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Silent Nights?

I can’t explain to you or any person just why Trent Lott waited so long to resign. Instead of getting no one to pay attention, he allowed himself to be the exclamation point, resigning on the Friday before Christmas. Bill Frist won the office of Majority Leader on Christmas Eve, while everyone was busy digging out from the Nor’easter. African Americans are piling it on high and deep with Frist, especially since he didn’t send out any Kwanzaa cards from the GOP. Even so, the President is hiding at the ranch, Cheney in the cave, and Lott is probably still hung over in Shreveport after Ole Miss’s stunning win over Nebraska.
Lost in the fray was news that Joe Lieberman is all but certain to run for the Democratic nomination for president. As mentioned earlier, Howard Dean, Al Sharpton, and John Kerry are wondering how many more people from the Northeast can file a bid. However, when you look at the number of states Al Gore won in 2000, can you blame the New England contingent from being the most confident? Not Joseph and the Technicolor Head Shot.
Yet with Donald Rumsfeld seemingly looking to pick a fight with every member of the Axis of Evil (at once!) more and more conservatives seem to be doubting Bush’s motives for war in Iraq. Oh yeah that’s right, Daniel Pipes can talk about peacenik liberals all he wants, but this time, Nebraska Senator and Republican Chuck Hagel is beginning to disagree about the path to peace running through Baghdad. Moreover, it seems that he would have buried on page A24 save for CNN’s own Robert Novak weighing in on “Sharon’s War”. It’s hilarious to hear an old guard guy like Novak rip apart the Bush plan so eloquently, but he does it to perfection. Israeli politics are going to make the Bush administration choose which constituency he favors more: oil or Jews. Until the New Year however, expect things to be quiet. Maybe too quiet.

posted by Thomas at 12:01 AM 0 comments

 
Trent Lott Roasting on an Open Fire…

It’s Christmas, and while I do not usually expect a Senate Majority leader served on the platter, apparently the war within the Senate GOP grows. However, the problem is that while Senate Whip Don Nickels might have had enough votes to pull Lott out of the race…he might have to wait until the day before Congress reconvenes. Which is great... if you are home with nothing to do during the holidays. This awful little melodrama thankfully only has one more card to play and it’s the intriguing one. If Lott is deposed, at some point in the process, he might resign and let a Democrat fill the void. However, many involved parties with the exception of President Bush may be incommunicado until the January 6th date. Lott could shock us like Al Gore, but he's unlikely to resign and go down fighting. Expect major sabre-rattling on both sides, and if Lott goes, don't be surprised if Daschle succeeds him again as Senate Majority leader.

And in case you smelled something burning besides Ol’ Trent…that would be the Venezuelan oil industry. Despite the fact that American media is spending zero time on this issue, it’s arguably a bigger foreign policy issue than Iraq. In fact, the second largest producer of oil to the US is Hugo Chavez’s backyard. While a coup seemed to resolve the problem in April…in fact you now have a huge general strike that has crippled the country. Gasoline prices are going up in the US, which is certain to slow economic growth here. So if we are so willing to bomb Baghdad to resolve things, why not Caracas?

One reason may be that as a democracy, we are disinterested in doing so. The other reason may be is that Bush does not think that there is a landmass south of Mexico or Cuba. But apparently it may be because there is no good answer. It’s not as if Chavez is going to play the role of a South American Qaddafi. It also may be because Powell himself isn’t sure what you are supposed to do, and that despite being preoccupied with that other nation in the Middle East, he has free rein. There were accusations that the US was behind the coup in April, and it’s hard to know what lay ahead if petroleum production reaches a standstill. Of course, even if the US acts, history has shown that in Latin America it prefers more “covert means”.

