scenic wilds of colonial Alexandria. However, the staff at the House was very nice and friendly. I marched back to the station and proceeded to head north into Foggy Bottom. At first I was feeling quite lonely and sad because of the great time I had in Minneapolis. However, I made it to George Washington University and looked around. It was not what you would be expecting, but despite this it was worth it I thought to relocate.
When that concluded, I went to the student union at GWU to look around. Also, very nice. By the time I had finished exploring, it was time for “Crossfire!” For those of you who have never seen “Crossfire!” it’s CNN’s longest running debate show. The current cabal of pundits are liberals Paul Begala and James Carville and Tucker Carlson and Bob Novak for the conservatives. Novak and Carville are the “senior talent” and both hate each other so I was impressed to see them both stomaching each other for a whole hour. To top it off, the guest was James Inhofe [R] of Oklahoma. He spent a whole twenty minutes talking to us in the audience before the program started. I didn’t bother to tell him that he’s going to have a hell of a time explaining why Don Rumsfeld cancelled the Crusader missile program that was being manufactured in Oklahoma. Overall it was highly entertaining, and when I was done I was feeling a bit rueful. I had dinner at Kinkead’s a famous fish house about a block away and then hit the Metro back to Alexandria.
I ordered the room service breakfast (which is pretty reasonable) $5 for eggs, hash brown and toast. The service charge though makes it more expensive of course, but remember, I paid $7 for breakfast at a Dallas-Ft. Worth McDonalds. I fell asleep again and proceeded to head north into Maryland…to a place called Friendship Heights. I was supposed to meet Great Aunt Winnie and her daughter Margaret at the Cheesecake Factory. Sure enough, it all went according to plan. I arrived a little late, had a great meal with Winnie and Margaret and her youngest son Luke. Of course, I almost got called “Tony” a few times but Winnie brought me a photo album of my ancestors. She seemed to think I wasn’t interested but I was actually quite fascinated. This was the first chance I had seen many of the people who were my forbears. Winnie also mentioned that her son, Bill Jr., worked as a lawyer. Then when I told her a friend of mine went to Harvard Law, she said “yeah that is where Billy went”. Then it came out that Bill worked at Covington and Burling on Pennsylvania Avenue. A true opportunist would have thought “Man I could have been a legacy at Harvard”…but instead…I was just excited to get his number and call him next week.
The escalator was broken at the Metro Station so I had to descend by foot a two story staircase to the station. From there, I rode to Tenleytown to investigate American University. This had to have been the most disappointing part of my trip. It took a good twenty minutes to walk to the law school because only American students can ride the shuttle from the Metro station to the school. As a result I walked along Nebraska Avenue and then turned north on Massachusetts. Quite by accident I passed by the Japanese Embassy, but it was closed to the public. The Swedish embassy was open, but I felt as if I needed to get to American as soon as possible.
I went through the entire building of the WCL and I was more or less unimpressed. It was not that building didn’t seem like a good law school. Instead it appeared to be on par with what I would get in Loyola and not much else. On the surface I would not be unhappy with that. However, I interviewed the desk manager ( a current student) about living situations.
He seemed to indicate most people lived on their own and had help from their parents. Given the neighborhood that American is in, it seemed hard to think this was all going to work. It seemed people were paying too much for rent and living around campus was a death wish. For all that I saw, it seemed pointless to relocate for American. I had to walk back all the way to the Metro Station and took the ride into the Metro Center stop to visit the Old Post Office. Much to my surprise, the entire place had become nothing more than a food court. Ten years ago I had been ecstatic to play mini golf and shop and eat food. Now instead there was not much. I walked out ready to leave when I asked two black security guards manning the metal detector what I should do for the 5 to 6 hour before dinner. The one guard, Michael Newby, ended up being so interested (or bored) that we began to discuss things for an hour and a half. I was really happy to talk to him, largely because of the insight he gave me. The security job was a temporary position wherein he had left the Navy as an engineer to pursue a civilian job. Security jobs were plentiful in DC these days. His ultimate goal was to gain clearance at the Pentagon to do a position there. Michael was very worried about America, saying that Bush was a new Caesar and that the whole country was in danger. He was also really interested in my opinions on Iraq. I told him that there was not much of a reason for it, and that I never would vote for a war I didn’t want to participate in. Finally we exchanged emails…and I headed off to this Brazilian steak place on 7th Street near the MCI Center.

