Nevada: No Longer “the Service State”?

It’s been a big year for Nevada. The Las Vegas monorail is finally up and working. MGM Mirage acquired Mandalay Bay Resorts. Electronic voting machines managed to print out thousands of paper receipts. And yes, Silver State resident Dudley Hiibel failed to overturn a Nevada Supreme Court ruling that you must answer if a police officer asks for your name. But Nevada’s biggest story of 2004 proved to be overwhelming success for a measure raising the minimum wage. Previously, Nevada had used the federal guideline. The measure must be approved again, because under Nevada law there must be two affirmative referendum votes if an issue amends the state constitution. This proposal would.

Even so, why is this perhaps the most neglected story in America in 2004, let alone Nevada? Nevada is a state where nearly everyone works in the service sector. Some jobs in mining remain, but the state has almost no manufacturing presence or other raw materials like timber. A service sector job tends either to be a highly lucrative professional career, or low-paid part-time work. Nowhere is this truer than Nevada. While lawyers and doctors continue to be in demand, there are more openings for bellhops, housekeepers, and security guards. But the ballot measure was not just popular in Clark County, where Las Vegas sits, but across the entire state. It triumphed even in the most Republican and conservative counties.

In short, it appears that in other states where manufacturing jobs have been replaced by service ones there will be growing support to raise the minimum wage. After all, Nevada represents the future of the America. It grapples not only with labor issues, but also public transportation failures, water shortages, and urban renewal. For years, the lure of low state taxation spurred development. Nevada has been the fastest-growing state since 1986. But solutions have been few and far between. The monorail system closed abruptly in September only to reopen last week. Lake Mead’s water level continues to drop, exacerbating drought conditions. MGM Mirage meanwhile, is trying to lure people to live in a new mixed-use development on the Strip. This is heresy in a town where most residents never venture onto Las Vegas Boulevard unless they are going to eat at a good restaurant. While no solution to these ills may gain the currency that gambling has in other states, a higher minimum wage just might. Florida, equally dependent on tourism and low-wage work, passed an identical measure on the same day as Nevada. Support is growing in other, rapidly developing states, such as Arizona.

Yet perhaps the most curious thought for 2005: job growth is set to rise precipitously in both the South and West. The largest openings: low-paying jobs like customer service. That news is sending shockwaves already to state governments like Nevada’s, which are worried the federal government will not increase Medicare funding. Part-time employees are not entitled to medical coverage under federal and state laws. Many of them have to rely on Medicare. In Nevada and other states primarily reliant on part-time service sector work, there are two likely outcomes.

One, states are forced to raise their own Medicare premiums. A raise in the minimum wage would not be enough to send hundreds of families or individuals into bankruptcy. With interest rates set to rise, home refinance and credit cards will become less viable ways to underwrite big expenses. Ensuing personal bankruptcies would trigger a wave of foreclosures, flooding the home market with numerous properties priced to move. This in turn would push down home prices in states with red-hot real estate markets, of which Nevada is the leader. While a real-estate dip along might not be enough to cause a national recession, it could be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Two, Nevada could raise taxes to offset the Medicare gap. Just less than forty percent of all tax revenue in Nevada comes from gambling. Property taxes are low, and the constitution prohibits a state income tax. With MGM-Mirage now the largest employer in Nevada by far, larger than even the state itself, it would be hard to imagine a hike in property or gaming taxes. That leaves a sales tax increase of some sort. It could take the form of higher hotel taxes, but this would hurt MG-Mirage who runs among the most expensive resorts in the state. It could also be an across-the-board sales tax hike, which would eat up most of the gains made by raising the minimum wage. The drop in consumer spending also would lead to economic sclerosis equal to if Medicare premiums go up.

The obvious solution would then be to diversify the labor market with higher paying jobs. More are coming in the form of government scientists. The Department of Energy has decided to close its nuclear weapons laboratory at Los Alamos, New Mexico in favor of a more secure and remote location at the Nevada Test Site. But the influx of researchers is probably not enough. The state will have to find other ways to attract higher-paying jobs if it wants to avoid the reputation of being “the Service State”.

Five People Fox News Ought to Hire Before Zell Miller

It was a rousing moment; the Fox News Channel had the highest viewership in the history of its existence on September 1, 2004. Senator Zell Miller proclaimed that John Kerry wanted to defend America with “spitballs” speaking at the Republican National Convention. A Georiga Democrat, Zell had voted with the Republicans so often many wondered why he had not changed parties. Miller maintains it is the Democratic Party that abandoned his values, not vice versa. And that hook is why Fox News Channel has decided to hire Miller as a contributor. It may or may not be a gimmick. Even if it is not, there are several other personalities who FNC should have hired before the former Georgia governor.