Incidentially however, Chavez’s rise does relate to certain pandering in the Persian Gulf. As Venezuela too is dependant on the export price of oil, overproduction has hurt the economy ever since export prices collapsed in 1986. It just so happened that instead of producing an Osama bin Laden-style revolutionary, from Venezuela the world got the myrmidon Hugo Chavez.

posted by Thomas at 12:42 AM 0 comments

 
The All-Consuming Fire

Two political bombshells in one day, and the implications could not be more far reaching. The first is that Don Nickels of Oklahoma is eager to supplant Trent Lott for majority leader. Of course, if Lott were to resign or be removed, Nickels would be the most likely candidate along with Bill Frist of Tennessee, and perhaps Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. But McConnell is worried that if Lott resigns in disgrace, he will punish the party in the best way he knows how: leave the Senate. Mississippi’s Democratic governor, Ronnie Musgrove, then appoints recently gerrymandered ex-congressman Ronnie Shows to split the Senate 50-50. Of course, remember Lott was the one to castigate Jim Jeffords’ departure in February. Apparently of course, the other senior partners in the GOP Senate want a sign from President Bush before continuing. Consider for Bush though that this is a no-win situation. Either he alienates his conservative base in the South that like men like Lott or alienate the Senate leadership for the two most important years of his presidency. You get the feeling that Bush would rather see the Supreme Court play kingmaker but this time it’s him.

Not to be outdone, Al Gore tells the nation on 60 minutes that it is over. He will not make a return overture for the presidency. So why is this important? Because now that Gore is out of the primary…the Hobbesian nightmare has begun between who knows how many people that will ultimately vie for the Democratic nomination. Remember too that Joe Lieberman has a cozy base of operations in Connecticut which like Dean and Kerry place him in very good position to day trip into New Hampshire. So of course, don’t be surprised that John Edwards, the Southerner already has plans for a firewall in South Carolina. It also casts doubts who would win in Iowa exactly. Polling data has suggested it would be Gephardt because of his proximity to the state. But the same data seemingly underpins Daschle’s chance. This doesn’t make much sense, since the Iowa electorate is bound to represent Daschle’s hometown of Aberdeen, South Dakota over Gephardt’s in Saint Louis, Missouri.

It appears that pundits proclaiming a "Pax Republica" in the historic November mid-term elections were a slight bit premature. Who could have thought that as bad as it looked before Senator Lott took the podium that fateful night in the Capitol that he would singlehandly swtich the momentum to the Democrats just as the point in which the GOP appeared ascendant. Within the course of but a couple weeks suddenly Mary Landrieu appears to be the Democrats' Genevieve to Karl Rove's Atilla. Bush just better hope the weapon inspectors find something incriminating, and fast.

posted by Thomas at 10:29 PM 0 comments

 
A Lott of Questions

It was supposed to be Strom Thurmond’s night on Thursday. He was supposed to be the guest of honor with his illustrious Senate career behind him, and the Senate newly returned to Republican hands. The champion of the GOP in the Senate was there, one Trent Lott. The Senate majority-turned minority-back to majority leader praised Thurmond’s “Dixiecrat” run for president in 1948 and declared that Mississippi (Lott’s home state) had voted for him and that if the rest of the nation had joined in, there would not be all these “problems”.

Not long after of course, people found the clip of Thurmond proclaiming that there were not enough soldiers in the wake of World War II to force the “nigger race into our schools”, homes, and golf courses. Instantly the connection was made that Lott was trying to win brownie points with Southern nostalgia. Except it was probably the wrong piece of nostalgia. Lott was most likely referring to the platform of “states’ rights” and the ever more increasing bite that the federal government took out of state autonomy. The destruction of slavery and the Civil War was just part of a two hundred year struggle with the “gummint” and “freedom”.

And there is no doubt that Lott paints himself as a fan of states’ rights. But with the great expansion of federal power after domestic terror, Republicans often were chided as discarding their fear of big government for more protection. And with Lott’s base the biggest Navy yard in the south, he’s likely to vote for any defense pork. In 1998, he even went so far to introduce legislation that trumped state laws about “rebuilt wrecks”. So why then does it surprise us that Lott is a hypocrite, not a racist?