posted by Thomas at 9:34 PM 0 comments

 
Curiously, the restaurant went out of business so instead I went to a place called Fado, and Irish pub. I had corned beef n’ cabbage and met a woman named Sandra Smith. She was with another guy, and relax, she was married. Nevertheless, the bar was a total experience with the interior made to look like a real Irish country pub down to fake wells in he dining rooms. I ate at the bar and listened to trivia night and when it was over I retired back to Alexandria, which was beginning to be a real drag.
I woke up late and failed to make my tour for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing. I did make it to Capitol Hill in time to have Sarah Cockerhill of Dave Dreier’s office give me a staff-assisted tour. The tours at the Capitol have been eviscerated and you see barely anything. However, since Sarah only had to guide me, it was nice to get special treatment. In addition, I got to see Dreier’s office which is right next to Denny Hastert’s (the Speaker of the House). Sarah recommended Cosi for lunch and I dutifully obeyed.
Once I finished lunch, I sauntered over to the Supreme Court. Although it is the stuff of myth, the room looks like any federal appeals court. I got the standard tour and then walked downstairs. I ran into an intern from the University of Utah named Laurie. We had lots of good jabs at Mormons (since she was a Presbyterian) and when I said, where do you recommend for dinner? She said “go a couple blocks north to this place called the Monocle. It’s the old hang out for Capitol Hill types.”
Of course, at this time it was only 3pm so I elected to visit the Smithsonain’s American History museum. I spent a while looking at the Japanese internment exhibit, and the one on West Point. From there I poked my head around at the New Mexico exhibit and the like. I walked around the Mall to the Lincoln Memorial and then back to the Metro headed for Union Station. I was worried I would stick out like a sore thumb since I wasn’t wearing a suit, although the Monocle owner assured me I was in dress code. The food was good, not great, but the best part had to be looking across the room and seeing Russ Feingold [D] having yuks with his female staffers. Did I introduce myself to him? But of course not. I left him alone, just as he would have wanted.
I elected that night to take the bus home from the King Street Metro. I waited almost twenty minutes and overheard a conversation between a young man and an older woman. He was talking about his awful life in Hawaii. Namely he said “once you live there for three month you find there is nothing to do there.” I boarded the bus without talking to him, but at least I knew he was telling the truth.
I got up too late to get to the “constituent breakfast” for Dianne Feinstein. It was quite a shock however to find out that it was not an intimate affair at all but about 70 people who sit in a conference room eating bagels. The Q and A session had her repudiate the war on Iraq and say that she had no idea why California gas prices are so high. I nice perk was tickets to see the Congress in session, which I will hope to use later. Also, I was happy to see that Feinstein was eager to close the SUV loophole which was essentially something I thought was long over do. Nevertheless, I left the Hart Senate building sad to be leaving DC since I realize I really enjoyed myself.

posted by Thomas at 12:58 PM 0 comments

 
Sunday was my chance to saunter off and explore the law school and St. Paul. George offered to show me the state capital via the reliable Twin Cities bus system. This would be a great idea in practice save for the fact that it had gotten colder as the week had gone on and now it was several degrees below zero Fahrenheit. George had to be convinced to take a photo in a snowdrift in a park overlooking the Mississippi river. From there, we were both freezing our asses off, so we infiltrated the skyways surrounding the financial district. George suggested we visit the Capitol and then get some coffee.
This was a great idea, but this also meant braving the elements. It was bitterly cold, and after taking a photo op south of the hill, we marched back into safety. Coffee consumed, we took the bus to the St. Paul Cathedral only to find out that we would have to wait until after Mass to tour the premises. We decided to cut our losses and return to Seven Corners, the neighborhood Daria lives in.
Upon arriving there, we learned that my host was sick and couldn’t eat solid food with George and I. The plan for Persian food was off, so instead we were to go downstairs and get food to go. The restaurant of choice, Sergeant Preston’s, was closed so after much deliberation, George and I got Indian food and brought it back to the unit. Once we finished dinner, I began to pack and prepare for the next stop.