Brad Carson: No Democrat candidate has been more critical of the Party’s strategy after November 2. To hear him tell it, Democrats cannot win in Oklahoma so long as it is the party of Hillary Clinton and Ted Kennedy. What’s more, the Rhodes Scholar Carson lacks any Southern twang in his voice. This combined with being only 37 years old, means he cannot be written off as a civil rights era relic like Miller could be. Carson also is just as organic as Miller, having been born and raised in a long-time Oklahoman family.

Michael Scheuer: Certainly guys like William Kristol, Richard Perle, and Paul Wolfowitz chafe at the former CIA analyst’s suggestion that the US has to reevaluate its relationship with Israel. But Scheuer’s assertion that we are really fighting an Islamic insurgency, not terrorism is music to the ears of people who want to expand the “war on terror”. His warm, teddy-bear countenance is a stark contrast to more sinister-looking folk like Charles Krauthammer. Add in the fact that few former CIA agents appear on ANY all-news channel and you can see why getting the man formerly known only as “Mike” should be a big priority for Fox.

Victor David Hanson: You might question why Fox would want to hire the author of the book “Mexifornia”. Rural votes were the key to Bush’s victory in ’04, not Latinos. Hanson comes from a long line of farmers while also being a professor in classics. His slow, deliberate style of speaking is melodious and thoughtful. He is also from California, where agriculture is the largest employer despite being it being a “blue state”. All of these things make Hanson a distinct voice, and someone who can speak forcefully albeit constructively.

Ralph Nader: Here is a real, dyed-in-the-wool liberal who has absolutely nothing good to say about the Democratic Party. For while Zell hit John Kerry from the right, Nader bashed him from the left. It’s true that Nader would likely never take money from Rupert Murdoch or Roger Ailes…but not because they are conservative. Nader has been a very strong antagonist toward media consolidation. He fears that if the sources of information congeal into fewer and fewer hands, it is more possible for people to be misled. Murdoch recently bought DirecTV to ensure that the Fox brand in America, the NewsCorp brand in Australia, and the Sky brand elsewhere always have a modicum of broadcast. Certainly no one represents these views among the current Fox News Contributors, but Nader’s other solidly liberal opinions mean he would still be in the panelist minority.

Jesse Ventura: His MSNBC show didn’t quite make it, but that doesn’t mean that the former governor of Minnesota would not work well as a contributor. He’s from the heartland, and he’s not exactly well liked by Republicans OR Democrats. But the reason to pick him over Miller, Ventura isn’t trying to write books. He says lots of punchy things, but does not market himself as a McCain wannabe. Add the deep voice and the background in acting, and be it Jesse “the Mind” or Jesse “Body”…Roger Ailes ought to dial his agent.

The Partial Jenna Bush Reader

No Child Left Behind is turning into a family affair. Jenna Bush has set her sights on a District of Columbia charter school for employment as a fourth-grade teacher. It’s an interesting decision, given the fact that several parts of the District have some of the worst primary schools in America, compromised almost entirely of minorities. What makes it even more compelling is that as No Child Left Behind has caused uproar in large urban school districts, individual schools have sought independence by becoming charter members of the state or district department of education. With her major being English, “Unpaid’ suggests some equally intriguing reading lists for Jenna Bush’s prospective students.

Roll of Thunder Hear My Cry: I don’t know if Jenna cried for TJ, but this book definitely will resonate with her students. Themes of oppression, quiet strength, manipulation by whites, and economic hardship fit in quite well with the youth of Columbia Heights. One of the few Newberry Medal Winners with blacks and not white children as protagonists, “Thunder” is a great vehicle to push students to empower themselves no matter who the teacher is. But with Jenna’s school only a mile away from the African-American Civil War Memorial, in the heart of DC’s most renown black neighborhood, “Thunder” may become required reading.

The Whipping Boy: With Colin Powell unemployed, he has plenty of time to lead a discussion on Jemmy and Prince Brat. After all, no one can beat the Prince when he misbehaves, he or she can only beat the “boy”. When Jemmy finally decides he has had enough, he escapes, but the Prince tags along…and Jemmy realizes that he will blamed for abducting Brat. Once Brat recognizes he cannot take other people for granted, well Jemmy resigns from his position in the Cabinet anyway. It’s a cautionary tale for the children; fool me once shame on me, fool me twice shame on George Tenet.