Well it is because the Council of Conservative Citizens continues to praise Lott for his association with him. And they want him to use federal troops to patrol the border. The real irony, federal troops cannot serve because of states’ rights legislation: the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 at the end of Reconstruction. So if this whole matter appears to be confusing, don’t worry. Instead of a nice way to celebrate Thurmond’s life and the resumption of Republican control of the Senate, Lott has provided more questions. Lotts of them.

posted by Thomas at 6:52 PM 0 comments

 
Another Gulf War Piece

It’s no secret that President Bush wants to find any excuse to send in the troops and oust Saddam Hussein. We here at “Unpaid” went so far as to explain just what is likely to happen when the troops start marching. So the question is, why are we going into Iraq in the first place? Is it really all about weapons of mass destruction, or oil, or what?
There is a possibility that Iraq has nuclear weapons, but the problem with this assertion is that Iraq isn’t about to use them. Iraq is likely to have to sough to develop them because of the Iran-Iraq war and then subsequent fears of an Israeli-Iraq conflict. In fact considering that Iraq is surrounded by nuclear powers like Russia, Israel, the US and the like, one would be hard pressed to think a cagey dictator like Saddam Hussein would want to use nukes for anything but deterrence.
So is it oil? It is true that if the US seizes Iraq that after about five or ten years production there would be enough to minimize reliance on regimes like Saudi Arabia. But the problem with this line of thinking is that if Saddam is left to his own devices he might try and seize Saudi Arabia again, or Kuwait and drive up the price of oil. Unfortunately, most of the foreign oil the US comes from Venezuela, not Saudi Arabia. Secondly, Hussein would not attempt to sequester the oil; he needs it to gain revenue. At one point the Economist pointed out that in fact, while Hussein would keep the pumps going, a radical regime like the Taleban would tear down the wells and plunge the world oil market into crisis.
But if this is what Bush and the Administration fear, why then exactly go into Iraq. The uncertainty and uncomfortable state of affairs in the Gulf exists because the price of oil is going down, and creating more supply from a place like Iraq is going to accelerate the decline of such regimes in places like the Kingdom. It is possible that the US is trying to secure these reserves for the future, but it rings hollow because of the infrastructure invested in Saudi Arabia. To drill in Iraq is to invite economic collapse. But if Bush is worried that these other regimes are tenuous, doing this will be a self-fullfilling prophecy. As the price of oil dives, so will the survival of the emirs along the Gulf and the potential for a radical government to rise.
So why then regime change? In a word, Israel. It appears that the US is trying to prevent a war between Iraq and Israel by eliminating the last major Arab military in the region. The reason? Israel is getting eager to seize more and more of the West Bank and fears that Iraq could be aid the Palestinean cause with weapons. After all, nations like Jordan and Egypt are prohibited by treaty from really getting involved. Iraq, however, has nothing to worry about. It’s already a regional paraiah and would stand to gain points by standing up to the Israelis for the rest of the Arab world. And unlike the Jordanians and Saudis, the Iraqis have a military that will discourage Israel for going to war with them. After all, if Iraq declares war on Israel, it’s over, but if Israel is the provocateur, Bush may decide winning the Jewish vote isn’t worth it.
Then again, if Iraq is removed, Israel becomes the most important military power in the Middle East with the exception of Turkey. It means the arc of American empire there is very strong. It also means that unlike the first Gulf War, a redux is likely the point of no return. Once Saddam is gone, it’s a sign that the Middle East shall soon be in ferment.

posted by Thomas at 12:40 AM 0 comments

 
Kerry Admits to Committee

First it was Al Sharpton. Then it was Vermont governor Howard Dean. And now at last, John Kerry has upped the pressure on the 21st century Andrew Jackson: Al Gore. Kerry announced he will set up an exploratory committee to seek the Democratic nomination for the Presidency. This puts pressure on Gore and Southerner sweetheart John Edwards to move. Gore is set to host Saturday Night Live in two weeks, but he may yet wait until 2003 to make his announcement. Whether or not stated, most campaigns will have to be viable by August of 2003 to be ready for an ever-earlier primary season.
By announcing early, Kerry may sap fundraising dollars from his regional rival, Howard Dean. However, the Doctor is about to be freed from his day to day duties in Montpellier. This means he can spend a lot more time in New Hampshire than Kerry. This is not to say that it isn’t easier to get from Boston to Manchester. When Congress is not in session you can be sure Kerry will be canvassing the state. However Dean is empowered by new FEC guidelines that allow him to collect a salary from his campaign.
So at least at the moment expect Dean to hit the more rural areas of the state in the early going with Kerry hoping to hit its more urban ones. Al Sharpton meanwhile has a problem on his hands. Iowa has Iowa City, which is 14% to use as his proscenium for the straw poll. New Hampshire on the other hand is 2% black. No city or township is more than 3% black. At least South Carolina has a healthy population of African Americans along with Richmond, Virginia.
The other detail that is significant is John Kerry’s reliance on the trial lawyers lobby for money. It was stated that John Edwards the protégé of this lobby in the primary, yet Kerry early entrance again might mean slimmer pickings for the boy senator from North Carolina. At least there are more lawyers than African-Americans in New Hampshire.