posted by Thomas at 10:16 PM 0 comments

 
Dateline Minneapolis

“Ladies and gentlemen, we have been informed that the runways are closed here at Logan.” My heart sank as I watched the de-icing teams spray the plane. At this moment I thought I would be stuck for another night in Boston, and instead, I escaped. The plane, after an almost two hour delay, departed for Chicago, from which I caught the next flight to Minneapolis. Arriving in Minnesota, I realized that the taste of winter weather I enjoyed in Boston had become a full-course meal. Snow was piled onto the streets, and the temperatures were a chilly 25F. I had wondered what I had got myself into.
My Super Shuttle driver, one of countless Ethiopian immigrants to the Twin Cities I conjectured had the hardest time finding Daria’s place. The only problem with this is that it was only a few steps away from the West Bank of the University of Minnesota campus. I was impressed however, to see very nice student housing in an otherwise decent neighborhood. I was also very excited to see the law school across the street. However, I didn’t appreciate fully the temperature drop.
For the next morning, Daria asked his roommate, the 28 year old computer science grad student from Hungary, George to show me around while he was at class. Daria, being a med student, doesn’t exactly lack for something to do. The arctic landscape that passes for the University of Minnesota proved intriguing nonetheless. The student union had been recently redone, and the bookstore made the tony interior of the Duke union look even less attractive. The snow crunched under my feet as George showed me the “horseshoe”, the Armory, the Rec Center, and the McNamara Alumni Gateway. While the campus was nice, I was severely unprepared to handle the frigid temperatures. We could only walk a few yards without ducking into a building to take advantage of the free heating.
George left me at the law school to look around, which I did. Though it wasn’t quite as frilly Duke’s interiors, the school still looked like an excellent place if one could manage the snow. As I coursed through the huge law library, Daria called to say that he was home and I needed to let him into his building. At this point I really couldn’t see myself at Mondale Hall.
Later that night however, Daria invited a cabal of his friends to dinner and drinks at two separate locations of course. While Daria was using the opportunity to do reconnaissance on the opposite sex, I had the chance to meet his friends and discuss how they felt about things. I met Molly, who was going to do a summer job in Miami. I met Manish, the homosexual Indian who had graduated from UCLA a year before Daria and I. There was Shaquita, the sassy and part-black driver and Shawna, a platonic pal. I ordered walleye from the menu and Molly was shocked to hear this was the first time that Thomas had eaten the fish. She didn’t quite realize I was from Los Angeles and shortly after this, as we enjoyed the heat and warmth of the Loring Pasta Company, did I get needled about California. Of Daria’s ten friends, each had at least a partial desire to work in the Golden State. To me, this was very telling. I had two weeks before I could return to California, for good, if I chose. Nevertheless, the people were extremely friendly and all good-natured.
Then came Chino Latino. It started out as a harmless trip to one of Uptown’s trendiest locales. It ended with several people sitting upstairs at the bar staring down at the med schools students gyrating for the chance to do “body shots”. There was moaning, shouting, undulating…well…I suppose I can’t really divulge all that. Shaquita drove the three of us home to the Grand Marc. We all fell asleep pretty quickly, with George already being asleep.
Saturday began with a trip to the Mall of America, Minnesota greatest sucking sound. Daria was recovering for a hangover, so he decided we should go late in the afternoon, catch a movie, and eat dinner at the Mall. George offered to show me into Downtown Minneapolis with its skyways and other allures. However, the temperature had dropped to below freezing and snow blanketed the banks of the Mississippi. I reluctantly decided not to go and subject my neck and face to the punishment. With my new beanie and gloves, only the exposed part of my head found the climate unfriendly. I decided instead to give Darrah, my friend at Berkeley’s school of Optometry, a call while watching the Kentucky-Florida basketball game on television.
Soon enough it was time to traipse through the snow to the bus stop outside the Grand Marc. From there, we connected to another bus at the downtown Nicollet Mall and took the Express to the Mall. All things considered, it was pretty painless. Shivering in the almost sub-zero air was not that pleasurable, to be sure. The Mall surprised me too. It was not that upscale, despite having a theme park inside among other things. It had the feel of an outlet mall in very posh surrounding. Daria led us to a food court with his favorite place for food. It was supposed to be Japanese, but I got the feeling that Jenn would object to it having that title even more than she objected to Tsunami. I was still hungry after the gyoza and shrimp so I ate a hot dog during the movie.
Daria had sought to see this film called “Old School” in which case the breakup of Luke Wilson’s marriage (on a premise sort of like “Sliding Doors”) causes him to move into a house near the fictional Harrison University in New York. Naturally this was the same movie that bribed UCLA big money to film during class and take large portions of the campus hostage with huge sets. There had even been a time during shooting that I had passed Vince Vaughn on the quad at UCLA playing Frisbee in between takes.
The film turned out to be a great improvement, and the wait for the bus home was pretty short. We had to enjoy a great scenic tour of the airport, the VA hospital and Fort Snelling. Around 10:30pm, all of us staggered back to the apartment. I fell asleep not sure who had won the UCLA-Washington basketball game. It turns out the Bruins had won, and consequently qualified for the 8th seed in the PAC-10 tournament next week. The students at Pauley responded by storming the court. I could only laugh.