Where the Wild Things Are: Jenna may be lacking a wolf-suit of her own, but her bad girl reputation now precedes the Bush Twins. While it’s aimed at a younger audience, even Jenna’s father can appreciate the idea that sometimes you need to admit you are wrong, no matter how vivid your imagination is.

Holes: This most recent publication of the list was so inventive it even won a movie deal. It’s a tale about crime, punishment, and most of all, ulterior motives under the guise of rehabilitation. It’s unlikely that her fourth graders will figure out it’s really allegory for how the older generation tends to treat the younger. (Be it by installing the draft, cutting welfare benefits, or leaving a big manure pile of federal debt.) But no matter, it’s still a viable way to teach children how to address conflicted feelings.

My Pet Goat: So riveting even the President could not put it down during a national emergency. Wait, that wasn’t why he kept reading even after Andy Card told him about the first terrorist attack? You’re kidding, right?

Breaking the Bank: The US is Running out Troops to Send to Iraq.

Former drug czar Barry McCaffrey suggested on Sunday’s episode of “Meet the Press” that the fifth troop rotation into Iraq would mark the limit of American military capabilities. He went on to suggest that if nothing is done, within a year “we’re in trouble”. The host of Meet the Press, Tim Russert, then asked if a larger army was necessary and McCaffrey along with other panelists agreed. None of them attempted to propose other solutions…and opening the door for a real debate. How does one solve the imminent manpower shortage in Iraq?

Hire More Soldiers: Given how the civilian American labor markets works, somehow there’s the belief that if the US offers more open positions with the armed service, more people will gladly join. But undoubtedly the conflict in Iraq has all but ensured those joining the military are from either from a proud family of servicemen, or they have few other opportunities to better themselves. During the relative peace of the Cold War, military pay and benefits were enough to ensure a middle class existence for many that served. However, for middle-class college graduates a life in the Army has become the very anathema of their ambitions. That leaves the military to compete for the most undesirable members of the American workforce.
A totally separate question is if the armed services can attract enough people from any station in life. Demographics point to this being a harder task overall as the labor market continues to shrink. Should the economy continue to grow, this task could become even more difficult.

Outsourcing: You heard us right, send most of the troops home. If most of the country is peaceful and safe as claimed, the Iraqi National Forces should have little trouble keeping the peace there. An American military contingent would remain, but largely to carry out “hornet’s nest” operations like Fallujah. However, we suspect the reason this idea is not pursued heavily is because of one word: oil.
The public eye spends plenty of time concentrating on attacks in the Green Zone and other insurgent attacks in the cities. However, far less attention is given to the struggle for Iraq’s oil-producing infrastructure. The Pentagon is coy to say how much military might is actually protecting these pipelines and oil fields as opposed to patrolling the streets of Sadr City. It is no secret how much the Bush Administration planned to use oil revenue to pay for reconstruction. McCaffrey comments indicate the US is afraid to use Iraqi troops to protect these petroleum reserves. If this commitment alone is big enough to as McCaffrey says, “break the bank”, America finds itself in a real pickle.

Beg the UN for Help: President Bush won’t call it that, but he may try and use the oil-for-food imbroglio to suggest that the UN “repay its debt to the Iraqi people”. The biggest stumbling block is none other than Secretary General Kofi Annan. While it is likely true there was corruption involving Oil-for-Food it is probably that the US firms involved were simply not getting the better end of the deals. Certainly companies like Bechtel and Halliburton are now, but even those have come with a price. Annan currently is not volunteering to bail out the US because of the nearly ad hominem style attacks by Senator Norm Coleman. Make no mistake, the United Nations would love to use Iraq as proof that no nation is as strong as to disregard the will and the resources of the UN. But he wants to make sure that efforts to unseat him are unsuccessful first.

Bring Back the Draft: Oh sure, Bush said it was just a rumor during the debates, but he’s not running for President anymore. Even though there is no shortage of young men to serve, the real questions are if the draft army would work and if the occupational strategy is ever winnable. Because of the nature of Vietnam, there is a disagreement whether conscription itself is the problem or that occupation is always a recipe for failure. No one truly wants to take the political consequences from a draft, but under the right circumstances these can be mitigated. Unfortunately given the nature of Bush’s conduct, such circumstances are unlikely to happen.