posted by Thomas at 12:20 AM 0 comments

 
New England Showdown?

We know it’s really early, but word that Massachusetts senator John Kerry plans on forming an exploratory presidential committee indicates that the 2004 primary season will start hot, very hot for the Democrats. This is because of the candidates that appear to realistically on the ballot, two are from New England: Vermont governor John Dean and Kerry. Expect Tom Daschle, Dick Gephardt, and Joe Lieberman to surrender by Iowa, leaving most likely John Edwards, Al Sharpton, Al Gore with the two Northeast candidates to canvass the Granite State in January.
Gore and Edwards will be able to pepper the state’s limited media market with plenty of ads, but as Southerners, face the same sort bias New Hampshire voters had for Bill Clinton in 1992, Bob Dole in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000. Each of these candidates lost only to rebound for their party’s nomination and face the incumbent. Clinton and Bush were Southern governors while Dole remained a purely Washingtonian influence. Edwards, facing a tough reelection bid for Senate in 2004, may elect to wait until 2008 to try for the presidency, figuring that Bush is nearly unbeatable. Sharpton may yet get some significant support somewhere, but labor unions and blacks are not strong in New Hampshire and he is likely to be unpopular.
Nevertheless, Dean and Kerry will dig in early and in a bruising winter campaign keep the nation on edge. Currently, Kerry appears he will escape with the nomination. The reason for this is that Dean is keen to seek out the favor of the more rural and traditional voters that live in the north and west. In other words, the parts of the state that resemble Vermont. Kerry will use his popularity as Massachusetts senator in Greater Mass: hi-tech corridors and more populous areas south of Concord.
In 2002, these constituencies faced off in the Republican Senate primary. Incumbent Bob Smith fought John Sununu Jr. and lost. Sununu cautiously allied himself with Greater Massachusetts and found the numbers to be in his favor. If Kerry does the same, he will ride it to victory and gird for the next week’s contest.
The rest looks decidedly less clear. Democratic Party by-laws indicate that several states may schedule their primaries as soon as possible, namely February 3, 2002. If this is true, Gore will have the advantage over Kerry and Dean. If however, only one big state is up for grabs as is currently, Virginia, Kerry and Gore are likely to fight for it while Dean will concentrate on South Carolina. Dean’s attitudes toward gun control and other issues will resonate with Southern voters. Missouri too will be a hard-fought state as it remains the bellwether for the general election since 1960.

posted by Thomas at 5:29 PM 0 comments

 
Gulf War II: a Military Review

No matter what anyone says, the upcoming war in Iraq will not be a cakewalk. Instead, it will be dinner time television fare for American who watch their armed forces try to do what they are not good at: a manhunt. The Bush administration does not want ot admit it, but as powerful as the US military is, it failed to find either Osama bin Laden or Mullah Omar in Afghanistan. This time, instead of being a wilderness, the search is headed to the cities.

First Phase: US begins a concentrated boming campaing on Baghdad, hoping that Saddam Hussein will surrender. Instead, Hussein responds by hiding. The US, hoping to leave most of the state's infrastructure intact, send Special Forces into Baghdad and other cities. Kurds attempt to mobilize but only succceed halfway. Iraqi National Congress tries to proclaim itself in control, but in reality everyone will be uncertain just what is going on. Iraqi military instead retreats to a guerilla campaign.