posted by Thomas at 9:42 PM 0 comments

 
Dateline: North Carolina


Just two days ago as my plane touched down at the Raleigh-Durham International Airport I had no idea what the quintessential North Carolina experience is. I now learn that it can be summed up in a very real and tangible occurrence, potholes. You see, North Carolina has, according to their board of tourism, the most miles of paved road of any state in the Union. If this is true, it must be contending for most potholes as well. So while this jarring sensation reminds from time to time about the suddenly svelte looking roads of California, it’s probably one of the few things that make the place feel southern.
Sure, there are great wooded patches and the occasional Bojangles restaurant. However, in the Triangle the African American population isn’t as downtrodden, jobs are remarkably based around technology, not everyone’s brother is in the armed forces and I have yet to see a trailer park. Campbell, my friend from many a year suggested on Monday we tour the local area and then on Tuesday we would check out the campus as we had class that day.
Monday began with a beautiful tour of the airport. You figure out really quickly where you are…after all…there are trees everywhere. Also, no mountains of any real size are visible, which doesn’t seem right after living in California. Regardless, Campbell and I set off to see the biggest tourist attraction in the entire Durham County. It is called Bennett Place and it looks like a 19th century log cabin in a big, muddy field with a visitor center. Of course, I know you have never heard of this place, but it’s important because after Robert E. Lee’s Army of Northern Virginia surrendered, other Rebel forces still were giving chase to the Union army. Of these was the Army of Tennessee which had brought pitched battles into North Carolina for the only time in the Civil war. Bennett Place just happened to be the place that Confederate commander Joe Johnston and William T. Sherman met and ended the civil war. After the Army of the Tennessee surrendered to Grant, this effectively ended pitched fighting. And yet, when Campbell and I rolled into the site…we were the only people there. It was ominously empty, and it’s only a few miles down the road from Duke University.
Still curious about historical things we drove northeast of town to Stagville, a resurrected plantation house that at one time was the largest plantation in all of North Carolina. It was so large that it covered four counties and employed 9,000 slaves at its height. When Campbell and I arrived we saw a white farmhouse that looked unimpressive. The tour guide, who also had seen no one all day, told us that in the 18th century all the wooded pasture would have been cleared and the house would have been the only thing higher than a row of cotton for miles around. The house itself is a minor attraction: a Thomas Day couch and period design. However, the tour guide then offered to have us accompany him and see the slave cabin and barn. Campbell and I hoped back in the car and drove to the slave cabins, which were huge and state of the art for 1860. There were several of them, and the light filtering through the Carolina pines gave things a particularly menacing quality. The barn was also a marvel, at the size of 130 feet long. It purpose was largely to house the army of mules requires for the more taxing labor. Intimidating to me was that this was not a place of splendor. This was not Baton Rogue, Louisiana or Charleston, South Carolina.
We decided to end the evening by seeing “Gods and Generals”. I warned Campbell the film would be four hours. He was undeterred and we went in. Of course the combination of jet lag and insomnia meant I fell asleep during Bull Run and woke up around the start of Fredericksburg. I managed to catch the cameos by Ted Turner and Bob Byrd and enjoy the battle cinematography. I noticed all the cute touches from the Zouave units traipsing in the background to Stonewall Jackson’s love of lemonade. Nevertheless, the dialogue is painful and the DVD is supposedly longer. Assuming “Full Measure” the last of the Shaara family trilogy, is this long the three movies will run as far as Ken Burns’ documentary.