The Battle of New Orleans

A week of political developments now suggests that President Bush is on a collision course with Senate Democrats over the judicial nomination of Priscilla Owen. On Sunday, incoming Senate minority leader Harry Reid proclaimed that he would not simply accept the judicial nominations of the President without question. He spent most of his time attacking the notion that Clarence Thomas should be Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court. But several of Bush’s picks remain in limbo, with Democrats like Reid threatening a filibuster. On Monday, the US Supreme Court ridiculed three appellate decisions of the Fifth Circuit (to which Owen has been nominated) over death penalty procedure. The most outstanding case, evidence came forward of the Dallas district attorney using jury handbooks that recommend only whites to serve on juries. Add that on Thursday, President Bush had announced no more Cabinet members were leaving. The remaining holdovers are all either minorities or women. And then later on Thursday, Fifth Circuit judge Charles Pickering announced his retirement from the court in favor of “someone younger”. Pickering had been grilled in hearing over his seemingly benign view of a cross-burning defendant. Bush had issued a recess appointment, which would last until the start of the next Congress, after being denied a vote on the Senate floor.

All roads lead to Owen. Bush likes nominating women and minorities to major government posts, using it as a way to appear inclusive even if his policies are not. Owen is a polarizing figure that Democrats detest, but they may have a tough decision whether to dig in and filibuster her only to have Chief Justice of the Supreme Court William Rehnquist resign and trigger an even bigger battle. Owen’s views on the death penalty and abortion are not uplifting, helping fuel the fire between the Fifth Circuit and Supreme Court over death penalty appeals. And Pickering’s exit paves the way for a “younger nominee”. Lastly, Judiciary Committee Arlen Specter is unlikely to suffocate Owen in committee.

What will Reid do? If he knows the Owen won’t pass on the floor of the Senate, he would not resist. If he believes she would squeak through…he would mount an aggressive attack on her using the not so secret weapon. White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales served on the Texas Supreme Court with Owen in the 1990. In at least one major abortion case involving parental notification, Gonzales heavily criticized Owen for being on the fringe of judicial opinion. Instead of using a filibuster solely to delay the vote, the Democrats may turn into a media event all its own: effectively airing every piece of her dirty laundry and painting her as an “activist judge”. Bush used the term to great effect in ’04 but if the Democrats can demonstrate hypocrisy on the matter he might lose the issue.

Still, there is reason to think that Bush merely wants this to happen to vindicate his opinion and alienate more people about the priorities of Senate Democrats. He would love nothing more than to categorize Reid as an “obstructionist”.

Overlooked in all this is the fact that a vote on Owen could backfire. A number of Republican senators running for reelection in 2006 come from battleground states. With Republicans doing better with women in 2004, a number of senators might simply refuse to cast votes. Among the hunted are Olympia Snowe (ME), Rick Santorum (PA), George Allen (VA), and John Ensign (NV) and Lincoln Chafee (RI). Add pro-choice Republicans Lisa Murkowski (AK), Arlen Specter (PA), and Susan Collins (ME) and things start to appear almost dicey for Owen. Yet there is no denying she would easily be confirmed on a straight party-line vote.

Why is Owen so important? Because “judicial activism” supposedly only happens in the Ninth Circuit, based in San Francisco and occupying the largest federal appellate caseload and the largest number of reversals by the Supreme Court. But judicial activism, as in the case of the Texas death penalty lawsuits, can be sins of omission as well as commission. The Fourth Circuit, based in Richmond, Virginia has seen a bevy of suits dealing with terrorism related matters. And the Seventh Circuit has several jurists who favor more radical alterations of contract law. The Fifth Circuit sits in New Orleans. Owen’s presence there would preserve the current state of affairs. Keeping a seat vacant might cause just the opposite.

The Essential Al-Qaeda Travel Planner

Pakistani President (and generalissimo) Pervez Musharraf stopped in Washington over the weekend to inform the White House of his decision on various policies. One of them was the withdrawal of Pakistani troops in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. The search for bin Laden, Musharraf intimated, has gone cold. Equally he refused to allow the US to see Dr. A. Q. Khan,who purportedly had visited with Al Qaeda about providing them a nuclear weapon in the past. Musharraf refused to hazard a guess as to where Osama bin Laden is now. Given that it has been three years since the disastrous assault at Tora Bora, he has certainly had time to escape. Up until now, the suggestion has been that he would hide in desolate locales away from sight. But what if bin Laden and his closest allies like Ayman Al-Zawhiri have been playing tourist. After all, bin Laden is no fan of repressive Arab regimes, and might chose a place where Muslims can worship openly, where government do not support “Zionist” policies, and where he can avoid the spotlight. Still, you aren’t likely to find the Al Qaeda travel planner bundled with your copy of the New York “Times”. Therefore, “Unpaid” struggled long and hard to come up with destinations where (besides the other allures), there is the potential for some terrorist stargazing.