Second Phase: Iraqi missles take aim at Israeli military and security targets. Iraq does not have the ability to wage war with Israel, but rather enable the Palestineans to wage another intifada. Iraq also attempts to smash oil refineries and other American targets in the Gulf, but specifically not attack Arabs or Arab targets. Damage to oil production causes European oil prices to spike. EU angrily rebukes the US and demands a quick finish to the conflict.

Third Phase: EU pulls out of a coalition and Israel retakes the West Bank. Support in the Arab world now almost completely eroded. US then begins a massive invasion of troops and Iraqi ground forces withdraw. American forces quickly take Baghdad. Law and order slowly deteriorate. US Congress demands that troops be withdrawn by the end of 2003. Iraqi National Congress asks US military to withdraw, US military refuses.

Fourth Phase: Kurdish troops declare autonomy from INC. INC attempts to take control of central Iraq. US forces hunker down and occupy the bottom third. US asks that the Kurds welcome US military protection at Bayji. Kurds decline. Congress reiterates demand.

Fifth Phase: American military forces carve out "enclaves" in Bayji and Basra for UN Peacekeepers as well as supporting the INC for Baghdad. Regional elections are scheduled for November of 2003. Bush adminstrations declares US peacekeepers may be in Iraq, "for the foreseeable future".

So will Hussein be found? Does it matter? The US will have a very murky situation indeed. The principal military objective will be secure Iraq's oilfields. After that however, it's completely unclear. The reason for this is that military exercises in Afghanistan appear less and less settled every day. Again, it's hard to know the exact sequence of events. However, without any real sort of sign as to what is to come, this is my interpretation of what will occur.
posted by Thomas at 7:22 PM 0 comments

 
People v. Islam

Apparently Zacharias Moussaoui is smarter than previously thought. It is true that he dismissed his own lawyers and sought to represent himself. However, a notable Muslim attorney, with a history of representing journalists, one Charles Freeman, would like to become Moussaoui's counsel, and in doing so, change the complexion of this trial. After all, had the French citizen faced the federal courts alone, it would have been easy in Alexandria, Virginia (one town over from the Pentagon's home in Arlington) to take an Islamic malcontent like Moussaoui and peg him to a laundry list of charges. But instead of that, and instead of Moussaoui using court appointed attorneys who probably do not relish him criticizing them as tools of the oppressor, we will see, should Charles Freeman be allowed, a return to a very, very racially charged trial on the tune of People v. Simpson. Yes that is right, imagine if you will, a redux of Johnnie Cochran and O.J. Simpson pandering to the jury and the millions of television viewers at home. Now imagine that both men are Black Muslims. This means that even though at one time Moussaoui looked like a lock at being convicted and possibility sent to death, it now means anything can happen, and probably will.

The saving grace may be that since federal courts rarely if ever allow televised proceedings, that America will be spared a return to O.J. mania. Even so, the Black Muslim community in America holds the key to Al-Qaeda and other Islamic groups being able to avoid a kangaroo court. The US was fearful of this all the way back to not allow military detainees the right to stay in America after being captured in Afghanistan. The reality is that while suicide attacks provide no perpertrator to try, failed attacks and non-suicidal ones are used by the government to assure that justice will be served. From Ramzi Yousef in 1993 to Timothy McVeigh, to even Moussaoui himself, the US wants to prove that terrorists face life imprisionment or the death penalty should they conspire against the country. So far, none of the high profile targets since the Cold War, like Yousef, McVeigh or for example, Shiekh Abdul Rahman, have escaped. But we must not forget that O.J. Simpson in the eyes of many did, because he made the trial about culture, and not intent.