In the middle of the night, Campbell got a phone call informing him his grandfather passed away. He immediately made plans to depart on Wednesday, so I had to move up the date to my initial run through Boston by a day. I narrowly escaped paying a king’s ransom, but Campbell had the more unappetizing itinerary. He would have to connect twice, once in Chicago, once in Tokyo and arrive in Taipei only to spend 36 hours for the funeral and then fly back to school. I’m not flying that many hours on all my flights combined.
Tuesday began late as I forgot that Campbell no longer had his bioethics presentation to deal with so we both leisurely awoke and prepared for the rest of the day. After lunch, we set off to the Duke campus. I got a tour from Mr. Chiang known as the “functional tour”. I saw the lockers, the Blue Lounge, the library…the admissions office….the Loggia…the….okay so I went to the main undergraduate campus for the afternoon and then came back to the law school before they locked the doors for a presentation.
The Duke campus itself is rather enjoyable to hike around. The centerpiece of the campus is a stone-brick Methodist chapel that reminded me of the Niewe Kerk in Amsterdam. Of course, I understand completely if you have no idea what the Niewe Kerk is but my advice is to see it when you do visit Amsterdam. I also viewed the quadrangle of the Duke campus, which is also stone-brick. The sororities and fraternities are on the west side of the quad while the liberal arts departments are on the east side. The north side is the chapel and to the south is the Garden. I had been told there was an Asian arboretum there. I was severely disappointed to learn that in North Carolina this means a few native plants scattered around some Eastern architecture in the Carolina pine forest. I mean, I doubt they were all Okinawan pines here…but…I digress.
The student union was very attractive, laid out with a country club atmosphere and the main library was also impressive. Furthermore, the paper which sold the most on campus? The News Observer perhaps? The Herald Sun? Nope. The New York Times. And as I walked around campus it became even more clear that the main campus at least was a playground of Tri Staters and other non-Suddern folk who either like the weather, the basketball team, the chapel, or the fact that on campus they fill in those naughty potholes.
I went back to the library only to fall asleep reading the US News. I awoke and went to the presentation called “Looking Like the Enemy: The Japanese American Internment Cases in Perspective”. The speakers were Dr. Peter Irons, who was responsible for overturning the Korematsu case, the darkest chapter of Asian-American history, and Eric Muller, a law professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Both of them didn’t focus on the same tired bit but instead the combination of social circumstance and legal precedent that utterly rocked constitutional law to this very day. What impressed me the most was that Irons brought up Ex Parte Milligan which more or less prevents the federal government from trying terrorists in a secret military tribunal if the charges are not military in nature. This ruling has been on the books since 1866, and yet if Zacarias Moussaoui is not allowed to have his civilian trial continue it will be tested and our notion of due process could be destroyed. This, and the free wine and hors d’ oeuvres after the presentation made me realize all my kvetching about Durham was premature.
So even though I only ended with a two-day tour of the greater metropolitan Triangle, I realized I had seen all I need to see. I had felt the consistency of holes in the road. I had seen the ravages of time consume the odes to the past. I hadn’t seen a basketball game or visited the Research Triangle Park. I never even went into Raleigh. Did I have to, however, as I had already seen the ugly past of slavery and tobacco being replaced brick by brick by Mike Kryzewski, a first rate medical campus, and other development. All this and more to ponder as I head north to Boston only to route myself towards Minneapolis, Minnesota. One down, six to go.