The Maldives: A short flight from Dubai, the Maldives are a handsome string of atolls draped north to south off the southwestern coast of India. With excellent diving opportunities, you can hold your own submersible terror training camp. With the resorts confined to certain parts of the archipelago, the Maldives remains largely untouched and unspoiled. Yet, there is culture in the form of the National Museum and various ruins from an age gone by. Add a relatively progressive and representative republican style of government (even though the same president has reigned for two decades), and this could be all you could ask for.

Malaysia: One of Asia’s growing tourist destinations, Malaysia has everything an Al-Qaeda member could want. A government that spews anti-Zionist rhetoric…gorgeous nature….native women wearing burqas to the beach…excellent diving and aquatic activities as well as a hint of British colonialism. The jungles of Borneo make for an excellent location to practice skills such as climbing, hand-to-hand combat, and team-building. Convenient for cave-style living or houses over the water, Malaysia has been a favorite of such notables as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.

Tunisia: Supposedly, the Tunisians in Al Qaeda were among bin Laden’s most trusted adherents. Tunisia is worth a visit for every type of traveler. Ruins, culture, and nature have drawn Europeans across the Mediterranean Sea for years. But why would some one like bin Laden or al-Zawahiri set up shop? While the government has been tough on Islamic extremists and is by all accounts not yet an open and free democracy, the press offerings are plentiful and personal freedoms are better than other parts of the Arab world. Also, the shapeless and foreboding Sahara Desert beckons at the southern frontier. So whether you are looking for a rugged, ascetic vacation or a more sybaritic, hedonistic escape, Tunisia ranks high in the Al Qaeda travel planner.

Bulgaria: Despite the horror that befell Muslims in places like Romania and Spain earlier in history, Bulgaria is a place where the Ottoman Empire simply withdrew from. Though become more commercialized and less authentic…Bulgaria is still a place emblematic of antediluvian Eastern Europe. From the heady mix of cosmopolitan delights and Old World culture found in the capital Sofia, to the charm of it’s Valley of the Roses, Bulgaria should be on your tourist radar anyway. But it also has enjoyable resorts on the Black Sea and great natural attractions as well as a short border with Turkey. It’s through this gap that thousands of migrants pass from Asia to Europe in search of work and opportunity. Combined with a small, but respected Islamic community native to the country means a guy like bin Laden (sans the fatigues) will fit right in. And you will hardly consider yourself an “accidental tourist”.

Belgium: With its super-secretive banking laws, Belgium is an excellent place to hide your laundered money. In addition, being inside the European Union makes it much easier to get to (and out of) than Switzerland. Add a strong cultural scene in Brussels, the otherworldly curiousness of Brugges, dynamite food, and prices lower than London or Paris, and there is much for both you and the Al Qaeda elite to like about the cozy confines of Belgium. But then there are the Ardennes, site of the infamous Battle of the Bulge. Ski buffs can indulge themselves, but if you don’t want to be found…there are several small towns which provide a great deal of seclusion.

Trinidad and Tobago: Despite plenty of gorgeous places in the Islamic world…few are as hedonistic as Port-au-Spain during Carnival. Yes, we know, the idea of sullen, burqa-wearing Islamic women sharing the streets with vivacious Catholic dames does not seem too logical. But being an internationally-wanted terrorist is stressful, and few places besides the island paradise of Trinidad are better to truly let loose. When Carnival is not going on there’s still an odd combined of outdoor activities and indoor ones. With the bustle created by oilmen moving in and out of the country, and an Arab guy wearing espadrilles and carrying a fat wallet looks right at home.

Canada: Pro-immigration Canada has everything a Muslim person could want. And it happens so frequently so that they pick up and move to the North. Seclusion is easily found in the nearly 80% of the country barely touched by humans. The glorious Canadian Rockies, the urbane delights of Toronto, and the delicious food and culture of Quebec welcome anyone with a passport. A few casinos and other gaming dins are equally likely to impress you, but stay for the truly unique Canadian sense of tolerance, gentility, and friendly patriotism. Whether it’s on the slopes of Whistler or the bracing foam and mist of Niagara Falls close your eyes and savor the majesty of the Dominion. After all, bin Laden would too.