Also, it is important to realize that several black radicals either found themselves in jail or otherwise indisposed throughout the 1960s and 70s. Some, such as Huey Newton, found exile in Cuba. Others like Mumia Abu-Jamal remain in the ouibilette of the state despite a massive following protesting his innocence. The black community in America still rallies around the nostalgic images of the Black Panthers and other "terrorist" organizations of its day. However, since Moussaoui is inminical to America in total, it is unlikely that all of Black America will enjoin him. Instead, if he becomes adopted by the face of American Muslims, be prepared for the trial to be a major statment on race and religion, and less about his actions in the past.


posted by Thomas at 4:26 PM 0 comments

 
Saudi Arabia, Suddenly the World's Most Scrutinized Kingdom

Perhaps it was a blessing in disguise when the soccer team representing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia managed to lose all of its round-robin games in the World Cup. Nothing else the al-Saud family seems to do gets positive media exposure in the US, or is it really just the imagination of the conservatives? Not longer after, of course, the World Trade Center fell down, the FBI released the names of the nineteen perpetrators. On its face, the majority of them did carry Saudi citizen and did manage to escape undetected. The royal family preceeded to buy newspaper advertisements in major newspapers declaring how much it grieved. Not long after the Bureau arrested a man in connection with an abandoned rocket launcher outside the Prince Sultan Air Base last week, two conservative political pundits seem to take issue with the country, only to get an interesting coincidence.

Simon Veness, a British man working in the capital, Riyadh was the target of a car bomb that would look totally appropriate in a place like Spain, but sort of suspicious in the land of Mohammed. Meanwhile, Jay Mowbray of National Review details in their July 1 issue that a visa express program by the United States allowed three of said hijackers to enter the country. When Mr. Mowbray appeared on Fox News Channel with John Gibson, I had to protest. Saudi travel agents are not working to help Al-Qaeda allow in more potential terrorists. Instead, Consular Affairs allowed travel agents to collect forms and other such documentation for them, but not process it. The accusation that Mowbray should have made is that why do Saudi citizens enjoy a streamlined visa process to enter the United States when business visas only became available to Americans traveling to the Kingdom in the past decade? You can now go on a "government approved tour" that allows a tourist visa in a sense, but this is all very new. Not to mention the fact, you have to be sponsored, and the processing takes "several months". It seems odd not that Consular Affairs would delegate work to the travel agents, but allow such dilatory tactics by the Kingdom for US travelers.

But wait, there is more. Bill Kristol announced to the world today that apparently, the Bush administration conitnues to push for a "provisional Palestinean state" because of a back-room deal when Crown Prince Abdullah visited the Crawford, Texas ranch that is the President's nominal home. Kristol speculates that among other things, the administration must dearly want a reprieve from being kicked out of its military bases because an attack on Iraq is "imminent". Unfortunately, Kristol has been advocating an assault on the Axis of Evil for a while now, and gotten nothing for all the hot air expended. There is no doubt that Bush is getting gored by dealing with the Saudis on foreign policy, but as an oil man himself, he understands how big the stakes are should the Saudis decide that they want to do something like another oil embargo. Abdullah has the ability to hurt us very deeply. But as Condelezza Rice warned the Iraqis in April: "We hope you enjoy eating your oil?" Even if Saudi Arabia turned off the spigot, it would have too much invested capital elsewhere...not to mention nothing to buy other imports with.

The reason to worry now is not that Bush promised a Palestinean state or more jet fighters to Crown Prince Abdullah. Instead, the car bomb should be the real concern. Al Qaeda would love nothing more than knock the royal family out of control, and force the US to occupy Saudi Arabia. From there, Osama Bin Laden would hope once and for all that Muslims would rise and expel the tyrannical American regime. As the Economist once pointed out, Saddam Hussein might be a dictator, but he would not tear down the oil wells. The Taliban might try to. Bush meanwhile, is trying to keep his oil men friends happy by ensuring that the Saudis get what they want. The grim reality is that too much of the world energy apparatus is dependent on this very weak regime, and so long as Bush and the oil lobby is in power, we will have to fight to the end to defend it.







posted by Thomas at 6:29 PM 0 comments

 
Coming Soon
posted by Thomas at 2:01 AM 0 comments

 
Thomas Soteros-McNamara

Thomas is a Master of Public Policy Student at the University of Southern California. He writes this blog in attempt to go "on record" about his opinions and protect himself from character assassination. Thomas previously appeared in the student newspaper, The Daily Bruin as a columnist.
posted by Thomas at 12:22 AM 0 comments