posted by Thomas at 10:17 PM 0 comments

 
Oil on Margin
Ever since the blackouts rolled through California in 2000, talk of energy crises have become almost de rigeur. Oil and natural gas prices in particular have been volatile. So to hear that Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham was summoned to the Capitol today comes as little if no surprise. Abraham refused to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as an attempt to drives prices down. His motivation is subject to a high amount of interpretation.
Some have suggested, as does CNN, that President Bush will wait until war breaks out to release the SPR and cause a dramatic drop in spot market prices. Nevertheless, Abraham seemed convinced that the situation in Venezuela was resolving itself and that OPEC might seek to cut production if the SPR was tapped. While it’s an interesting concept, it would also cause a margin crash that would not far well for energy firms.
There is no doubt of course that war speculation has caused oil prices to rise, but the ultimate question will be just how comfortable will the US government be in allowing energy prices to stay high. Oil exporters like the currently high prices to protect unbalanced economies. Oil consumers like cheap products. However, the consumers in the US tend to be individuals, in the form of car owners. Producers in the US tend to be corporations who really would favor demand to meet supply. At this point, petroleum companies apparently have reason to be happy, but the amount of oil in reserve is growing. Could it be then that the firms just hope to use international problems to hide other concerns? Stay tuned.

posted by Thomas at 11:53 PM 0 comments

 

The Last Hajj

It appears that “Unpaid” has to apologize. You see, it seemed for the longest time that military maneuvers in Iraq had much more to do with Israeli expansionism under the Sharon regime than with “weapons of mass destruction”. But alas, this turns out to be at least partially not the case. A shocking NY Times article on Friday reveals that Saudi Arabia is very eager to have the US Army leave…once Iraq is no longer the home of Saddam Hussein. Sound confusing?
The House of Saud wants to have its cake and eat it too. The Saudi royal family is eager to have the US vacate its positions in the Kingdom, but it does not want them to leave until Saudi hegemony in the Arab world is assured. Iraq is the only nation (Iran too for that matter) that could challenge the royals for their righteous place in the Gulf. In a sense, Israeli hawks are likely to enjoy the idea of Iraq being eliminated as well, but the current system of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Iran being pitted against each other is attractive. With Iraq mollified, Iran could focus more on Hezbollah while the Saudis too could focus more on internal measures.
However, there is reason to think that an Iraqi invasion is exactly what the nefarious Al-Qaeda types want. As stated before, Saudi oil will become crucial during the period of reorganization after the invasion is successful. But furthermore, the use and extension of troops into the Fertile Crescent would stretch US forces to the limit. Bin Laden might simply order a coup in the Kingdom once American troops are busy fighting house to house in Baghdad. This would force Central Command to divert an attack south and into Saudi Arabia. Of course, this is exactly what bin Laden would dream of doing. Defend Islam’s holy ground from crusaders who would attempt to wipe him out. He would assume that act of Gentile troops marching into Mecca would incite the Arab world to expel the West once and for all. Militarily of course, the US would still likely complete the job and destroy Islamism once and for all.
But before one gets too excited about this option, remember that the world’s energy rubric is awfully dependant on these countries that would likely protest. Even though the US would win the battle, it could find itself in a permanent energy crisis with more moderate Arab countries refusing to pump oil out of the ground. Hypothetically of course, the current regimes in nations like Kuwait or Qatar would be forced to continue selling oil on the world market. Nevertheless, these regimes, if the Americans invade Saudi Arabia, might be overthrown and with most of the Arab’s world heaving masses not enjoying the benefit of petrodollars….
Also intriguing is that Al Qaeda continues to make chatter to believe that the target of their activities is somewhere in the United States. Yet it would appear that the next wave of attack is supposed to begin with “assassinations” which considering how cephalized succession lines are in the US seems a little overwrought. However, this could also apply to the royal family in Saudi Arabia and could be exactly how bin Laden seeks to lie with the truth. With the FBI and CIA hunting shadows, it would allow the murder of the princes to occur and set the stage for Al Qaeda’s endgame, and the last Hajj.