The Myth of Elections in Iraq

There will be no January elections in Iraq. The reason is not civil unrest; instead it is because the US Government cannot make up its mind. With less than two months to go, there is no mention of what the permanent Iraqi government is supposed to look like, or how elections will occur. One thought is that Iraqi voters will merely choose between slates of candidates for various offices. The slates would be a combination of various ethnic minorities and loyalties to prevent one group…for example the Shias…from controlling every office in the administration. Yet another school of thought argues that the Prime Minister will name his cabinet, and that the election will be between sanitized choices for the parliament. Each province would send a representative to Baghdad, who then would have one of them named Prime Minister by a President of sorts. This would allow power-sharing again between Shias and Sunnis, who would split roles. And then there’s the possibility of rigging the game even more: mock parties would be created with a certain number of members. The proportion of victory would determine the allotment of seats. And then there is the threat of a unity ticket…whereby nearly every office and seat would have candidates unopposed. Who would become prime minister if a direct election was held today? Dare we suggested Moqtada al-Sadr?

And there is the concern of the policymakers at the State Department and perhaps the Defense Department. How do you create a benign regime in Iraq that is strong enough to defend itself but not attack American interests? In some circles, that means not allowing elections at all. After all, the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz reported a conversation between Democrat Tom Lantos and Laborite member of the Knesset Colette Avital in September of 2002 where Lantos explained that while the US military would eventually leave…a pro-Western dictator would control Iraq until they “learn how to run a state”. Lantos believed that this would take approximately five to six years. While Lantos is not part of the Administration, he was one of the biggest Democratic supporters of the Iraq war in the House. He worked hard to convince other Democrats to support the President.

But perhaps the most incisive development was the resignation of both Secretary of State Powell and Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. Having taken the case for Iraq to the United Nations and losing face in the process, Powell likely had no desire to have his personal credibility undermined again if elections did not occur. Appearing on “This Week” in September, the Secretary of State seemed to contradict testimony Defense head Don Rumsfeld had told a Congressional committee days earlier. Powell spoke of needing a “comprehensive, full, free, and fair election in order to get the credibility we want it to have”. Rumsfeld had told the committee that if violence prevented the election being held in parts of Iraq, “so be it”. Assuming Condi Rice is confirmed as Secretary of State, she is likely to accede to his belief. If this is true, then deciding what provinces are ready for an election could prove an even harder decision than how to stage it. Just as US troops got the upper hand in Fallujah, insurgents began to target Mosul, which had been quiet for months.

Thus it appears the “January surprise” is that Iraq will remain election-free for a little while longer.

Biggest Success Story of 2004: Native Americans

Thanksgiving journalism is the perfect time to examine Native Americans. Seldom does it appear to happen. Perhaps this is because ever since the “First Thanksgiving” of 1621, the fate of Native Americans has moved backwards. That is, until 2004. Just as the National Museum of the American Indian opened in Washington, it appears for the first time in a long time, there is something to cheer about on the reservation. Casino gaming has yet to touch every tribe equally, but many have grown richer. Native Americans are the fastest growing racial grouping, and Native American employers are hiring at a frenzied pace. So it should come as no surprise that the National Congress of American Indians wants to build a new headquarters in DC.

What might surprise you, however, is that the largest recipients of donations by Indian gaming lost their elections. In fact, Ben Nighthorse Campbell retired after facing a Senate investigation into impropriety. But nevertheless, Native Americans flexed incredible muscle. They single-handedly revived the moribund Senate campaign of Brad Carson in Oklahoma. Their money also proved useful to Patty Murray of Washington State defending her seat from George Nethercutt. But the ultimate beneficiaries may be the tribes themselves. Revenue from gaming allows them to diversify and create wealth of all forms. At first, dividends from this wealth will likely improve schools and other dilapidated infrastructure across America’s reservation system. But once the floor is swept clean, what will be next?

One possibility: reparations for lands seized in the 19^th century. Another would be buying back that land to give displaced tribes the opportunity to live in their ancestral homes. Uncertainty rules in large part because few non-Indians in America seem to understand Native Americans. Would the tribes seek to avenge themselves for prior mistreatment? Or only build up the country by building themselves up? So far, signs point to both.

Among the most significant pro-Native American legislation is the Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act. It prevents excavators from touching Native American remains without the permission of the individual’s tribe first. When a nearly 9,000 year old skeleton was found in Washington State and identified as “Caucasoid”, local tribes invoked NAGPRA. Anthropologists desperate to study the Kennewick Man, named the town where he was uncovered, are livid that Native Americans have blocked them from studying one of the oldest human remains found in the United States. NAGPRA demonstrates the desire of its supporters to protect Native American remains from being recalled from the grave.

In Hawai’i there is evidence of a more positive impact. The Bishop Estate, a trust held by the descendants of the deposed Hawaiian monarchy, used its land holdings to create and fund Kamehameha Schools. In the process Kamehameha Schools have become the richest private primary school in America. It also refuses to allow any students who are not of some Native Hawaiian ancestry to attend. Nevertheless, the quality of education at Kamehameha is first-rate, empowering many children coming from impoverished circumstances.

So even though the new NCAI headquarters has yet to break ground, the growing stature of Native Americans cannot be denied. But as we have seen, just what impact it will have remains to be seen.

Texas Justice

House Majority Leader Tom DeLay thinks he will be indicted. He had the Republican House Conference change its leadership rules because he believes the indictment is fait accompli. But that does not mean it will happen, and even if it does, will DeLay be convicted and jailed?

Unpaid is going to say no to both. The District Attorney for Travis County (where Texas’s capital city Austin sits) has noticed a great deal of state election law violations regarding the political action committee Tom DeLay founded. The full name of the PAC is Texans for a Republican Majority (TRMPAC). The DA, Ronnie Earle, happens to be a Democrat though by all accounts the elected office of district attorney in Travis County is a non-partisan one. After nailing three top members and organizers of TRMPAC, speculation remains high that Earle will arraign both the Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives, Tom Craddick, or DeLay himself. The GOP in both Texas and Washington is ready to smear Earle into oblivion. And that should tell you something.

Earle knows convicting DeLay would be next-to-impossible. However, he may wait until he has enough evidence to arraign Craddick, and call DeLay as a witness. If there’s a real political motivation to the D.A.’s strategy, getting DeLay under oath would be the equivalent of frying him. For his part, Earle has few good options. State law in Texas is quite harsh about corporations donating to legislative elections. If he prosecutes, immediately it is a witch-hunt. If he does not investigate, he becomes just another spineless Democrat. With Tom DeLay the most powerful man in Washington, the major media is afraid to allege his demise only to be shut out of the Capitol if they are wrong. But it doesn’t look good even with the set of indictments Earle already has.

Craddick and DeLay already can be called as witnesses for the prosecutions for the current indictments. Many of DeLay’s closest fundraisers may be staring at very hard time in the Texas prison system. Not to mention that any testimony given by DeLay can be used by federal authorities for additional investigations. And then, just imagine if faced with charges, DeLay has the chance to turn state’s evidence. The ensuing rabbit-hole of corruption could lead all the way to China (literally). Earle has said investigating the case is taking a long time because he said, “it’s like watching clowns climb out a Volkswagen. There are a lot more in there than I imagined.” Lou Dubose, who co-wrote the book Shrub with Molly Ivins, speculates that the Republican Party of Texas may be guilty of even greater violations than TRMPAC.

DeLay’s actions indicate he feels an indictment is coming. This would not materially affect him, but a long trial in Austin would cause serious disruption. House Majoirty Whip, Roy Blunt, would invariably help DeLay manage things while Hot-tub Tom was away. However, should DeLay leave the House under any circumstance, there is likely to be a fight brewing between moderate and more conservative Republicans. Secondly, if DeLay’s fundraising machine is eviscerated, the Congressional races in ’06 could be ugly. But most of all, DeLay’s disappearance would eliminate the biggest enemy to John McCain. Already investigating DeLay as a member of the Indian Affairs Committee for his involvement in a tribal gaming scam with two fundraisers in Louisiana, McCain knows DeLay is the reason he lost to George W. Bush in the 2000 primary season. Seeking comprehension campaign finance reform, McCain would love nothing more than to use DeLay’s misbehavior as the central plank of 2008 run.

And that should explain more or less everything. DeLay knows even if he survives the indictments, he will have to answer under oath anything Earle wants in Austin, and anything McCain wants in Dirksen. So while the Republicans in the House circle the wagons, realize in part they already have conceded defeat.