posted by Thomas at 2:57 AM 0 comments

 
Reagan’s Revenge


It turns out that “Unpaid” is being vindicated from all comers, and the most recent of this was Khidir Hamza, the original head of Iraq’s nuclear programme. Hamza appeared Friday on CNN’s Crossfire and stated blithely that Iraq began to develop WMD with the purpose of counterbalancing Israel’s nukes in the late 70’s. He also confirmed that a preemptive Israeli attack on an Iraqi facility in 1986 hardened Saddam’s stance. He supported an American military invasion. He said that Hussein wanted merely one bomb to use as an ultimate deterrent. All of this appeared to be in line with conventional Bush administration thinking.
What was shocking though, is what else Hamza said. He proceeded to say that the French were totally willing to help Iraq with the program all throughout the 80s in exchange for economic back-scratching. He also said that the whole point of building a nuclear weapon was to gain more leverage in a future negotiation. In other words, Hussein recognized that he would get a far better shake if he had a bomb of his own.
After seeing the response to nations like Pakistan and North Korea, it turns out that Hussein was marvelously prescient. Nevertheless, as an authoritarian dictator Hussein could save himself if only he patterned himself after someone like Pervez Musharraf. If Hussein had soft pedaled the Israelis instead of arming, he wouldn’t have his problem all together. He would get to survive as Hosni Mubarak and Anwar Sadat did for so many years. But for all the remorse Hussein might feel about the wrong course of action, President Bush might want to point the finger at the nonagenarian Ronald Reagan for not brokering an Iraq/Israeli nuclear resolution in the 80s when both countries were US allies.

posted by Thomas at 2:01 AM 0 comments

 
Black History Month Becomes History?

First and foremost, a little bragging is in order. Joe Klein in this week’s issue of Time confirms what “Unpaid” has been saying all along.

“…a stronger Israel is very much embedded in the rational for war with Iraq. It is a part of the argument that dare not speak its name, a fantasy quietly cherished by the neo-conservative faction in the Bush Administration and by many leaders of the American Jewish community…The maddening thing is, the outlines of a Middle East peace are obvious: Israelis abandon most of the settlements; Palestinians abandon the right of return.”

However, what is more interesting of note is the fact that perhaps the real loser in the Columbia tragedy is Black History Month? It does seem odd does it not that not less than two months after Trent Lott’s gaffe no one is banging the drums for more blacks in prominent positions? Could it be the high profile presence of Colin Powell in the news? Is this going to be the month that Black History is actually made with his stirring declaration to the UN Security Council? It is only worth nothing because in the face of Guttinger v. University of Michigan approaching the steps of the Supreme Court one would think that a special on Brown v. Board of Education might be waiting in the wings. But has Black History month become just that?

posted by Thomas at 10:49 PM 0 comments

 
A Revolution for Riyadh?