Colin Powell: Mr. Unelectable

Colin Powell is unelectable. Judging by the rumors, you would think he was the most popular man in America. Having never held elective office before, Powell was cajoled by many to run against President Clinton in 1996. And now, some want him to challenge Hillary Clinton for the New York Senate race of ’06. We will say it again and again though; Mr. Powell is unelectable, despite being a wonderful and dedicated public servant.

In general, African Americans rarely attain national office if they are Republican. Julius Caesar Watts represented his native Oklahoma until 2002, but Mr. Watts was also a well-known college football star at the University of Oklahoma in his younger days. Maryland Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele is often-cited as another “up-and-coming” star. But nearly every other black person in elected office sits at the local level. This is not said to denigrate these offices, but to illustrate that strangely, black Republicans seem to do poorly when more is at stake. Democrats do not fair much better, failing to ever elect more than a handful of black Senators, no black President, no black governors and black congressmen only because of district gerrymandering.

Such gerrymandering also means that while Powell could run for any Congressional seat in New York State, nearly all are “safe”. To win, he would likely need to run for the Senate in 2006. And for Powell, that is a big challenge. The assumption is that Powell would magically win over African Americans to the Republican Party. He is more moderate than Alan Keyes, but seeing how dismal Keyes did in both 1996 and 2000…that is still a speculative idea. What could happen is how Alfonzo D’Amato won the Senate in the Empire State…win the swing voters upstate.

One problem…that’s a tall order for Powell, appealing to upstate New York, and specifically vote-rich Buffalo. His achievements on issues like free trade might not sit well among idled factory workers. Not to mention the fact that he did not argue very hard to allow (using free trade as a modicum) for the importation of cheaper prescription drugs from Canada. His biggest asset is name recognition, and going against Hillary Clinton that is not much of an advantage. However, name recognition is usually a force to be reckoned with. Elizabeth Dole used it to win a Senate seat in North Carolina. Both of the Bush sons found it instrumental in being elected governor.

So what is Colin Powell’s best option? He would be an excellent choice for Vice President. Dick Cheney has done much to alienate people in both his own party and outside of it. Powell is erudite but not secretive. Powell is forthright and has a decorated military career. But as much as he has served as a cheerleader, he is not an unrepentant hawk. All of these characteristics make him a tremendous contrast to Dick Cheney. No matter who runs for President on the Republican ticket in ’08, he or she ought to give the outgoing Secretary of State a call. He may be Mr. Unelectable, but he’s not Mr. Un-likeable.

Will the Senate Question Alberto Gonzales about Panama?

With the US Senate ready to begin confirmation hearings for Alberto Gonzales to the post of Attorney General, there is an air of uncertainty around the Capitol that is almost palpable. No one is quite sure how much antagonism Gonzales will face from the Democrats on the Hill. Because of Arlen Specter’s brash announcement on judicial nominees, many Judiciary Committee members may be keen to ask him about abortion and other hot-button issues. But the most important question will have to with an oft-cited memo Gonzales wrote to advise the President on observing the Geneva Conventions toward Taliban members and Al-Qaeda operatives. Gonzales has been criticized roundly for such zingers as calling provisions in the treaty “quaint”. But it appears those comments are overshadowed by a remark about precedent. As White House Counsel, he mentions that already there had been a consensus in 1989 that the Geneva Conventions did not apply to the US action taken against Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega. However, Gonzales duly notes that then President George H. W. Bush decided to observe the treaty anyway.

So who knew that the Road to Abu Ghraib went through the Panama Canal? The parallels between the American intervention in Panama and the Iraq war are surprising. Both seemed elective conflicts by President Bush with a degree of occupation as well as the capture of a former US ally running each country as a dictator. Or that both of these strongmen were involved in a global proliferation of bad things infiltrating the US. For Noriega it was drugs, for Saddam Hussein, weapons of mass destruction. In both instances, not just Gonzales but other top administration attorneys believed the Geneva Conventions did not apply. The January 2002 memorandum does not explain why.

The answer may be timing. US Marines did not arrive in Panama until December of 1989, a month after the fall of the Berlin Wall. It has been alleged, however, that preparations had been made throughout the year. Could it have been that policy advisors in Bush Sr.’s administration already believed that the Geneva Conventions were “quaint”, but that the presence of the Soviet Union meant serious repercussions if the US opted out. Yet, reluctance by the Soviet Union to intervene in East Germany demonstrated that the old “bipolar paradigm” was gone. The invasion of Panama would be the crucible to try a new strategy. That is, until Bush Sr. got cold feet and demanded the Conventions be adhered to.