As more and more blustering goes on about securing Iraq’s oilfields, a new problem arises in the face of conflict there. No one is much interested in suggesting what could be a strong possibility if the United States proceeds to invade Iraq. Most analyses concentrate on the quick surgical nature of American military prowess able to take Baghdad without much of a fight. It’s very possible that the US could move with enough expertise such that the only real concern would be rebuilding the county’s infrastructure.
Except it might not be. The US remains dependant on foreign oil, and with Hugo Chavez paralyzing his nation’s supply while war worries will send prices rising even if supplies are stable, the strike on Saddam could be an economic lump to swallow. Remember though, that as the US attempts to ramp up product of petroleum in Africa, Central Asia, and Iraq, it will become temporarily more reliant upon Saudi Arabia to bridge the gap from its current arrangement to the next one.
The reason that this is a dangerous proposition is that Saudi Arabia remains a country with a very shaky regime. At any time, the House of Saud could fall and if Wahabbite extremists expel Western firms from their oilfields, the world would face an energy crunch of untold proportions as well as an ensuing depression. Unfortunately, the decline of Saudi Arabia may be tied to the Iraqi conflict. Al Qaeda or other individuals may be waiting for the US to be occupied with fighting to launch a preordained coup. It’s also possible that average Saudis might murder the royal family in response to Hussein’s deposition. While security is strong at the derricks, civil unrest in Riyadh has to be taken very seriously.
If a large scale uprising occurred, it is hard to think that the Kingdom could stop such a thing without American assistance. Given the current zeitgeist, the cure could be worse than the affliction for the royal family. However, unless massive economic restructuring occurs within in the next five to ten year, Islamic fundamentalists probably will be able to co-opt the economic woes of the Kingdom and depose the Sauds regardless. If the majority of the US petroleum producing has moved on, this will be an afterthought for US foreign policy. However, there is a significant window of at least three years in which regime collapse in the Kingdom could punish the world economy in a way that events like the World Trade Center attack could not.

posted by Thomas at 1:14 AM 0 comments

 

Primary Colors on Branson

If you caught Frank Lunz on Hardball, this Tuesday you were subjected to a very interesting experiment. The gravel-voiced GOP pollster rounded up 15 New Hampshire voters and then had then watch clips of all the candidates. He then broke down responses into men and women in real time. The stunning revelation? John Kerry (D-MA) smoked Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and Howard Dean (D-VT) for the favor of the Granite State. But before you get all excited about the prospect of Kerry running away with the nomination consider the logic of an earlier post.
Kerry is going to do well in area of Greater Massachusetts largely because his profile is a long one on Boston-area television. Since those broadcasts resonate as far north as Concord, all this really tells us is that Kerry has the early lead because people know who he is among the candidates that they consider to be representative of their values. Now if you like Howard Dean, do you give up at this point? Probably not. Dean has a whole year to become well known.
What this does make more interesting though is the focus on the primaries the next week. John Edwards fell into the toilet with Lunz’s sample. Nevertheless he’s bound to be the frontrunner down in South Carolina on February 3. However, confirmed for that same date is none other than the Missouri primary. Dick Gephardt, assuming he wins in Iowa would be able to look forward to a lot of support. But with New Hampshire and South Carolina already seemingly discovered country, the Missouri primary could huge. It’s Gephardt’s home turf, but it could also be the best chance for Al Sharpton. Consider that Missouri is a state with a huge rural-urban divide. Many of the Democrats will be polling in places like St. Louis and Kansas City and many of them will be African-American. While it’s uncertain just how well Sharpton or Gephardt will resonate, Edwards has to like the pro-South sentiments in Missouri as well.
There’s no telling just where the politicians will go in the Show Me State. Will Trial Lawyer John go to Hannibal and pose as Tom Sawyer? Does Dick take more photos with Rams owner Georgia Frontiere? Will John Kerry come with Beecher’s Bibles? Will Al Sharpton evoke memories of the 1917 riots? Does Lieberman do Branson? Stay tuned.

posted by Thomas at 11:03 PM 0 comments